Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 20
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Rate Cut?
A rate cut from the Fed is widely expected. Many believe the US has entered a recession and that rate action by the Fed is required. History suggests no cut.
Higher & Higher
Real Retail and Food Service Sales post new high with revisions higher for past months.
PMI (Sentiment) Vs CAB (Data)
Many take the PMI as a measure of manufacturing activity when it is, in fact, a survey of manufacturer psychology.
US Oil Inventories Falling Farther Below 5yr Average, Demand Not Slowing
US Crude Inventories fall to 33mil BBL below the 5yr mov avg. Previous instances when this has occurred has resulted in traders driving WTI higher.
T-Bill/10yr Treasury Spread Rising Sharply After Panic. What’s Next? A Lesson In Market Psychology
Multiple inputs to rates gave a historical equity sell signal when the T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread fell below 0.20%.
Employment, Vehicle Sales, Real Personal Income & The S&P Value Index
Household Survey Employment grew 590,000, far above the 130,000 reported by the Establishment Survey.
Higher Oil = Higher Equity Prices
Making predictions of changes in market psychology is always an educated guess based on hindsight and whether current market psychology reflects current economic trends.
Recession Caterwauling Increases
It seems that every pundit is forecasting recession claiming to see all the signs of economic weakness. It seems they have ignored record employment, record retail sales and record personal income with no changes in trends from 2009.
Recessionary Indicators
History indicates that we have never ‘talked ourselves into recession’. While pessimism lowers stock prices, market prices do not predict nor cause recessions.
E&P Activity At A High, E&P Efficiency Slows
The new pipeline capacity will cause WTI to rise as shipping costs are lowered materially.
Market Looks Like The Scene From Macbeth
Investment themes today are no less and no more confusing than they have ever been.
Misconceptions Continue…
Wall Street likes to think that markets are predictable, but understanding investment cycles are much closer to a work-in-progress.
Job Openings Have Stalled…Warning?
Job Openings and Temp Help indices are good indicators of the demand for labor.
Low Inflation & High Employment…. Tariff Impacts?
The consensus interpretation of tariffs is that higher tariffs are inflationary for the country imposing them.
Real Personal Incomes Hits Record
Real Personal Income posts a record high. The typical recessionary signs are not present even with many still discussing “Recession’.
Real Private GDP Update
2Q GDP reported this morning shows a rise in Govt Exp&Inv due to rise in military spending while both Real GDP and Real Private GDP trailing twelve-month paces have slipped.
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