Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Blogger and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more


Latest Posts
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Oil Notes
I continue to think the risk for a major move in oil is higher….much higher.
Capital Leaving China…
Capital has been leaving China for a while, makes for higher US$ as a global safe haven.
Mortgage Credit, Housing And GDP
The current rise in MCAI is significant and should spur home building which has been well under ½ what one would have expected in a normal recovery. The MCAI should be closer to 400. It is currently 186 and rising.
U.S. Energy Consumption, Production, And Exports At Record Levels
In 2018, crude oil and natural gas accounted for 57% of all U.S. energy production, with crude oil production seeing an increase of 17% and natural gas an increase of 12% from 2017.
2018 Oil Price Collapse Had No Impact On E&P Activity Index
US Crude Production reaches new high at 12.3mil BBL/Day and Employment in Oil&Gas extraction industries continues a decent rise in its recovery from lows of Dec 2017.
Employment & Vehicle Sales Holding, Chemical Activity Barometer & Temp Help Rising
The employment reports today show a rise in the Establishment Survey of 263,000 and drop in the Household Survey of 103,000.
S&P Value Investor Index Update
The Dallas Fed 12 month Trimmed Mean PCE reported at 1.96%.. slightly revised higher past 2 months. The Natural Rate is 4.90%. This leaves the SP500 27.4% above the Value Investor Index at $2,311.
Real Private GDP Accelerating
Real Trailing Twelve Mos GDP reported as now 3.2% and the Real Trailing Twelve Mos Private GDP 3.51%.
The Dollar And Oil
The past few days have added to the positives of extending the business cycle. Something to watch carefully to see how it all develops.
Oil Update...
Low refinery inputs continue to lead to strong gasoline draws and only a minor reduction of US Crude Inventories leaving current US Crude levels ~15mil BBL above the 5yr move avg.
“Davidson” On Fastenal
Fastenal remains a good investment at current levels and a good general market price indicator. The long term growth of FAST has been 14% with the current dividend of 2.5%.
E&P Efficiency Index
The E&P Efficiency Index is an effort to capture the changes in technology and methods employed to lower extraction costs in the E&P sector.
A New Way To Measure E&P Activity?
Rig counts are typically viewed as the holy grail indicator for drilling activity.
Markets Do Not Repeat, They Don’t Even Rhyme
Understanding investment markets requires a historical perspective of past events. It is a combination of historical review of innovations, their associated human responses and subsequent pricing through market psychology.
Upgrades Based On Momentum, Not Fundamentals
Morgan Stanley's double upgrade on RPC Inc. shows that they waited for Momentum to build before analyst shifted rating-typical example how Wall Street has become permeated with short-term Momentum thinking.
The Economic Expansion Continues
The trends in employment and vehicle sales correlate to other economic indicator signals that the US economy continues to expand.
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