I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...
more I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades I advised an independent brokerage firm on capital markets, and yield curve analysis and portfolio management. Prior to that, I worked as senior consultant, with Peat Marwick and Partners (PMP) and A.R.A Consultants, responsible for projects in infrastructure, industrial strategy and public finance. From 1972 to 1980, I was Director of Research at C.D. Howe Institute, overseeing research in Canada-US trade, currency developments, and Canadian monetary policies.
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Latest Comments
U.S. Inflation Over The Next 5 Years
Arthur
As soon as the BoC announced rate hike of 50bps the a Canada 5 yr nominal bond yield dropped by 25bps and today another 8bps drop
The yield is inverting fast, so why is the bank raising rates?.
UK Treasury To Bail-Out Bank Of England's £11 Billion QE Losses
Why does it matter if the BoE takes a loss from bond trading? There are no shareholders holding equity in the bank,
As The Canadian Inflation Rate Starts To Decline, Will The Bank Of Canada Pause?
Yes. The Bank is trying real hard to recapture their credibility which suffered by they slow response in 2021.
They will argue that the low unemployment rates indicate that aggregate demand is too strong and that is the reason for keeping the pedal to the metal. But food and energy are supply issues
Canada’s Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been Shrinking For Quite A While
Arthur
The last chart does not identify which group is which.
Just How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Housing Market
Yours is an American perspective which does not apply to Canada,In 2008 the Canadian housing market did not see foreclosures or price collapse. The Canadian housing market was totally unaffected and not infected by the collapse in the US, Canadian banks did not buy US mortgages
Just How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Housing Market
Yours is an American perspective which does not apply to Canada,In 2008 the Canadian housing market did not see foreclosures or price collapse. The Canadian housing market was totally unaffected and not infected by the collapse in the US, Canadian banks did not buy US mortgages
Is The Bank Of Canada About To Make A Policy Mistake?
Stagnant income has been the lot of millions this century. Now the US is polarized because all boats have not risen. Stagnation gives rise to income inequality with great political consequences
Is The Bank Of Canada About To Make A Policy Mistake?
Stagnant income has been the lot of millions this century. Now the US is polarized because all boats have not risen. Stagnation gives rise to income inequality with great political consequences
The Perils Of Forecasting Inflation
Govt spending is NOT the source of inflation. You have to look at revenues less spending--the deficit- in govt. That deficit is very small relative to the size of the economy is less than 10%. The inflation from shortages as we restart the economies is the source of inflation.
10-Year Yields And Implications
Arthur
If long rates were to move up 200bps the impact would be very damaging. Since the investment grade corporate bond spreads are very narrow--approx. 150 pbs, that market would be severely impacted and this would lead to a dramatic sell off in the equity markets. The equity, corporate and govt bond markets are vey intricately tied. A 200pbs move on the 10 yr would mean that 10 yr interest costs more than double and would be very bad for housing and all sectors relying on capital investment. It would kill any nascent recovery.
The Fed will not allow this to happen. It will, as Japan does, introduce yield curve control (YCC) and bring down long rate through selective bond buying. We have had negative real yields for more than a decade and too much of the economy relies on that being maintained. I would not go short on the bonds for this reason.