Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

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E Keep An Eye On World Currency Movements For The Next Stage Of The Trade Wars
Economists are always looking to see what price adjustments are taking place, and one of the most important changes is now taking place in the currency markets.
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E The Risks The Bank Of Canada Runs In Not Cutting Rates
Worldwide central banks are taking a more open-minded approach towards interest rate cuts. The lone holdout, so far, is the Bank of Canada (BoC)
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E How Long Can The Bank Of Canada Resist A Rate Cut?
When the Bank of Canada governing council meets next week, it will be greeted with a very uneven economic report, one in which the past may not necessarily be prologue.
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E Canadian Banks Brace For A Downturn In The Economy
The Canadian banking community is leaving little to chance as it prepares for a downturn in the economy.
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E Has Monetary Policy Come To The End Of The Road?
Now that the Jackson Hole confab has ended, our attention turns to one basic question: With interest rates this low, do central banks have any power to change the course of growth and inflation?
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E The Bank Of Canada Will Have To Face The Music As Summer Comes To A Close
Developments in the collapse in bond yields have caught the attention of policymakers worldwide. Calls for additional rate relief have come from varying quarters in the US.
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Comments

Latest Comments
G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger
7 days ago

For many bad reasons he chooses this weapon. First, it requires no Congressional approval which suits his dictatorial bent. Second, he falsely believes that if he raises the price of imports, multinational companies will return to the US and produce there. No company is going to move from a $5/hr wage country to a $30/hr wage country to manufacture. We are hearing of US multinationals moving from China to other low-cost Asian nations, so Trump will eventually place tariffs against Thailand, or Taiwan. Third, he believes it can bludgeon a trading partner into submission .." trade wars are easy to win". He falsely believes that the Chinese government is responsible for Apple producing iPhones in China when it was all along a corporate decision to move to a low-cost producer. The late Steve Jobs was once asked by Pres. Obama when those Apple jobs in China return to America. Jobs told him point blank " never".

Has Monetary Policy Come To The End Of The Road?
7 days ago

It is a figure of speech, envisioning that a helicopter flies over the country and drops dollar bills for people to pick up freely. The term is used to suggest that what is needed is for every individual to receive free dollar bills in the expectation that he/she will spend all the money, save nothing, and in this way stimulate growth. It is a desperate attempt to get people to spend and grow the economy.

G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger
7 days ago

Tariffs are used in countries that are in a state of nascent industrialization, 3rd world countries, to promote domestic industry. The tariffs are applied on luxury items and non-essential consumer products, not on basic materials used in developing their industry. Tariffs are used by these countries to promote import substitution and help promote the creation of a domestic industry.

Now, in the case of the US, none of these conditions apply. The US gave up a long time ago on producing consumer products because it became a high-wage, high -cost producer of consumer and industrial goods. Tariffs were never meant to support high cost producers, but nascent industries.

Has Monetary Policy Come To The End Of The Road?
24 days ago

My real concern is the EU where fiscal stimulus is badly needed and so far has been rejected by Germany, the leader of the pact. It will be interesting to see how soft the German economy becomes before they are forced into fiscal stimulus.

i do support helicopter money. It is simple, straightforward and effective. The US could try an approximation of helicopter money with a massive cut in payroll taxes. But I gather that the political climate is not there for this idea.

G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger
25 days ago

A tariff is not inflationary but a one time jump in the price of a product. Thereafter it has no impact on future prices. Tariffs are deflationary over time because the permanent upward shift in the price level reduces demand over demand from what would have been in the absence of the tariff. This is what driving financial markets lower,

Negative Yield Curves To Infinity And A Reader Question Regarding Fraud
26 days ago

What exactly is " monetary fraud" by a central bank? How does work and who is defrauded?

Thinking Aloud About Bank Margins
28 days ago

Your analysis is spot on. The issue of margin compression and zombie-like behaviour is probably the biggest fear in the US banking system, although it goes unspoken. How long the US can withstand the wave of negative rates washing over Europe and Japan is probably just a matter of time.

Central Banks Should Forget About The 2% Inflation Target
1 month ago

Arthur

I am in full agreement

Perhaps a target of nominal GDP would be better, implying Keynes' s money illusion is the key variable.

Putting NGDP Into Macro Models
1 month ago

A much s implier and effective approach to setting monetary policy.

The Fed should recognize that it does not matter which component of NGDP....price or volume. Now the Fed has keep three data points in view...GDP, prices and unemployment. One tool to solve three equations.

Canadian And US Economic Trajectories-Convergence Or Divergence?
2 months ago

Arthur

"At its recent policy meeting, the Bank of Canada held its key policy rate unchanged, citing the same slower world growth and trade concerns expressed by the Federal Reserve". Does that mean the the BoC would raise interest rates if trade concerns were no longer out there? Why did the BoC not move down---because it believed that growth was going to be strong?

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Norman Mogil Commented on G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger:

For many bad reasons he chooses this weapon. First, it requires no Congressional approval which suits his dictatorial bent. Second, he falsely believes that if he raises the price of imports, multinationa...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Has Monetary Policy Come To The End Of The Road?:

It is a figure of speech, envisioning that a helicopter flies over the country and drops dollar bills for people to pick up freely. The term is used to suggest that what is needed is for every individua...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger:

Tariffs are used in countries that are in a state of nascent industrialization, 3rd world countries, to promote domestic industry. The tariffs are applied on luxury items and non-essential consumer pro...

more
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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (30 years 6 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)