Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Truth Tonnage Rising
Some basic economic readings continue to push forward that would cast doubt on recession calls.
Real Personal Income And Retail Sales Holding
Real Personal Income and Retail Sales have been holding at recent highs despite voluminous calls for recession and claims that consumers have pulled back spending.
Fed Indices Indicate Buying Opportunity
The current environment remains, in my perspective with rising employment, as good and perhaps even better a time to invest in equities as we have had the last half-century.
Retail Sales Surprise
At some point, investors should expect the high level of retail activity to normalize to the trend pre-COVID.
Oil Prices Are Not An Economic Predictor
One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing.
It’s Just Odd Out There
Markets operate on shifting narratives. But, the headlines of monthly reports are without context other than was it in line or better/worse than expected.
Are We Done Raiding The SPR?
The market sees a recession that is not present interpreting the rise of US working inventories as a sign of economic slowing. It is not.
Sentiment Vs Fundamentals
Fundamentals remain in a strong uptrend. Ignore the consensus and trust the fundamentals.
Over 40% Of The SPR Drained
If something goes wrong it’ll be really bad really fast.
Pessimism Growing
The current environment is as pessimistic as any of past periods which proved later to have been significant opportunities to add capital to equity markets.
The Drain Of The SPR Continues
The continued decline in SPR may pressure the slow US drilling and production to remain so till conditions change.
“Administration Desperate...”
The current pace of U.S. crude production has remained flat for nearly 6 months with SPR releases.
Inflation Is Not Oil’s Fault
That crude oil prices and inflation have a correlation is long known. The issue like many misperceptions In financial thinking is which comes first and is oil causal for inflation or vice versa.
More Jobs Don’t Equal More Inflation
A point key to understanding inflation is that it is not a supply/demand issue as discussed endlessly that requires the Fed to raise rates to levels that destroy economic production and employment.
M2 Vs Inflation
Inflation occurs when currency growth exceeds the value created from that currency issuance. M2 (currency measure) expands and contracts with business cycles and government programs.
Nearly 40% Of SPR Drained Since March, 2021
We have to go back to 1984 to find SPR inventory levels this low.
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