Norman Mogil Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

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E Has Monetary Policy Come To The End Of The Road?
Now that the Jackson Hole confab has ended, our attention turns to one basic question: With interest rates this low, do central banks have any power to change the course of growth and inflation?
E The Bank Of Canada Will Have To Face The Music As Summer Comes To A Close
Developments in the collapse in bond yields have caught the attention of policymakers worldwide. Calls for additional rate relief have come from varying quarters in the US.
E Negative Interest Rates Enters Mainstream Economics
When Alan Greenspan uttered “there is no barrier for U.S. Treasury yields going below zero”, you know that conventional economists have embraced negative interest rates as real possibility in North America.
E A Perfect Storm In The Making
The financial markets are now starting to adjust to the new reality of a prolonged and ruinous trade war in which neither side is about to make concessions.
E The Federal Reserve Kicks Off The Rate-Cutting Derby
The Federal Reserve kicks off the rate-cutting derby with its decision today to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bps. With the world’s most important central bank taking the lead, we can expect other central banks to follow.
E US Trade Policies Set The Conditions For A Worldwide Slump
Trade volumes in the advanced economies and the emerging markets will be cut in half compared to the performance in 2017 and by one-third from the rate achieved in 2018.
E Why The Bank Of Canada Resists Signalling Rate Cuts
While the Bank of Canada’s decision earlier this month to hold its policy rate steady came as no surprise, the decision did raise the issue of why the Bank dismissed, out of hand, any real prospect of a rate cut.
E Bank Of Canada Dismisses The Bond Market's Message
For the time being, the Bank of Canada is burying its head in the sand. The bond market is not having any part of this avoidance.
E Deflationary Fears Wash Over World Bond Markets
Bond investors have taken heed from more than a decade’s experience in Japan and Germany of extremely low rates.
E Falling Interest Rates Are Not A Good Thing
Let's look at what is driving rates lower and then ask ourselves: are these developments “good “ things.
E The Beginnings Of A US Recession
Recession seems to be on the minds of analysts as the yield curve inverts and yields fall to levels last seen in 2016. So, just what do economists mean when they say the economy is in recession? What are the markers that characterize this condition?
E Central Bankers Caught Are In A State Of Paralysis
As equity markets slide and bond yields drop, central bankers find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place, not really knowing which is the best way forward.
E Is The Federal Reserve Laying The Ground Work For A Rate Cut
I generally do not hang on every word spoken by Fed speakers, but every so often a speaker does seem to hint strongly on what lies behind a current policy debate.
E Understanding The Household Debt In Canada
Hardly a month goes by without some reference to Canadian indebtedness and why it represents a danger to the consumer and the economy as a whole.
E Canadian Banks Are Stumbling In A Weakened Economy
It is often thought that as the Canadian banks fare, so does the Canadian economy. This reference is very apt given the banking results for the first half of the year.
E Trump’s Trade War Sets Up A World Of Deflation
Trade wars always lead to deflationary conditions, and this current American trade war with China will prove no different from those in the past.
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