Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

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E Shrinking Global Liquidity Raises A Red Flag In The Equity Markets
What are some of the signs that the decline in liquidity is having an adverse impact on the U.S and world economies?
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E BoC Stubbornly Clings To The View That Rates Have To Rise
Although the Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 1 ¾ %, citing a variety of factors holding back growth and inflation, it continues to champion the need for higher interest rates over time.
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E The Canadian Credit Markets Put A Large Damper On The Housing Market
The life and death of any housing market depends on the support of the credit markets.
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E What Should Influence Canadian Investors In 2019
As the new year rolls in, Canadian investors are going to be inundated with numerical forecasts for GDP, interest rates, stock exchange indices and host of individual industries.
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E This Was The Year Bond Yields Were Suppose To Take Off
Forecasting is generally a mugs' game, no more so than in forecasting interest rates.
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E ECB Draghi's 'Whatever It Takes' Is Not Enough
It has been five years since ECB President Draghi defiantly stated that the “ECB is ready to do whatever it takes” to combat the then looming debt crisis in the eurozone. The crisis has long past, but the eurozone remains mired in slow growth.
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Shrinking Global Liquidity Raises A Red Flag In The Equity Markets
3 days ago

I am not sure how else one can interpret that sucking out $50b a month as anything other than tightening. Bernanke warned against shrinking the balance sheet until interest rates were ' normal' --presumably much higher than today's because the normal rates would signal that growth was strong and tightening would not slow growth. However, the Fed started that process too early and the equity markets are not suffering from this withdrawal and from trade policies gone amok and China sliding. So, maybe the bad BBB debt is caused by the trade fight or by general slowing. Regardless, withdrawing cash from the system is not helping.

Shrinking Global Liquidity Raises A Red Flag In The Equity Markets
3 days ago

My point is that on the corporate side, which means "investment" in the GDP component, money is getting tighter and more expensive. That segment has been increasing debt levels without an commensurate increase in output ( the marginal productivity of capital investment has been falling). We know that the tax cuts did not go into debt reduction or into growing the capital stock--- it was rewarding shareholders. So, the existing debt needs to rolled over and new debt is needed for new investment. Now, the central banks are making matters worse. and that is reflective in the spreads and the deteriorating quality of the lender. Today, Gundlach argued that about half of BBB bonds, the lowest segment of investment grade should be downgraded to junk which tells you how bad is the quality of debt. That would result in more liquidation by funds who cannot hold junk debt. Remember US corporate debt stands at $6 trillion so there is a lot of debt to negotiate out of.

A GDPNow Chart Worth Watching
10 days ago

This is a very good discussion on the role of inventories in the business cycle. Most recessions can be traced to mismatched inventories to sales. This is certainly happening as the Trump tariffs play havoc with supply chains in basic industries. So you are right to bring this issue tonthe fore.

Question Of The Day: Is The Bond Bull Market Over?
10 days ago

True bond investors look at decades to determine secular trends as "bear" or "bull" markets, not 2-5 year movement in yields. So, your chart showing a tiny up tick in yields from July 2016 hardly constitutes any meaning in the context of the secular trend. It is just a blip which may be eliminated in large measure by the 2019-20 recession.

The Canadian Credit Markets Put A Large Damper On The Housing Market
13 days ago

It is starting to hurt. I have heard of many mortgage brokers leaving the industry because they cannot service clients. At some point the authorities are going to have to relent on the rules. The worse rule is a new borrower has to show ability to carry a mortgage at 200 bps above the posted Bank of Canada rate for mortgages and that rate is already above the market. An example of bureaucrats not understanding the market they regulate.

Why Gundlach Is Still Wrong About Higher Rates
24 days ago

Gundlach does not understand the Keynesian concepts of how excess savings will suppress economic growth ex post. At 6% interest and 2% inflation consumption will decline in favour of investment and this will result in excess capacity. That, in turn, will be disinflationary and the 10yr rate will fall sharply to a new, lower equilibrium

In this article: TNX
This Was The Year Bond Yields Were Suppose To Take Off
27 days ago

Read David Brooks today in the NYT. He mentions how Canada

Is able to redistribute income through fiscal policy and universal health care to the benefit of the middle class. It can be done if there is a political will. Canada has had universal health care since 1965.

This Was The Year Bond Yields Were Suppose To Take Off
27 days ago

We need a better distribution of income and wealth. Deflationary actions will not bring that around. Taxation and spending policies can re-distribute swealth and income and have been in the past many time. Alas, the current US govt is doing precisely the opposite.

This Was The Year Bond Yields Were Suppose To Take Off
28 days ago

You are right. I think the stock market recognizes the deflationary shocks and then looks at the Fed and then says in effect " can't you guys read the handwriting on the wall?"

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Norman Mogil Commented on Shrinking Global Liquidity Raises A Red Flag In The Equity Markets:

I am not sure how else one can interpret that sucking out $50b a month as anything other than tightening. Bernanke warned against shrinking the balance sheet until interest rates were ' normal' --presuma...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Shrinking Global Liquidity Raises A Red Flag In The Equity Markets:

My point is that on the corporate side, which means "investment" in the GDP component, money is getting tighter and more expensive. That segment has been increasing debt levels without an commensurate in...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on A GDPNow Chart Worth Watching:

This is a very good discussion on the role of inventories in the business cycle. Most recessions can be traced to mismatched inventories to sales. This is certainly happening as the Trump tariffs play...

more
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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (29 years 10 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)