Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more

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Oil Prices Are Not An Economic Predictor
One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing.
It’s Just Odd Out There
Markets operate on shifting narratives. But, the headlines of monthly reports are without context other than was it in line or better/worse than expected.
Are We Done Raiding The SPR?
The market sees a recession that is not present interpreting the rise of US working inventories as a sign of economic slowing. It is not.
Sentiment Vs Fundamentals
Fundamentals remain in a strong uptrend. Ignore the consensus and trust the fundamentals.
Over 40% Of The SPR Drained
If something goes wrong it’ll be really bad really fast.
Pessimism Growing
The current environment is as pessimistic as any of past periods which proved later to have been significant opportunities to add capital to equity markets.
The Drain Of The SPR Continues
The continued decline in SPR may pressure the slow US drilling and production to remain so till conditions change.
“Administration Desperate...”
The current pace of U.S. crude production has remained flat for nearly 6 months with SPR releases.
Inflation Is Not Oil’s Fault
That crude oil prices and inflation have a correlation is long known. The issue like many misperceptions In financial thinking is which comes first and is oil causal for inflation or vice versa.
More Jobs Don’t Equal More Inflation
A point key to understanding inflation is that it is not a supply/demand issue as discussed endlessly that requires the Fed to raise rates to levels that destroy economic production and employment.
M2 Vs Inflation
Inflation occurs when currency growth exceeds the value created from that currency issuance. M2 (currency measure) expands and contracts with business cycles and government programs.
Nearly 40% Of SPR Drained Since March, 2021
We have to go back to 1984 to find SPR inventory levels this low.
Openings And Quits Fall
Higher interest rates are having an impact on Job Openings and Quits, both viewed as psychological indicators rather than economic indicators.
Bottom?
There are multiple approaches to assessing overall market psychology at crucial tuning points. Two relevant correlations, the S&P500 Net Non-Commercial Futures and the S&P 500 Daily Point Change (volatility) have an extensive history.
Retail Sales And Tonnage Remain In Uptrends
The Trucking Tonnage Index remaining in an uptrend indicates that most businesses are still building levels of operating inventories.
Retails Sales And Vehicle Sales Hold
Real Retail Sales with a good history of forecasting recessions hold at recent levels. Vehicle sales show a surprise positive indicating some easing of supply issues.
1 to 16 of 685 Posts
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