Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 21
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Oil Update - Wednesday, July 24
Higher oil prices are believed to reflect stronger economic demand and therefore a good general stock market predictor. The long-term data does not show wild swings in oil demand even during recessions.
The Fed Could Do Nothing
The Fed could lower rates by its typical 25bps to 2.15% or simply wait and see if economic weakness which all seem to be predicting occurs and act once the economic direction has become better defined.
What Recession?
Real Retail and Food Service Sales reported this morning include several upward revisions and are the highest on record. Real Personal Income for May 2019 is a record high.
Bitcoin Can Never Be A Currency
Currency carries the ‘experiential cultural values’ of the society in which it is created and cannot be isolated from the process of a particular society’s invention/innovation additions to the standards of living of its citizens.
The Dollar And Trade
Capital flowing to the US from Emerging and Developed Markets are keeping the US Dollar elevated and rates unusually low.
Oil Update - Wednesday, July 10
Recent equity investor pessimism has been correlated with the belief that higher US Crude Inv reflected slowing economic activity.
Again, Central Banks Do Not Set Rates… They Follow Them
Rates are like anything else in markets. They are set by market psychology. Central banks think they control rates but they do not.
E&P Index Hits Highs And Baytown Restarting
E&P Activity Index nearing historic high March 1982 of 238.63. The March 2019 level of 237.44 continues good employment/production momentum which is likely to breach the 1982 record high shortly.
No Sign Of Slowdown
Employment reports today resulted in the Household Survey Emp setting a new high this cycle of 157,005,000 employed, rising 247,000 from May. Vehicle sales remain stable at 17.28mil SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Value Isn’t Dead…It’s Misunderstood And Oversimplified
The problem is when “value” is measured by the media for its effectiveness, it is measured by those very metrics Buffett says are flawed.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update - Friday, June 28
If your gonna compare the current market to the last two bubbles we had (internet and housing), you’re gonna have to wait until the S&P 500 hits 4700 (and earnings stay flat) before we can start having that conversation.
Refining Inputs Rising…Inventory Falling
Today the data showed US crude inventory fell 12.79mil bbl (the largest decline in almost 3 yrs). Expectations were for a 2.8M bbl draw.
Today’s Durable Goods Number Does Not Indicate Recession
Durable Goods Orders (DG) reported lower today and the past several months do not portend recession as many forecast.
Insider Buying Spiking
Insiders are not equally gifted managers nor judges of value.
FANG, S&P 500, Danaher
Every investment cycle becomes distorted by Momentum Investors. This cycle it is FANG-type issues, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google.
An Investing Process Using CVS As An Example
Enhanced analysis occurs whenever one has identified an information-quality difference between data sources which lets one allocate higher reliance to one data set over another.
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