Jerry Gidel Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Senior Account Executive, Grain Strategist

Mr. Gidel an Agricultural Economist with extensive experience in the brokerage industry analyzing and trading futures and options prices.

Jerry began his career in 1977 as a Feedgrain Analyst & Consultant at FGL after completing graduate studies at Iowa State University in ... more

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Pre-June US Corn Stock Update: Ethanol & Export Demand Are Strong, But Rains Cut Drought Area
The corn market’s focus will be split on June 30, between the USDA’s quarterly stocks report and 2021’s US acreage update, when both are released on that day.
Pre-June Soybean Stock Update: Record US Crush & Exports, But The Question Is US Crop Too Low?
After this year’s previous quarterly US soybean stocks were above trade’s expectations, the upcoming USDA June 30 report will likely get more attention than normal.
US Corn Stocks Are Lower & Beans Are Higher But Weather Is King
The USDA’s latest monthly crop and supply/demand reports had some curves.
Pre-June US/World S&D Reports - Limited 2020/21 US S&D Changes Expected, South American Crops Key
Corn’s ethanol utilization through April and the expansion of automobile travel as US vaccinations move to 70% suggests biofuel output could return to 2019 levels.
May Updates: Rising World Output Projects Higher Grain Stocks Than Expected
Market reactions to this month’s USDA larger 2021/22 world crop outputs weaken values across the major crops from pre-report levels. Weather is impacting crop levels in both Brazil and the US.
Pre-May US/World Wheat Update - US Exports Are Lagging, But Black Sea Crop Determines Prices
For the 2nd year in a row, no Kansas wheat crop tour occurred before the USDA’s May 12 winter wheat crop report. A virtual event with Kansas State’s main agronomist & district observers did provide field assessments from across the state.
Pre-May US/World Soybean Update - Output Up, But Demand Keeps US Supply Tight
With the USDA releasing their initial 2021/20 World and US supply/demand forecasts along with some old-crop revisions on May 12, S. America’s current soybean output will be a closely watched trade factor.
Brazil’s Dryness Hurts 2nd Crop Corn Likely Tightening US Old-Crop Stocks
La Nina dryness significantly delayed Brazil’s 2020 soybean plantings. This postponed their second crop safrina corn seedings past its optimal February period.
US 2020/21 Stocks Were Mixed - South American & US Weather Important
The latest quarterly reports showed the smallest levels in years while 2021 planting intentions were lower than trade’s expectations except for US wheat seedings.
Demand Tightens 2020/21 US S&Ds While Intentions Reduce 2021 Supplies
Last week’s US producer planting intentions dramatically surprised the markets when the USDA data was sharply lower than trade’s expectations for 2021’s corn and soybeans seedings.
US Planting Intentions
The USDA again provided surprises in both March 31, US planting intentions & quarterly stocks report. However, they were different than the last-minute whisper ideas that broke prices into the USDA numbers.
Pre-March Corn Stock Update - Covid Has Limited 1st Half Demand, But Chinese Demand Ahead
The corn market’s focus will be split on March 31 between the USDA’s prospective planting and quarterly stocks reports for the major US grain crops.
Slowing US Exports Leaves Highest 4th Qtr. Shipments Since 2011
The wheat market’s focus will be split between the upcoming quarterly stocks & the US producers’ prospective planting survey since both USDA reports will be released on March 31.
Soybean Stock Update
Record 1st Half US exports & crush puts stocks in bullseye.
Strong Corn & Soybean Prices Could Jump Plantings To 7 Yr Highs
Each March, the USDA surveys US producers to get an initial idea of their prospective plantings for the upcoming year. The results of this sampling will be released on March 31.
No US Stock Changes While South American Soybeans Up Slightly
The USDA returned to its traditional approach of limited changes in their March US and World supply & demand levels as many in the trade had expected.
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