Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 17
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Ignore Drops In The Rig Count
People still hang on the weekly rig count data as if it is falling it is a predictor of future production declines. Flatly stated, it isn’t.
Retail Sales Trend Continues…
Since 2014, there have been 2 periods of US Dollar strength which have impacted exports and US manufacturing of high-value products. This was reflected in pauses in the Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) trend.
Oil Update - Wednesday, Jan. 15
The multi-year trends are higher US Crude Production, lower Crude Imports with the US being a Net Exporter of Crude Oil at the end of 2019. The US has been a Net Exporter of Refined Products since 2011, a trend that continues.
Policy Matters: History Of Bank Lending To Deposits, Sub-Prime Lending And Dodd Frank
The history of bank lending vs deposits shows a gradual increase from under 70% (bank reserves 30%+) to a 1990 peak of 89% which then pulled back to ~80% with the scare of the financial crash in 1987.
Policy Matters…
Many continue to forecast recession saying economic cycles cannot last this long. However, they do not take into consideration that this cycle has seen a series of new policies that are likely to last several years, driving economic activity.
Energy Poised For A Rebound?
The argument for energy-related companies as an important part of any portfolio is based in part on valuation and in part on economic significance.
Oil Update - Wednesday, Jan. 8
Within the EIA data, this week’s report is unchanged.
LNG Exports Exploding
LNG exports are exploding which is good news for pipeline operators like KMI and WMB which are carrying the gas to export facilities.
Oil Update - Friday, Jan. 3
Current US Inventories sit well below previous levels which generated higher oil price response in past. The past never repeats as expected.
State Control (Socialist) Vs. Free Market Economic Outcomes
The evidence for positive outcomes in the only Free Market is clearly visible in SP500 performance.
Oil Update - Friday, Dec. 27
WTI has been rising since August 2019 after many negative economic forecasts and belief that we remain in oversupply with expectations prices should decline.
Chemical Barometer Revised Higher
Chemical Activity Barometer reported at 122.67 is approaching the Sept 2018 high of 123.10 with previous months again revised higher.
Real GDP And Manufacturing GDP Under Different Tax And Regulatory Environments
The US Real Manufacturing GDP as a percentage of GDP reveals the impact of Tax&Reg reductions and more recent tariff initiatives.
Real Personal Income Continues Higher
Today’s Real Personal Income (RPI) posting a new high stands in sharp contrast to the past 12 months of excessive pessimism.
From $0 To $850M A Month In 4 Years…
Quietly a new industry for export is rapidly building, LNG (Liquid Natural Gas).
The Oil Situation - Wednesday, Dec. 18
US Crude Inventories remain higher than one would expect at this point in the year as Refinery Inputs remains near the lows of the historical trend.
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