Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E The Year The Bond Market And The Bank Of Canada Parted Ways
The Canadian bond market has fully inverted such that all bonds from 3- months to 30 years are less than the bank rate. Given that inflation is running around 2 %, Canadian bonds are negative in real terms.
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E Entering The Era Of Negative Real Rates Of Interest
Regardless of what the equity markets are saying about the near-term outlook, the bond market is giving off an unmistakable signal that growth is going to be so slow, that inflationary expectations have essentially collapsed.
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E When A Decline In The US-China Trade Deficit Is Not Necessarily A Good Thing
The U.S. trade deficit in manufactured goods with all countries was relatively unchanged in 2019 at close to $1.048 trillion.
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E Canadian Long-Term Interest Rates Tell The Real Story For 2020
Beginning in January 2019, the nominal returns on Canadian bonds over 20 years was 2.7% and today the rate sits at 1.45%.
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E For The Bank Of Canada Hope Is The Only Strategy
This morning the Bank of Canada announced its policy rate decision. As expected, it kept the overnight bank at 1.75%, yet it gave every indication that the facts have indeed changed.
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E Canadian Household Leverage Has Been On The Decline For A Decade
A constant theme running through the financial press is that Canadians are deep in debt, that we are heading for a major debt crisis and that the government should do something about curtailing the growth of household indebtedness.
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Comments

Latest Comments
The Year The Bond Market And The Bank Of Canada Parted Ways
5 days ago

Kudlow statement is a total contradiction in terms. I never had much respect for his his understanding of economics. If the economy were so strong then why is there a flight to safety? Strong economies have upper sloping yield curves.

The Canadian bond market is taking its cue from the US bond market which is also inverted. At the same time oil and other commodity prices are weak. Manufacturing has been declining for nearly six months straight. And Canada now feels a chill from China and its impact upon worldwide supply chains. The Canadian stock market hit an all-time high earlier in the week so we can't say there's any flight to quality

Simply bond investors have a completely different outlook on the future compared to stock market investors.

US Government Escalates Trade Hostility
9 days ago

Gary, I agree. The issue is that there is no American telecom that is at the forefront of the 5G technology. The US dropped the ball awhile ago and assumed that 5G was a longer way off in the future. Meanwhile, Chinese and European developers marched ahead.( I am biased. I have a Huawai phone and find it better and much cheaper than iPhones. Do I think the Chinese are spying on me??)

US Government Escalates Trade Hostility
9 days ago

Gary you are correct.Israel's tech sector is deeply involved with China,especially in AI.

As for Flat Broke the US has a long history of not acting in its best intersts. By starting a trade war which the US does not know how to end is a perfect example of not acting and your own best interest.

Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
1 month ago

Not so sure about Trump power. One of the largest BMW factories in the world is in Spartsburg in he Carolinias has over 10k workers. One of the reasons that US cannot follow through with tariff threats especially in Trump country.

As they say "it's complicated"

For The Bank Of Canada Hope Is The Only Strategy
1 month ago

Thanks. I just don't get Poloz. He staring at recession and just closes his eyes. Given the monetary lags we will not feel the effects of any cut in rates until mid 2021.

Trump, China And Phase 2 Negotiations
1 month ago

Gary an excellent overview of the biggest non tariff barrier to trade that is used by every country

You are right China is not going to give up the commanding heights derived from subsidies

And US farmers cannot exist without farm aid. Both conditions are indemnic in their respective nations.

Stocks Vs. Bonds: Why We Own Them & You Should Too
2 months ago

Huh? You say Treasuries " might not be liquid, if liquidity is part of your goal". Treasuries are most liquid asset on earth. The investor may not like the yield he gets upon a sudden liquidation, but that is no different than in the case of equities.

What Should We Make Of Weak Investment In The US Economy?
2 months ago

Arthur

Business investment and govt spending are slowing and together that accounts for 35% of GDP. Those segments are dragging down GDP and more importantly are reducing long term potential as the capital stock wears down and overall productivity falls---which is the most serious issue.

Not All Corporate Earnings Are Measured In The Same Way
4 months ago

One way to stop this lying is to tax the corporations on the inflated numbers.!

The Mystery Of China’s Third-Quarter Growth - Resilience Or Gloom?
4 months ago

This puts the Chinese growth issue in perspective. Much of the negativity surrounding China's fortunes involves a wish, on the part of many Americans, to prove that the China is suffering from the trade wars. As you rightly point out, US growth has been the major victim in the trade conflict, not China.

Also China is in the midst of altering the ratio of domestic consumption to investment, so some slowdown is expected. The betting odds favour China engineering a soft landing to a lower growth path, but hardly one to characterize as a major reversal of fortunes.

The US landing may be not be as smooth, especially with such erratic policy making that results in knee-jerk reactions that interfere with longer term investment decisions.

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HCG.TSX Home Capital Group
INDEX Giant 5 Total Index System Investor Cl
V Visa Inc.

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (30 years 11 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)