Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Canada’s Employment Situation Takes A Turn For The Worse
Canada’s recovery process was severely knocked on its heels with the revelation that 207,000 jobs were lost in April.
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E Canada Is Challenged To Fill The Hole Created By The Pandemic
Let me describe the impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy to date and just how large is the economic hole in which we find ourselves.
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E The Bank Of Canada’s Uncertainty Principle
The Bank of Canada issued its policy statement today and to no one’s surprise left its bank rate unchanged at 0.25%.
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E Canadian Federal Government Looks To The Long-Term Bond Market To Finance Deficits
Like all governments everywhere, the Canadian Federal government will finance COVID- induced deficits for many years to come.
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E Do Not Look To Wage Gains To Contribute To Inflation
All eyes are on the opening of the US economy and the potential for inflation.
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E Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
The key to understanding interest rates is to consider the rates banks charge each other for very short-term lending.
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Comments

Latest Comments
The Bank Of Canada’s Uncertainty Principle
13 days ago

I think we're all flying at night with instrument panels.

The Fed And Bond Market Similar Inflation Views
14 days ago

Arthur

Do we know what amount of inflation above 2% will the Fed tolerate and for how long? Kinda of vague on their part.

Canadian Federal Government Looks To The Long-Term Bond Market To Finance Deficits
17 days ago

A gamble for whom? The issuer has to payments obligations of 2 % interest paymemts for 30 years...no gamble there. The bond purchaser say a insurer sells an insurance policy that is based on the guarantee 2% annual payment...no gamble for the insurance company.The recent increase in long rates is welcomed by institutional funds who now use their cash flow to improve their returns

The gamble you are talking about is borrowings at short rates and that is what the govts want to get away from by buying more duration

Inflation Or Disinflation?
19 days ago

What replaces the 60/40 split?

Do Not Look To Wage Gains To Contribute To Inflation
22 days ago

The issue is even deeper. Labour's share of national income has been on steep decline for about two decades. Labour costs are held in check by cheap imports and declining domestic production in conjunction. This is ongoing --- just look what happened to Amazon workers in the recent vote to unionize.

The loss of jobs during the height of the pandemic were mostly in lower wage industries ( food +beverage) tourism, So many of these workers have no skills that are needed in the labour short industries.

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
1 month ago

The Fed thinks it can let the air out of the bubble very slowly. It believes it can just change its QE program to let the air out. It remains to be seen that that is true

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
1 month ago

Europe continues to be very tight fisted when it comes to government spending. There appears to be no change in that direction at all.

Inflation Fears Relating To $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Are Exaggerated
1 month ago

Arthur an excellent analysis of why inflation will be more like a spike in prices rather than a sustained increase in the price level. Yet I've never seen such a groundswell of opinion that is all one-sided. There's no historical record to sustained that view or that compares to what's happened during the pandemic. So it is a mystery to me how they come about with such strong growth forecast and inflationary fears. I think the FED has a better grasp of what likely happen than the Wall Street consensus. However that narrative will not die so soon and we can expect it to go on until proven wrong.

Inflation Is Broken
1 month ago

Housing costs are more related to the price of land. Land does not appreciate and is different from housing on the land which does depreciate. This complicates the measurement of housing costs per se.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
2 months ago

Very few talk about the collapse of velocity. Yet it is so pronounced as to completely offset anything on the monetary base.

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (32 years 2 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)