Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 16
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Real Personal Income Continues Setting Records
In the face of extreme pessimism from the coronavirus, Real Personal Income posts a new high 2 weeks after revised Real Retail Sales did the same in the Jan 2020 report.
Information And Panic In The Digital Age
A combination of events produces a new historic low for the US 10-year Treasury rate at 1.27%. Many interpret plunging low rates as reflecting economic Armageddon, but there is a larger story that involves US policies to rebalance global trade.
Value Investor Index Update
The Dallas Fed 12-month Trimmed Mean PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is reported at 2.06% The Natural Rate, the long-term median earnings capitalization rate, is at 4.99%
S&P 500 Vs Change In VIX- Worse Panic Than 2008
VIX measures forward Selling vs Buying psychology as reflected in options activity. The monthly spread between VIX highs and lows calculated as a % reflects the change in market psychology for the month towards pessimism.
The Fed Does Not Set Rates...It Follows The Market
The Fed sets the Fed Funds rate to match T-Bill rates with a small premium. The premium has fallen since Paul Volcker, who typically set Fed Funds 1% above T-Bill rates.
Horizontal Rig Count Turns Higher
Horizontal Rigs now comprise 90.3% of the total with Oil Rigs at 85.8% of the total.
Real Retail Sales Resume Upward March
Real Retail Sales were $205,569mil Aug 2019, slowed to $204,442mil Dec 2019 and now have inched higher to $204,685mil in Jan 2020.
The Yield Curve Is Now Irrelevant
The Wuhan Virus scare is the 5th Recession scare since late 2018. This can be seen in the T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread as it dips below 0.20% and then goes negative producing an inverted yield curve.
Same Financial Performance, Different Market Reaction
When people talk of “market euphoria”, it just isn’t really true…. there are dozens of examples like this out there.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update - Friday, Jan. 31
Simply put, the S&P would have to hit 5,100 for it to be valued at the previous two market peaks.
Unusually High Pessimism In A Period Of Strong Economic Growth - Blame Algorithms
Algorithms are unthinking mathematical formulas. Many equate them with a form of AI (Artificial Intelligence) but they only take past relationships without conditional analysis.
E&P Activity Pushes Higher While Efficiency Stalls
E&P Indices based on employment and production indices show higher employment and higher production of oil; and natural gas pushed the activity index higher, but the trend in the efficiency index has stalled vs last month.
An Anatomy Of A Market Price Shift Using Microsoft
Microsoft, the 2nd largest component of the SP500 next to Apple, provides a good example of the ‘mind-over-matter’ irrationality of market prices that has confused and frustrated investors for centuries.
Oil Update - Thursday, Jan. 23
Little change from last week in the US Oil Situation. US Crude Inventory levels drifted towards a deficit of 28mil BBL vs the 5yr moving average.
Despite S&P Rise There Is Still Widespread Pessimism
Investors have a history seeking safety in Money Funds when pessimistic.
The New “Dr. Copper”s…”Dr. KSU Andd Dr. FAST” Indicate Higher Equity Prices Ahead
Market prices are set by market psychology. It is a complex mix of investor perspectives.
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