Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners


Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand ... more


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Money Market Funds Indicator
Money Funds indicate that current market prices are closer to the major lows of the past with higher prices to come
There is a history of government spending vs periods of inflation leading many to believe that recent COVID-19 economic support cannot but raise inflation in the next few years.
Sales And Inventories
Real Retail Sales reported a historical high while many continue to discuss recession. This spike is likely to be revised in future reports but the trend from 2009 as the trend from 2009 remains intact.
Rates And The Yield Curve Rise
The US dollar is normalizing to pre-COVID levels after rising sharply during the panic of COVID.
Markets Follow...They Do Not Lead
The better approach is to identify well-managed companies and buy them when priced at historical discounts to management’s historical financial performance and sell them when priced at historical extremes.
Inventory To Sales Ratio At Historic Lows
Reported this morning with August Retail Sales is data on Inventory/Sales ratio from July.
Rail Traffic & Job Openings Rise
Job Openings and Intermodal Rail traffic continue to rise rapidly.
Oil Update - Thursday, Sept. 10
US Crude Production recovers 0.3mil BBL/Day to 10mll BBL/Day, US Crude Inventory rises 2mil, US Net Crude Exports rise 0.6mil BBL/Day.
S&P 500 Value Update
There is considerable capital likely to be deployed into equities as investor pessimism eases into optimism. Other than the FAANG issues, there are many equity opportunities yet available.
Residential Building/Employment Rebound
The trend in Residential Building Employment has a good record in forecasting recessions. Its current strength indicates a recession is highly unlikely.
Rates Rising….Stocks To Follow?
The Natural Rate is roughly where 10yr Treas rates have priced over time. Rates like every other security are dependent on market psychology.
Household Employment Rises
Household Survey Employment rose 1.35 million and the estimated Light Weight Vehicle Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate(SAAR) for July was ~14mil level.
Rail Traffic Rebounds
The next month is crucial for this data point. Is this just a catch-up traffic from shutdown or a return of sustained economic activity.
Data Vs. Headlines
There is a mix of headlines everyday investors must sort through. Most of these are emotional responses often a panic FOMO either a buy or a sell that would benefit one’s portfolio.
Truck Tonnage Near Pre-COVID Levels
Trucking Tonnage Index (TTI) was reported at 115.3 or 1.3% below June 2019. This report reflects a similar recovery in the Rail Intermodal traffic which was est to be ~2% below June 2019 level.
Rail Traffic Rebounds - Saturday, July 18
Intermodal Rail Traffic is another hard count economic indicator (as opposed to prices that are dependent on market psychology). Current trends provide support for a more rapid economic recovery than many expect.
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