Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 15
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Trends Positive
The government response to COVID-19 was to shutdown person-to-person contact and isolate individuals to their homes. This was a self-imposed recession, not one historically caused by a period of economic and investment excess.
Gas Inventories/ Refinery Inputs Show An Economy Growing Again
Gasoline Inv normally falls and Refinery Inputs rise sharply to meet summer demand but COVID-19 shutdown caused a sharp rise in Gasoline Inv and a collapse in Refinery Inputs forcing $WTI below $20/BBL.
Hindsight Is Always 20/20
The most underrated tool for investors is hindsight. Hindsight as far back as one can go says buy stocks during crashes.
Cueing Up Rebound Indicators
The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) is lower as expected with the COVID-19 shutdown. This will be one of the early economic indicators once the economy is permitted to reopen.
Price Outweighs Performance
Every cycle has had its share of ‘high growth’ Momentum Investor driven issues that come to dominate the overall pricing of indices. This cycle is no different.
“Grossly Underpriced”
Job Openings data from the Bureau of Labor rose as companies scrambled to add employees to deal with the impact of the coronavirus.
Household Employment Falls
The COVID-19 shutdown is reflected in 2,987,000 drop in the Household Survey Employment report this week and a drop to an est SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for Light Weight Vehicle sales in the 14mil range.
Market Nearing 2008 Valuations
Remember how everyone in 2010-2019 wished they had invested in the market during the great recession? Well, for those who missed it, you are getting a second chance now.
Buying Equities- The Numbers Do Not Support Dire Predictions Of Lack Of Treatment Options
Treatments are being ramped up and once their effectiveness becomes known widely enough, markets will recover.
Insider Buying Hits Financial Crisis Levels
Fortunes are made in bear markets… you just don’t know it at the time.
S&P Intrinsic Value Update - Monday, March 16
An update to the SP500 Value Investor Index and the correlations to Insider Buying Signals.
30 Years Of Recession Calls That Weren’t
Economic indicators have always provided early warnings, as much as 2yrs, prior to the onset of recessions and well before market tops.
Insider Buying Explodes Higher
Among our holdings we are seeing insider buying in WMB, TPL, KMI, CODI, and LL.
Household Employment Reaches Another High…
The Household Survey reported a gain of 45,000 employed to 158,759,000, while the Establishment Survey reported 273,000 to 152,544,000. Though many are taking individual reports as a sign of the future, what is valuable is the past 6 months of data.
Look At The Big Picture...Buy Equities
The DXY Index and US 10-year Treasury rate have been falling together since mid-Feb 2020. This may signal the beginnings of a reversal of global capital flows into the US. The trigger appears to be 10-year Treasury rate falling to ~1.5%.
Another Rate Cut Coming?
The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate to a mid-point 1.12% yesterday, but T-Bills declined to 0.81% as of this morning.
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