Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Canadian Banks Are Stumbling In A Weakened Economy
It is often thought that as the Canadian banks fare, so does the Canadian economy. This reference is very apt given the banking results for the first half of the year.
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E Trump’s Trade War Sets Up A World Of Deflation
Trade wars always lead to deflationary conditions, and this current American trade war with China will prove no different from those in the past.
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E The Canadian Job Market Is Far From Robust
The Canadian labor market displays all the characteristics of a market in dynamic change as full-time work gives way to the rise of part-timers--- the ‘gig’ economy seems to be in full force in Canada.
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E When Inflation Does Not Go Your Way
It has become an all too familiar refrain from central bankers, when inflation falls short of their target, that the explanation is simple.
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E US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation
Halving the rate of inflation is a major downward shift. To bond investors, the GDP number was not nearly as good as the headlines would suggest.
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E Reluctantly The Bank Of Canada Puts Rate Hikes On Indefinite Leave
While the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold the key interest rate steady was expected, the Governor revealed a lot of concern about why he is very cautious about the longer-term outlook.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Will China Resort To “Nuclear Option” In Trade War?
1 day ago

The more important issue is : what is China doing with US$ is amasses every year from its trade surplus?. Does it buy more UST or does it buy US private assets? The US$ must be re-cycled as they come in--- this is independent of the existing stockpile of US$ in the form of UST.

For all that took place with the Plaza Accord in the late 1980s, Japan continued to run large trade deficits with the US and continue to amass US$.

Trade War; Easier For Chinese Than Americans
2 days ago

Gary, a lot of good arguments on the injury to Americans from the tariffs. You are right about the nonsense from Blinder. That macro number tells you nothing about the structural impact of trade ( just ask farmers or specialty steel users)--- I am surprised that Blinder said that.

Turning to the Chinese side, one thing to consider is : China jumps the tariff wall by moving production to other Asian countries and collecting the profits and economic rents from moving offshore. Vietnam and Laos can and would love to have more exported production. Another bigger issue is the restructuring of the Chinese economy. Now China has high savings rates--around 25%. It is pursuing policies to increase domestic consumption and that shift would divert more production from the export market to domestic buyers while maintaining national output growth at the same rate. There are still about a 1 billion Chinese who do not live in the richest 10 biggest cities. These people are ripe for more consumer goods made domestically.

Last thing: Xi Jinping will be in power for life--at least 25 years. He will wait out Trump and any future misguided presidents

Tariff Man Trump Fooled Wall Street From The Start
9 days ago

It is starting dawn on many that these tariffs are here for the long haul. Yet govts have not introduced measures to ease the adjustment e.g. how are farmers to be compensated for permanent market loss. The US govt does not understand the need for an adjustment mechanism has to go hand in hand with a permanent shift in trade patterns,

When Inflation Does Not Go Your Way
24 days ago

You would never know that is the case reading their statement and answers at their press conference. Every monthly report on jobs gets the most attention from average hourly wages and work week-- all geared to detect any inflationary pressures from the labour side. This obsession needs to go away

A New Indicator (The LIUR) Suggests That The American Job Market Still Has Some Slack
27 days ago

Arthur the 100 hours capacity for work makes little sense for the denominator... 18 hour days?

Does Economic Stability Contribute To Growth?
1 month ago

Governments would like higher, not lower inflation. Higher inflation means greater tax revenues--- taxes are based on nominal income, not real income. So, higher inflation would reduce deficits.

Time To Abandon The 2% Inflation Target
1 month ago

Normal is a relative term when it comes to looking at interest rates. In the 1960s normal was inflation at 3%, 1 yr bonds at 5%, 10 yr bonds at 6% and real growth 6%. Normal today is inflation,

1 yr at 2.5 %, 10yr at 2.75% and real growth at 2%. Both times the economy is balanced with respect to inflation and unemployment ( a proxy for growth) Yet, i can recall in the 1960s bankers getting nervous that inflation was above 2%--- that target again-- and in Canada we put into place a Wages and Price Commission to report on whether wages or prices were getting out of line. The saving grace then was strong economic growth---- something we do not have now, hence this obsession with inflation. If growth were 5-6% would the Fed sweat about an inflation rate of 3%? I doubt it

The Bank Of Canada Engineers A Recession By Curtailing Credit
2 months ago

We have lots of safety nets such as universal health care that can soften the blow.My sense is that housing will hold well because we are accepting 400k immigrants who need housing in 2019.

Recession Lurks. What Will The Fed Do?
2 months ago

The Fed is also working against cutting rates because it will still do quantitative tightening to the tune of $50 billion a month until Sept--- that is, withdrawing about $350 billion from the money supply. In this regard, the Fed is behind a different curve in the sense it is too late to forestall a recession because it insists on tightening lending conditions.

The Bank Of Canada Is Throwing In The Towel On Future Rate Hikes
2 months ago

The headache would be nowhere near the one we face now. A US president ticked off with Canada, so what?, Canadians have no respect for him. Right now some Canadians are unlawfully jailed in China and the Canadian govt is being sued by Meng for abuse of the law. Do we need this headache?

1 to 10 of 130 comments
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Norman Mogil Commented on Will China Resort To “Nuclear Option” In Trade War?:

The more important issue is : what is China doing with US$ is amasses every year from its trade surplus?. Does it buy more UST or does it buy US private assets? The US$ must be re-cycled as they come in...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Trade War; Easier For Chinese Than Americans:

Gary, a lot of good arguments on the injury to Americans from the tariffs. You are right about the nonsense from Blinder. That macro number tells you nothing about the structural impact of trade ( just as...

more
Norman Mogil Commented on Tariff Man Trump Fooled Wall Street From The Start:

It is starting dawn on many that these tariffs are here for the long haul. Yet govts have not introduced measures to ease the adjustment e.g. how are farmers to be compensated for permanent market loss....

more
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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (30 years 2 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)