Market Analysis

This year’s 7-state Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour again highlighted the differences in 2022’s corn and soybean crops. This spring’s late seeding & heat/dryness this summer shaving the USDA’s initial yield to 175.4 vs 2021’s 177 bu US yield. After record 2021 OH, IN, IL & IA tour corn yields. only MN had a higher 2022 tour yield.

With the WCB hot & dry, SD’s tour yield dropped 33 bu to 118.5 (-21%) & NE’s tour yield was off 24 bu to 158.5 (-13%) vs 2021. Conversely, OH’s tour average was cut by 11 bu to 174 while IN’s yield dropped 15.6 bu to 177.9 (-8%). IA (-3.5%) & IL (-2.85%) had modestly lower tour yields while MN jumped 14 bu to 190.4 (+13%) in 2022 without drought.

Looking at corn’s yield components, PF’s 2022 ear population per acre were only 1 bu different in 5 of the 7 states vs. 2021 with SD down 7.9 and NE 4 ears lower than last year. This year’s kernel rows again averaged near 16 like recent years with MN Up 0.4 rows while NE was down 0.6 rows.

2022’s ear length was the big factor. It was the down in every state except for MN that rose 2.4%. SD’s 1 inch drop to its lowest level since 2012 along small ears in the other 5 states lower Pro Farmer’s average yields this year.

Over the years, the USDA’s final yields have differed from the tour’s 7 state averages. Southern IL & IN aren’t sampled along with northern SD and MN. NE’s high portion of irrigated corn is reason for a higher USDA level. Stronger moisture in northern SD, MN and southern IL was PF’s reason for higher final yields while dryness in southern IN limited this final yield.

Pro Farmer is optimistic about strong IA, IL & MN finishes, but not record yields. The other 4 states lower yields pulled the PF tour’s final US 2022 yield to 168 bu vs the USDA’s August 175.4 bu level.

This year’s tour pod counts are down in 6 of the 7 states with only MN up. Despite this year’s 5% lower Midwest average pod counts & the next 30 days impacting US seed size & pod numbers, Pro Farmer is projecting 51.7 bu US yield (- 0.2 bu). This produces a 4.535 billion bu US soybean crop with 500,000 higher PF harvested acres.

What’s Ahead:

The Pro Farmer crop data provided a surprising look at 2022 US corn crop & the first data perspective of the US soybean crop. The USDA isn’t likely to reduce its September’s crop size as dramatic as PF with DC just beginning its data collection. Both crops will need additional rains to reach their potential over next 30 days according to the tour.

Hold new-crop beans sales at 45%, corn at 33% and wheat at 25%.

More By This Author:

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