Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Canadian Banks Seem To Be At A Point Of Inflexion
Canadian banks have always displayed great strength even during the world financial crisis of 2008, yet this past year the banking community is facing a new set of challenges as it adapts to rapid changes in the marketplace.
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E The Mirage Of Canadian Economic Performance
Much of Canada's growth potential is derived from population growth and not from productivity gains. It is the latter measure that is the best gauge of economic performance. Let us take a closer look...
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E The Bloom Is Off The Rose With Canadian Banks
Canadian banks are not looking forward to fiscal 2020 as they set aside higher loan loss provisions, cut jobs and other expenses and maintain lending in a very slow growth environment.
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E Dark Clouds On The Corporate Bond Horizon
The surge in corporate debt in 2019 has now become a major concern regarding financial stability, according to a recent report by the IMF.
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E The Bank Of Canada On One Side And The Economy On The Other Side
The Canadian bank stocks have enjoyed a big rally this quarter, largely on the shoulders of the Bank of Canada (BoC)’s steadfastness in keeping its policy rate unchanged.
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E The Canadian Stock Market Takes Leave Of The Economy
It seems that the Canadian investors pile into the stock market at considerable risk.
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Comments

Latest Comments
What Should We Make Of Weak Investment In The US Economy?
1 hour ago

Arthur

Business investment and govt spending are slowing and together that accounts for 35% of GDP. Those segments are dragging down GDP and more importantly are reducing long term potential as the capital stock wears down and overall productivity falls---which is the most serious issue.

Not All Corporate Earnings Are Measured In The Same Way
1 month ago

One way to stop this lying is to tax the corporations on the inflated numbers.!

The Mystery Of China’s Third-Quarter Growth - Resilience Or Gloom?
1 month ago

This puts the Chinese growth issue in perspective. Much of the negativity surrounding China's fortunes involves a wish, on the part of many Americans, to prove that the China is suffering from the trade wars. As you rightly point out, US growth has been the major victim in the trade conflict, not China.

Also China is in the midst of altering the ratio of domestic consumption to investment, so some slowdown is expected. The betting odds favour China engineering a soft landing to a lower growth path, but hardly one to characterize as a major reversal of fortunes.

The US landing may be not be as smooth, especially with such erratic policy making that results in knee-jerk reactions that interfere with longer term investment decisions.

Canada's Job Creation Still Unusually Strong
2 months ago

The job numbers are worthless in setting policy.They are equivalent to a gain of 800k in a month in the US.. a number never achieved post 2008 if not furthet back in yome. Also half the jobs are partime and they are low paid and offer very benefits.

The Canadian banks are increasing their loan loss provisions because they do foresee tough times ahead. Credit available is tightening.

The Bank of Canada has painted themselves into a corner and will be forced to follow the Fed and ECO in easing by year end.

Flashback To The 70’s
2 months ago

The Fed rate cut will not be much of any sugar high. If the Fed is forced to approach zero bound rates, the European and Japanese experience proves that it is really game over for monetary stimulus. And the US has no appetite for fiscal stimulus, not a sanguine prospect.

In this article: IBB, TAN, TLT, XLY
G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger
3 months ago

For many bad reasons he chooses this weapon. First, it requires no Congressional approval which suits his dictatorial bent. Second, he falsely believes that if he raises the price of imports, multinational companies will return to the US and produce there. No company is going to move from a $5/hr wage country to a $30/hr wage country to manufacture. We are hearing of US multinationals moving from China to other low-cost Asian nations, so Trump will eventually place tariffs against Thailand, or Taiwan. Third, he believes it can bludgeon a trading partner into submission .." trade wars are easy to win". He falsely believes that the Chinese government is responsible for Apple producing iPhones in China when it was all along a corporate decision to move to a low-cost producer. The late Steve Jobs was once asked by Pres. Obama when those Apple jobs in China return to America. Jobs told him point blank " never".

Has Monetary Policy Come To The End Of The Road?
3 months ago

It is a figure of speech, envisioning that a helicopter flies over the country and drops dollar bills for people to pick up freely. The term is used to suggest that what is needed is for every individual to receive free dollar bills in the expectation that he/she will spend all the money, save nothing, and in this way stimulate growth. It is a desperate attempt to get people to spend and grow the economy.

G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger
3 months ago

Tariffs are used in countries that are in a state of nascent industrialization, 3rd world countries, to promote domestic industry. The tariffs are applied on luxury items and non-essential consumer products, not on basic materials used in developing their industry. Tariffs are used by these countries to promote import substitution and help promote the creation of a domestic industry.

Now, in the case of the US, none of these conditions apply. The US gave up a long time ago on producing consumer products because it became a high-wage, high -cost producer of consumer and industrial goods. Tariffs were never meant to support high cost producers, but nascent industries.

Has Monetary Policy Come To The End Of The Road?
3 months ago

My real concern is the EU where fiscal stimulus is badly needed and so far has been rejected by Germany, the leader of the pact. It will be interesting to see how soft the German economy becomes before they are forced into fiscal stimulus.

i do support helicopter money. It is simple, straightforward and effective. The US could try an approximation of helicopter money with a massive cut in payroll taxes. But I gather that the political climate is not there for this idea.

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (30 years 9 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)