Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more

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Stick To The US
When investing one must always, always review initial assumptions and expectations. New data emerges daily that either supports one’s original thought process or looks very different in light of hindsight.
Oil And Gas Inventories Near Seasonally Historic Lows, Despite SPR Withdrawals
Don’t expect gas prices to moderate significantly anytime soon.
Inflation: Policy Matters More Than M2
The long-held M2 connection with inflation requires a reappraisal.
Rate Spread Update
Lower 10-year rates have been a key driver of belief in economic activity is weakening.
Each “Crisis” Has Been A Buying Opportunity
Every market has multiple events deemed a ‘pending crisis’ which results in panics some longer and some shorter.
A Scary Chart
The thing about momentum is that it changes faster to the downside than the slow climb up. Be careful. Things are getting bit stretched in certain sectors.
The Oil Situation: The SPR Is Being Raided To Close US Production Deficit
The current decline in crude oil production cannot continue as the US working inventory, which is currently at historic lows, will have to rise at some point. The SPR cannot be used indefinitely to reflate working inventories.
Markets May Become Increasingly “Messy”
At any point in time, markets are messy. The current environment is particularly messy.
CPI registers a 6.24% inflation rise. Prices of everything reflect investor expectations.
Is Bitcoin The Answer To Inflation? Absolutely Not
Bitcoin cannot become a currency unless of course the US government decides to issue its own and command the banks to operate on that basis.
Rising Rates Will Help Oil
The daily rate chart shows that rate surge causes correction in issues with extreme pricing with WTI rising to mid-$70s.
Value Vs Growth
Value (VOOV) vs Growth (VOOG) vs 10yr Treasury rate provide insight into trading algorithms at work.
The US Is Still The Best Risk/Reward
The US dollar exchange rate has trade flows. Shorter-term fluctuations can be tied to geopolitical impacts as individuals adjust capital to perceived risk/return. Longer-term fluctuations include trade flows and the impact of Modern Portfolio Theory.
About Predictions ...
The wild fluctuations in WTI have had more to do with the belief that prices reflect supply/demand daily than the actual supply/demand.
The Oil Situation
US Crude and Gasoline Inventories are at/near historic low trends with hurricane Ida disruptions.
A Long Term View To Anticipate Market Peaks
Even if S&P500 EPS rise to the upper trend line, an economic peak has only occurred when the yield curve inverts in a particular fashion.
1 to 16 of 641 Posts
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