Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in more

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Horizontal Rig Count Turns Higher
Horizontal Rigs now comprise 90.3% of the total with Oil Rigs at 85.8% of the total.
Real Retail Sales Resume Upward March
Real Retail Sales were $205,569mil Aug 2019, slowed to $204,442mil Dec 2019 and now have inched higher to $204,685mil in Jan 2020.
The Yield Curve Is Now Irrelevant
The Wuhan Virus scare is the 5th Recession scare since late 2018. This can be seen in the T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread as it dips below 0.20% and then goes negative producing an inverted yield curve.
Same Financial Performance, Different Market Reaction
When people talk of “market euphoria”, it just isn’t really true…. there are dozens of examples like this out there.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update - Friday, Jan. 31
Simply put, the S&P would have to hit 5,100 for it to be valued at the previous two market peaks.
Unusually High Pessimism In A Period Of Strong Economic Growth - Blame Algorithms
Algorithms are unthinking mathematical formulas. Many equate them with a form of AI (Artificial Intelligence) but they only take past relationships without conditional analysis.
E&P Activity Pushes Higher While Efficiency Stalls
E&P Indices based on employment and production indices show higher employment and higher production of oil; and natural gas pushed the activity index higher, but the trend in the efficiency index has stalled vs last month.
An Anatomy Of A Market Price Shift Using Microsoft
Microsoft, the 2nd largest component of the SP500 next to Apple, provides a good example of the ‘mind-over-matter’ irrationality of market prices that has confused and frustrated investors for centuries.
Oil Update - Thursday, Jan. 23
Little change from last week in the US Oil Situation. US Crude Inventory levels drifted towards a deficit of 28mil BBL vs the 5yr moving average.
Despite S&P Rise There Is Still Widespread Pessimism
Investors have a history seeking safety in Money Funds when pessimistic.
The New “Dr. Copper”s…”Dr. KSU Andd Dr. FAST” Indicate Higher Equity Prices Ahead
Market prices are set by market psychology. It is a complex mix of investor perspectives.
Ignore Drops In The Rig Count
People still hang on the weekly rig count data as if it is falling it is a predictor of future production declines. Flatly stated, it isn’t.
Retail Sales Trend Continues…
Since 2014, there have been 2 periods of US Dollar strength which have impacted exports and US manufacturing of high-value products. This was reflected in pauses in the Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) trend.
Oil Update - Wednesday, Jan. 15
The multi-year trends are higher US Crude Production, lower Crude Imports with the US being a Net Exporter of Crude Oil at the end of 2019. The US has been a Net Exporter of Refined Products since 2011, a trend that continues.
Policy Matters: History Of Bank Lending To Deposits, Sub-Prime Lending And Dodd Frank
The history of bank lending vs deposits shows a gradual increase from under 70% (bank reserves 30%+) to a 1990 peak of 89% which then pulled back to ~80% with the scare of the financial crash in 1987.
Policy Matters…
Many continue to forecast recession saying economic cycles cannot last this long. However, they do not take into consideration that this cycle has seen a series of new policies that are likely to last several years, driving economic activity.
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