Norman Mogil Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more


Latest Posts
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E Do Not Look To Wage Gains To Contribute To Inflation
All eyes are on the opening of the US economy and the potential for inflation.
E Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
The key to understanding interest rates is to consider the rates banks charge each other for very short-term lending.
E The Bond Market Is Not Expecting Inflation To Take Off
Bond yields are on a steady, upward path. From today’s perspective, inflation will remain relatively tame.
E The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
Looking at the degree of deleveraging that is a major by-product of the pandemic, it is far from certain that a recovery will be in full swing later this year.
E When It Comes To The Canadian Dollar The Bank Of Canada Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
The rise in the Canadian dollar affects both the trade and the capital accounts (the net flows of foreign investment).
E How Effective Are Government Stimulus Programs?
As Congress considers Biden’s stimulus package, economists are debating the merits of a $1.9 trillion relief package.
E No Way To Sugar-Coat The Economic Cost Of Canada’s Unemployment Numbers
Canada lost 213,000 jobs and the unemployment rate jumped to 9.6% in January.
E The World Bank Identifies The Lingering Effects Of The Pandemic
With so much focus on the near-term recovery efforts, economists are starting to examine what the pandemic will do to our long-term economic prospects.
E The Bank Of Canada Clings To Hope In Its Recent Rate Decision
The pandemic and public health policy continue to condition the economic outlook, not monetary or even fiscal policy.
E Bonds And The Re-Inflation Trade Re-Examined
A flood of new debt issuances will be needed to cover increases in deficit financing.
E The Pandemic Is Taking A Heavy Toll On Canadian Workers
The Canadian labor survey results for December are very disheartening. Many of the most important aspects of the Canadian labor market have been hit and hit hard.
E Wishful Thinking About A Rapid Recovery
Investors are pinning their hopes on an economic recovery, some even expect a surge in consumption that will lead the way to a V-shaped recovery. What lies behind this optimism?
E The Two-Track Consumer Credit Market
The basis of an economic recovery lies with the consumer, yet consumer behavior continues to show inconsistency.
E Do Debt-To-GDP Ratios Really Matter?
As government deficits soar, commentators increasingly focus on the debt-to-GDP ratio to measure a country’s fiscal health.
E The Poison Chalice Of Low Interest Rates
Mortgage rates in Canada have been on a steady downward trend since the early 1980s when rates exceeded 20%.
E The Real Cost Of The Pandemic Is Permanent Job Loss
Workers who are laid off for extended periods of time just lose their attachment to the workforce.
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