Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 19
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Mortgage Lending Continues To Evolve
Identifying the evolving policy shifts with the US Housing market is important in anticipating the impact to economic activity.
Watch The Treasury Spread
Rates are set by market psychology, not by the Fed which lags T-Bill rates by several weeks.
S&P Intrinsic Value Index
The Dallas Fed reported the 12-month Trimmed Mean PCE at 2.06% which showed a revised and slightly higher trend which leads to the SP500 being a premium of ~29% to the SP500 Value Investor Index.
GDP Slows…Blame The Strong US Dollar
The cycle trend (Jul 2009-Jul 2019) of Real GDP has slowed to 2.32% and the ttm (trailing twelve mos) has fallen to 1.97%.
Rate Cut Coming As The Fed Follows Rates Lower
Rate watchers are holding their breath and with crossed fingers hoping for a Federal Reserve Fed Funds rate reduction believing this stimulating to economic activity.
Insider Buying Indicator
Periodically it is worthwhile to take the pulse or the financial health of the market. This is accomplished by monitoring the daily pace of insider buying relative to daily market prices.
Inverted No More
Now the T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread, a market psychology driven trend, has turned positive by 0.07% after being negative by 0.51% the first week of Sept 2019. Changes such as these form major market turns.
People Don’t Recognize That De-Regulation Is Fiscal Stimulus
Regulation reduction costs nothing and has a significant positive fiscal stimulus that lasts years.
Inventory Rises With Refinery Input Slowdown…No Sign Consumption Falling
Even though there is considerable discussion of a global economic slowdown, there is no sign of slowing consumption in the oil markets.
The Fed Will “Follow” TBill Rates Lower And Cut .25%
There are presently 3 perceptions by investors watching Fed actions on the Fed Funds rate. The one belief in common is that they all believe that the Fed controls interest rates. The historical data tells the opposite.
Household Survey Employment Adds 391,000, Vehicle SAAR 17.23M Units
The data shows a continuation of the employment trend since 2009. With vehicle sales steady, these indicators characterize economic expansion.
Sentiment Vs Data; The Expansion Continues
Headlines continue to exude pessimism. It matters whether one follows hard-data or follows something derived from market psychology.
The Basis For Increase In Negative Rates Seen In The Yuan Vs US$ Vs Trade Weighted US$ Relationship
The basis for the rapid increase in negative rates is seen in the Yuan vs US$ compared to the Trade Weighted US$ relationship.
$17T In Negative Debt… What’s Next?
Current market conditions and misplaced investor pessimism make this topic worth revisiting.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update - Friday, Sept. 27
The Value Investor Index is based on long-term SP500 EPS and the Natural Rate (based on long-term economic fundamentals).
Data Vs Perception
Investing is the task of separating misperception from fact and market psychology from business and economic fundamentals.
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