Jerry Gidel Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Senior Account Executive, Grain Strategist

Mr. Gidel an Agricultural Economist with extensive experience in the brokerage industry analyzing and trading futures and options prices.

Jerry began his career in 1977 as a Feedgrain Analyst & Consultant at FGL after completing graduate studies at Iowa State University in ... more


Latest Posts
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Brazil’s Dryness Hurts 2nd Crop Corn Likely Tightening US Old-Crop Stocks
La Nina dryness significantly delayed Brazil’s 2020 soybean plantings. This postponed their second crop safrina corn seedings past its optimal February period.
US 2020/21 Stocks Were Mixed - South American & US Weather Important
The latest quarterly reports showed the smallest levels in years while 2021 planting intentions were lower than trade’s expectations except for US wheat seedings.
Demand Tightens 2020/21 US S&Ds While Intentions Reduce 2021 Supplies
Last week’s US producer planting intentions dramatically surprised the markets when the USDA data was sharply lower than trade’s expectations for 2021’s corn and soybeans seedings.
US Planting Intentions
The USDA again provided surprises in both March 31, US planting intentions & quarterly stocks report. However, they were different than the last-minute whisper ideas that broke prices into the USDA numbers.
Pre-March Corn Stock Update - Covid Has Limited 1st Half Demand, But Chinese Demand Ahead
The corn market’s focus will be split on March 31 between the USDA’s prospective planting and quarterly stocks reports for the major US grain crops.
Slowing US Exports Leaves Highest 4th Qtr. Shipments Since 2011
The wheat market’s focus will be split between the upcoming quarterly stocks & the US producers’ prospective planting survey since both USDA reports will be released on March 31.
Soybean Stock Update
Record 1st Half US exports & crush puts stocks in bullseye.
Strong Corn & Soybean Prices Could Jump Plantings To 7 Yr Highs
Each March, the USDA surveys US producers to get an initial idea of their prospective plantings for the upcoming year. The results of this sampling will be released on March 31.
No US Stock Changes While South American Soybeans Up Slightly
The USDA returned to its traditional approach of limited changes in their March US and World supply & demand levels as many in the trade had expected.
Demand Is Important, But South American Crop Prospects Are In Focus Too
The next monthly USDA output and supply/demand report will be released on March 9. The World Board traditionally hasn’t made many changes in their US & World S&D updates this month.
Despite Larger Corn & Bean Plantings, 2021/22 US Stocks Tight
The USDA’s Ag Outlook 2021/22 major US crops economic derived supply/demand forecasts were released last week. The USDA’s 2020/21 US ending stock ideas were also smaller than the trade estimates for the 3 major crops.
Pre-USDA Ag Forum S&D Ideas - Given China’s Purchases, Will The USDA Change Their 2021 Acres?
The USDA normally issues economic derived supply-demand forecasts for the major U.S. crops at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. This year’s event is being held virtually on February 18 & 19.
US/World February S&D Reports - China’s Historic US Corn Purchases Didn’t Change USDA Stocks
February's USDA US & World supply/demand reports had their changes. However, the World Board’s minimal decline in its US corn exports and their modest drop in corn’s ending stocks was the biggest surprise.
Pre-Feb US/World S&D Reports - World Demand Lead By Recent Chinese US Corn Buys The Focus
With the focus on Russia’s export duties, the US weekly average wheat shipments are the highest since 2012/13.
US January Crop/Stk Reports - Lower US Corn & Soybean Crops Tighten Stocks Another Notch
The USDA’s January US crop, stocks & supply/demand reports provided surprises to the markets again this year.
After Declining For 7 Years, US Fall Seedings Are Expected To Rise
The combination of smaller wheat output in Ukraine, W. Europe & the U.S. along with the world-wide stay-at-home orders from the coronavirus pandemic has helped advance wheat to their highest prices in 5 years.
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