I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...
more I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades I advised an independent brokerage firm on capital markets, and yield curve analysis and portfolio management. Prior to that, I worked as senior consultant, with Peat Marwick and Partners (PMP) and A.R.A Consultants, responsible for projects in infrastructure, industrial strategy and public finance. From 1972 to 1980, I was Director of Research at C.D. Howe Institute, overseeing research in Canada-US trade, currency developments, and Canadian monetary policies.
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Latest Comments
No Way To Sugar-Coat The Economic Cost Of Canada’s Unemployment Numbers
I agree with you that they should have locked down completely and thoroughly right from the beginning the way it was done in Wuhan. Politicians in North America are not strong enough to make those decisions and stick with them
Inflation Expectations Are Rising. Will Actual Inflation Follow?
A well reasoned position on the outlook for inflation. A destruction of velocity is one of the key factors in the deflationary forces of work
MacroView: 2021 – A Disappointment Of Growth And Disinflation
The Friedman equation MV=PT always assumes that the velocity is constant. He never envisioned a collapse in velocity as we are experiencing now. That's why the equation breaks down as a forecasting tool for inflation
Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?
Arthur you're mixing a stock with a flow when you start comparing outstanding debt to GDP. There's no criteria to judge the burden of debt in that way
With 17 trillion dollars of debt trading at negative interest rates the bond market is giving an opposite signal. Namely that deflation is the order of the day. The Bond vigilantes have spoken.
The Two-Track Consumer Credit Market
I fully agree with that conclusion.
The Poison Chalice Of Low Interest Rates
The reason why interest rates are so low is because there is excessive savings. Germanyand Japan for example have excessive savings even though they havenegative interest rates.. They chose as a nation to produce more more than they consume and export the surplus. The US chose the opposite
This has been going on for decades.
Business And Households Amass Cash To Withstand The Pandemic
So far the banks have been able to attract deposits. The alternative for safe keeping is short-term government debt which is a near- form of cash.
The longer-term problem is insufficient spending and too much saving which holds back economic growth.
Are Canadian Governments Fiscally Irresponsible, Or Economically Smart?
I totally agree. Canadian response was appropriate and within the parameters of responsible fiscal policy. Big question is whether this will be enough, now that the expectations for the winter months are for a significant rise in infection rates, lockdowns and declining economic growth.
The Bank Of Canada Reorients Its Balance Sheet Towards Long-Term Bonds
There is no criteria to judge whether a central bank holds too much of public debt. The Bank of Japan owns more than 80% of its govt debt. If the debt is serviced, is liquid and can be rolled over readily then ownership is not an issue. Whether individuals or their central bank own the debt is an ideological debate, not a practicable matter in the financials. The issue of debt goes only to the faith that it is serviceable and redeemable
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It Is An Open Secret That Central Banks Are Moving Towards Digital Currencies
What will hurt the banks is the competition from fintech companies that are going to bypass the banks payment system. The Canadian banks are way behind the curve on that point.