This is a volatile but good series. Pay more attention to the trend, not any individual monthly orders. Based on history, now that machinery goods are rising fast, we ought to see a push in more total goods… (the machinery will make more total orders)

“Davidson” submits:

New Orders Durable Goods rose vs last month. Aircraft orders make this series volatile but overall the new orders level is holding at record levels. Of greater importance in my opinion is that Motor Vehicles and Parts reached a record high and Machinery is holding relatively steady at record levels. Both reflect respectively new vehicle demand and demand for reshoring supply chains. The low pace of light weight vehicle sales we have experienced has been due to low dealer inventories, ~35days,  for Toyota and Honda which I turn has kept the Manheim Used Vehicle Index high. It is reported that Toyota sourced 40% of its parts from China on which it has been working to resolve. The Manheim Index is gradually normalizing but at 198.4 is likely to need enough new vehicle sales to decline to the pre-COVID trend line now near the low-160 level. I estimate the light weight vehicle level to do this is closer to 17-18mi SAAR(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from the less than recently posted 16mil SAAR level.

New Orders for Durable Goods continues to reflect broad economic growth in the US. Industrial equities have been raising guidance and continue as individual suggestions.

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