Norman Mogil - Comments
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

Latest Comments
The Bank Of Canada’s Uncertainty Principle
15 days ago

I think we're all flying at night with instrument panels.

The Fed And Bond Market Similar Inflation Views
16 days ago

Arthur

Do we know what amount of inflation above 2% will the Fed tolerate and for how long? Kinda of vague on their part.

Canadian Federal Government Looks To The Long-Term Bond Market To Finance Deficits
18 days ago

A gamble for whom? The issuer has to payments obligations of 2 % interest paymemts for 30 years...no gamble there. The bond purchaser say a insurer sells an insurance policy that is based on the guarantee 2% annual payment...no gamble for the insurance company.The recent increase in long rates is welcomed by institutional funds who now use their cash flow to improve their returns

The gamble you are talking about is borrowings at short rates and that is what the govts want to get away from by buying more duration

Inflation Or Disinflation?
21 days ago

What replaces the 60/40 split?

Do Not Look To Wage Gains To Contribute To Inflation
24 days ago

The issue is even deeper. Labour's share of national income has been on steep decline for about two decades. Labour costs are held in check by cheap imports and declining domestic production in conjunction. This is ongoing --- just look what happened to Amazon workers in the recent vote to unionize.

The loss of jobs during the height of the pandemic were mostly in lower wage industries ( food +beverage) tourism, So many of these workers have no skills that are needed in the labour short industries.

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
1 month ago

The Fed thinks it can let the air out of the bubble very slowly. It believes it can just change its QE program to let the air out. It remains to be seen that that is true

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
1 month ago

Europe continues to be very tight fisted when it comes to government spending. There appears to be no change in that direction at all.

Inflation Fears Relating To $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Are Exaggerated
1 month ago

Arthur an excellent analysis of why inflation will be more like a spike in prices rather than a sustained increase in the price level. Yet I've never seen such a groundswell of opinion that is all one-sided. There's no historical record to sustained that view or that compares to what's happened during the pandemic. So it is a mystery to me how they come about with such strong growth forecast and inflationary fears. I think the FED has a better grasp of what likely happen than the Wall Street consensus. However that narrative will not die so soon and we can expect it to go on until proven wrong.

Inflation Is Broken
1 month ago

Housing costs are more related to the price of land. Land does not appreciate and is different from housing on the land which does depreciate. This complicates the measurement of housing costs per se.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
2 months ago

Very few talk about the collapse of velocity. Yet it is so pronounced as to completely offset anything on the monetary base.

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