Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners


Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand ... more

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Markets Follow...They Do Not Lead
The better approach is to identify well-managed companies and buy them when priced at historical discounts to management’s historical financial performance and sell them when priced at historical extremes.
Inventory To Sales Ratio At Historic Lows
Reported this morning with August Retail Sales is data on Inventory/Sales ratio from July.
Rail Traffic & Job Openings Rise
Job Openings and Intermodal Rail traffic continue to rise rapidly.
Oil Update - Thursday, Sept. 10
US Crude Production recovers 0.3mil BBL/Day to 10mll BBL/Day, US Crude Inventory rises 2mil, US Net Crude Exports rise 0.6mil BBL/Day.
S&P 500 Value Update
There is considerable capital likely to be deployed into equities as investor pessimism eases into optimism. Other than the FAANG issues, there are many equity opportunities yet available.
Residential Building/Employment Rebound
The trend in Residential Building Employment has a good record in forecasting recessions. Its current strength indicates a recession is highly unlikely.
Rates Rising….Stocks To Follow?
The Natural Rate is roughly where 10yr Treas rates have priced over time. Rates like every other security are dependent on market psychology.
Household Employment Rises
Household Survey Employment rose 1.35 million and the estimated Light Weight Vehicle Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate(SAAR) for July was ~14mil level.
Rail Traffic Rebounds
The next month is crucial for this data point. Is this just a catch-up traffic from shutdown or a return of sustained economic activity.
Data Vs. Headlines
There is a mix of headlines everyday investors must sort through. Most of these are emotional responses often a panic FOMO either a buy or a sell that would benefit one’s portfolio.
Truck Tonnage Near Pre-COVID Levels
Trucking Tonnage Index (TTI) was reported at 115.3 or 1.3% below June 2019. This report reflects a similar recovery in the Rail Intermodal traffic which was est to be ~2% below June 2019 level.
Rail Traffic Rebounds - Saturday, July 18
Intermodal Rail Traffic is another hard count economic indicator (as opposed to prices that are dependent on market psychology). Current trends provide support for a more rapid economic recovery than many expect.
Retail Sales Rebound
Retail Sales surprise on the upside, higher by a month-over-month 7.5% improvement. This is nearly a full recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels.
Money Flows Suggest Continued Investment Into US Markets
The St. Louis Fed has issued revised US indices the past 12 months taking into account services as well as goods with the inception 2006.
Annual Update Federal Register: Good News …
The Federal Register (FR) data is released annually mid-year for the prior year. This is one of the least noticed data releases yet remains the most important market and inflation indicator yet to be recognized.
Oil Price Effect On Industrials
Oil prices (WTI) vs. companies exposed to industrial sectors in the US provide a good example of the impact of market psychology.
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