Jerry Gidel | TalkMarkets | Page 4
Senior Account Executive, Grain Strategist
Mr. Gidel an Agricultural Economist with extensive experience in the brokerage industry analyzing and trading futures and options prices. Jerry began his career in 1977 as a Feedgrain Analyst & Consultant at FGL after completing graduate studies at Iowa State University in Agricultural ...more

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US Fall Exports Dip, But December Stocks May Slip On Lower 2022 Crop
Despite last fall’s 74 million in reduced US demand, the USDA’s quarterly stocks will likely be modestly lower than in 2021 because of a smaller US crop.
Pre-January Snapshot: 2022 US Corn & Soybean Output
With the 2022 commodity markets winding down, the focus is on South America’s weather impact on their crop sizes and the intensifying Black Sea conflict’s effect on the region’s grain and oilseed export shipments.
December US/World S&D Reports - Ending Stocks Had No To Little Changes This Month
The USDA again followed its past approach to their December US supply/demand updates. With the USDA not updating their 2022 final production data until January, the World Board left their US soybean and wheat balance sheets unchanged. T
US Dec S&Ds Don’t Change Much, But Slow Exports May Up Corn Stocks
With issues surfacing about their zero-Covid approach, concerns about China’s economic activity impacting their commodity import demand have become an overhanging factor across the major ag markets.
Slightly Larger US Soybean & Corn Crops Prompts Small Stocks Changes
The USDA’s November US soybean and corn yields rose this month vs the trade’s average unchanged levels. However, their ending stock changes were mixed with soybeans slightly higher and corn slightly lower than the market’s estimates.
Slightly Smaller US Corn & Soybean Crops Impacted By Varying Exports
The trade is anticipating limited changes in the US 2022 corn & soybean outputs on the upcoming November 8 USDA crop report.
Lower Soybean And Corn Crops Keep US Ending Stocks Historically Tight
The USDA again had a curveball in its October US crop and supply/demand updates. Instead of a steady to higher US soybean yield, this month’s forecast was down.
Pre-October USDA Crop Production And Supply/Demand Report
The USDA’s September ending stocks had surprises again this year.
Lower US Wheat Output And Smaller Corn Stocks
The latest US Quarterly Stocks & Small Grains reports provided some bullish surprises for both corn’s 2021 ending stocks and the size of the 2022 US wheat crop while soybean’s final stocks rose modestly from USDA’s August level for the 2021/22 crop.
US Wheat Crop/Stocks Update
Dryness slims Spring wheat, but lower feeding ups stocks.
Pre-Sept 30 Corn & Bean Stocks: Be Alert For Stronger Corn Feeding & A Smaller US Bean Crop
September’s US grain stocks have been quiet events in many years. These reports generally confirmed the USDA’s corn and soybeans old-crop ending stocks that were posted earlier this month.
September US Crop/S&D Reports - Lower Midwest Yields Pulled US Crop Outputs Down
The USDA’s latest updates revealed lower US corn & soybean yields, crop sizes and new-crop endings stocks than the trade were expecting. Adding to the 2022 output changes were substantial changes in this year’s US corn and soybean acreages.
Western Midwest Heat/Dryness Vs. The ECB Moderation - The Big Question
The impact of the drought on the western Midwest’s crops on 2022’s overall US corn and soybean outputs and stocks has the trade’s attention.
US ECB Corn & Bean Counts Couldn’t Cover WCB Heat/Dryness
This spring’s late seeding & heat/dryness this summer shaving the USDA’s initial yield to 175.4 vs 2021’s 177 bu US yield. After a record 2021 OH, IN, IL & IA tour corn yields, only MN had a higher 2022 tour yield.
Weather Remains A Big US Corn And Soybean Yield Factor
Given 2022’s low US crop ratings, the market was expecting lower August US corn & soybean crops this month.
Weather May Nip Corn & Soy Yields, But Will Resurvey Show More Beans?
Going into the USDA’s August 12 crop report, the trade talk has turned mixed about 2022’s US corn & soybean output.
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