Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more

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Is Bitcoin The Answer To Inflation? Absolutely Not
Bitcoin cannot become a currency unless of course the US government decides to issue its own and command the banks to operate on that basis.
Rising Rates Will Help Oil
The daily rate chart shows that rate surge causes correction in issues with extreme pricing with WTI rising to mid-$70s.
Value Vs Growth
Value (VOOV) vs Growth (VOOG) vs 10yr Treasury rate provide insight into trading algorithms at work.
The US Is Still The Best Risk/Reward
The US dollar exchange rate has trade flows. Shorter-term fluctuations can be tied to geopolitical impacts as individuals adjust capital to perceived risk/return. Longer-term fluctuations include trade flows and the impact of Modern Portfolio Theory.
About Predictions ...
The wild fluctuations in WTI have had more to do with the belief that prices reflect supply/demand daily than the actual supply/demand.
The Oil Situation
US Crude and Gasoline Inventories are at/near historic low trends with hurricane Ida disruptions.
A Long Term View To Anticipate Market Peaks
Even if S&P500 EPS rise to the upper trend line, an economic peak has only occurred when the yield curve inverts in a particular fashion.
The Coming Pipeline Shortage
All the data continues to point to the same eventuality.  We will run up against capacity restraints on the US pipeline network in the coming years.
“Inflation Is Coming, Buy Stocks” … It’s Not That Simple
The history of market prices and market P/E (Price Earnings Ratio) reveals that periods of high inflation results in P/E contraction over time.
Inflation, Weighting And Valuations All Positive For Energy Names
The Baker Hughes Rig Count is higher by 5 oil rigs with the gas rig count unchanged. This represents 138% rise from the August 2020 low.
Will The Fed Raise? Who Cares, They Do Not Control Them
Based on past behavior, the Fed is not likely to raise rates that would scare markets till T-Bill rates had already exceeded Fed Funds for several weeks.
Market Information Hierarchy
Falling 10 year rates reflects global uncertainty driving capital to US dollar-denominated debt as a safe haven.
“The Market Says…”
Taking investment cues from market price-trends is pure Momentum Investing. Price-trend investors announce their position with certainty with charts to back their assertions.
Does MPT Simply Just Produce Herd Behavior?
If one takes into account economic fundamentals and the impact of unequal protections for property rights, one will sidestep any advice from MPT and Financial Planners.
Oil/Energy Companies As Inflation Hedge
Six charts lay out the argument for using oil/energy-related issues as an inflation hedge.
The Push And Pull Of Momentum
Markets are always a composite of investor perceptions. The short-term shifts come from Momentum investors/short-term traders using price trends as a guide to forecasting the direction of the next expected direction.
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