Headlines continue to exude pessimism. It matters whether one follows hard-data or follows something derived from market psychology;

“US manufacturing survey shows the worst reading in a decade”

Oct 1, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/us-manufacturing-economy-contracts-to-worst-level-in-a-decade.html

PMI is a survey and follows market sentiment while CAB is hard count of things produced and shipped. Economic activity remains in expansion. Most believe we are entering a recession while even some believe we are already in one. This is a period in which market sentiment finds reasons to be pessimistic while economic data remains staunchly positive and in the same expansion trend since 2009.

Another not well-known indicator is the Trucking Tonnage Index(TTI) which tracks ‘tonnage shipped’ by carriers comprising ~80% of US for-hire trucking. Another hard count of things shipped. TTI hit an all-time high in Aug. The slight pull-back simply keeps it on-trend since 2009. Both of these hard-data indicators are useful during periods of pessimism.