Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Why Stagflation Is Not In Our Future
We know that the recovery path from this economic collapse will be slow, but will it be accompanied by inflation?
Read
E Government Bonds Prices Take A Well-Earned Pause
Volatility is a trader’s friend. So, bond yields in the doldrums leads to lots of speculation as to future trading profits.
Read
E The Bank Of Canada Digs In For A Long, Slow Recovery
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is now signaling that the nation is going to endure a very long and uncertain recovery from the coronavirus shock.
Read
E Canada Has The Fiscal Capacity To Finance The COVID Created Deficit
Canada’s Finance Minister, Bill Morneau, released a long awaited ‘snapshot’ of the federal government support during the economic crisis.
Read
E The Savings Rate Is The Key To An Economic Recovery
As the coronavirus plays havoc with the world economies, households have responded with a huge surge in domestic savings.
Read
E Canadian Banks Remain Vulvernable Despite Clearance From The Regulators
One sure way the banks will be able to withstand a deep downturn is for the regulators to reduce required capital reserves.
Read

Comments

Latest Comments
Why Stagflation Is Not In Our Future
11 days ago

With interest rates at 0% and possibly going negative there is no real burden to carry the interest cost indefinitely.

The FED will continue to buy the debt and will not present it to the treasury department for payment but will just accept a reissuing of the debt by the treasury department and continue that indefinitely. So there really isn't a day of reckoning. Governments don't die and that's why comparison between an individual and government is not valid in this case

Why Stagflation Is Not In Our Future
12 days ago

It is not a matter of the constant inflation rate that is a concern. The rate is slowing down...or disinflation. This is what scares the Fed because it moves further away from their target. Disinflation is very insidious and affects everybody's decisions regarding consumption or production

Canada Has The Fiscal Capacity To Finance The COVID Created Deficit
1 month ago

Maybe the answer is that we have a left of centre govt. The US should consider that option in November.

Canada Has The Fiscal Capacity To Finance The COVID Created Deficit
1 month ago

I agree. We have closed the border and try to keep ourselves safe. And the population at large is cooperating with the government regarding openings

The Federal Reserve Massive Buying Of Government Debt
1 month ago

A very good overview of the issue of monetizing debt. As you well explained it it is not a cardinal sin but sensible monetary policy at a time of enormous financial stress.

COVID-19 Impact On The Canadian Labor Market
2 months ago

The stock market is not the economy. It can behave irrationally on the belief that everything will get back to the pre covid days. Many of us think that the world has changed permanently and that growth will be slow and painful as we adjust to new environment. The real impact of the virus will hit in the fall when economy will continue to be weak and reality will set in.

Where Has All This Printed Money Gone To?
2 months ago

I agree that the definition of money is changed considerably in this digital age. But I think there still is a liquidity trap in that liquidity is held closely by the banks

It could get worse as the bank's contend with loan losses and the fear of a worsening credit environment.

Your point about the intersection of demand and supply is right on. There is a weakening supply supply and also a diminished demand as the economy slows down. A rather dismal Outlook.

Where Has All This Printed Money Gone To?
2 months ago

Everything just goes at a slower speed--- hence the term velocity.

Bond Yields And Monetary Velocity
2 months ago

The decline in long term rates is a function of deflation and the elimination of the term premium. Both are a reflection of falling velocity. Velocity is driving yields down.

Bondholders Are Rewarded As Deflation Starts To Take Hold
3 months ago

Worse yet it's all being plugged with debt. Nobody seems to want to raise equity to ward off insolvency because it will mean a watering down of share values. The system is becoming totally corrupted by the obsession with share values.

In this article: TLT
1 to 10 of 172 comments
1 2 3 ... 18

STOCKS I FOLLOW

MSFT Microsoft Corporation
SQ Square
TCEHY TENCENT HOLDINGS ADR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts

Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (31 years 5 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)