Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Sentiment And Reality Continue To Diverge
The Industrial Production Index (IP) pushes higher to 103.99. The peak was Sept 2018 at 104.11 with a PMI 58.8.
When Will The Fed Cut
The Fed Funds rate is currently 5.33% with T-Bills priced at 5.2%. Fed Funds are above short-term rates by a margin the current Fed Chair believes is sufficient.
Sentiment Can Change… Fast
Never underestimate the ability for investors to change their minds. Every time the consensus is all in on a specific theme, they change their minds.
Construction Spending Rises To Record
Total Construction Spending rises to a new record. Three of the major categories, Residential, Public, and Manufacturing posted higher levels while Power was lower.
Self-Employment Collapses
Government hiring is propping up the labor market, and self-employment has collapsed to record lows. Not healthy.
Retail Cash Rises
The latest Retail Money Funds report emphasizes the unique situation investors face today that has no precedent in history.
Data Still Murkey
Industrial Production reported a positive surprise.
PMI Often Cries Wolf
Many consider the PMI a key economic indicator. It is not. It correlates with market psychology and market prices not economics.
Construction Spending At Record Highs
Total Construction Spending holding at record highs. This report revised higher recent month’s reports and is therefore better than previously reported.
Real Private GDP Continues To Rise
The US Real GDP reported this week has some concerns that the economy is slowing.
Real Personal Income Rising, But Being Spent Less
Real Personal Income continues in an uptrend.
Durable Goods Orders Holding - Wednesday, May 29
New Orders Durable Goods rose vs last month. Aircraft orders make this series volatile but overall the new orders level is holding at record levels.
“Sentiment” Indicators... Ignore Them
Equities remain favored vs fixed income, especially those well-managed companies with discounts to historical financial performance who can pass on inflation cost profitably.
Consumer Delinquencies Rising
Both the consumer and credit cards are at levels not seen since 2012 when the economy was still recovering from the financial crisis of ’08-’09.
Sentiment And Data Not Matching
Three sentiment indicators reflected additional pessimism from the week prior after the PMI came in at 49.1, a PMI recession signal below 50.
Flush Money Market Funds Typically Mean Rally
Psychology is better at calling market lows than computers using Modern Portfolio Theory.
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