Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 18
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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E&P Activity Index Continues Its Climb
Updated E&P Activity and Efficiency Indices using the trend of the Gas Production Index which lags other data by 2 months shows a new high in the Activity Index and a turn higher in the Efficiency Index.
HMI Hits Cycle High
The HMI, a builders sentiment indicator, was reported a cycle high 76. Single-Family Starts does not support this enthusiasm.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update - Monday, Dec. 16
The SP500 Value Investor Index has been updated and extended to 2024. Currently, the SP500 is priced at a 31% premium to the Value Investor Index(VII).
Oil Situation - Thursday, Dec. 12
Investors have been pricing WTI in the high-$50s/BBL as market psychology becomes more positive. This morning’s report dropped WTI by $0.50-$1 with some having expected inventories to be less than reported.
Tracking A Market: WTI
Expect oil prices to rise significantly as investors embrace the view that economic activity remains in expansion.
Employment Surprises To The Upside… Temp Help Rising Again Also
The economic reports released this morning should provide support for higher equity prices and an optimistic investor shift.
Deregulation Of Dodd-Frank Is Causing Mortgage Credit Expansion
The MCAI (Mortgage Credit Availability Index) is reported at 188.9. May 2019 was the previous high reported at 189.5. Since then we experienced a sharp yield curve inversion resulting in a sharp drop in MCAI to 181.7.
CAB, PMI And WTI Relationship
It is interesting to compare two market psychology driven measures, WTI and PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) with CAB (Chemical Activity Barometer), a mostly economic indicator based on chemical production and shipment activity.
Oil Update - Wednesday, Dec. 4
It appears we are exiting the fall shut-down period and refining inputs are rising which in turn cause a rise in gasoline inputs.
Not All Markets Are Equal
There is no market equal to the US. Only by delving into the basis of US self-governance does it become obvious that the US is the only market that makes sense for investors.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update - Friday, Nov. 29
The Dallas Fed reported the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE at 2.00%, revised lower from the 2.06% Oct report. Inflation has remained close to or at 2% since 2011.
Real Personal Income Remains On Trend…Higher
Real Personal Income is correlated to 3Q19 GDP (revised higher this morning), to Real Retail Sales and employment levels.
You Can Ignore The Rig Count Decline
When rig counts have fallen ~25% and your still producing record amounts of oil, a weekly decline of a few rigs is meaningless.
Chemical Barometer Revised Higher - Wednesday, November 27
The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) reported 122.45 with positive revisions for the past 3 months.
Bearish Forecasts Still Not Backed By Actual Data
The difference between Momentum vs. Value Investors is that a Momentum approach relies on market psychology while the Value approach relies on ‘hard-count’ economic and business data which drives market psychology.
Oil Update - Thursday,Nov. 14
The US Crude Oil situation is basically unchanged from last week. Low refinery input and draws on existing gasoline inventory shows we remain in the Fall shut-down period.
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