Norman Mogil Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more


Latest Posts
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E The Bank Of Canada Introduces Ambiguity Into Rate Policy
The Bank of Canada moved off a measure of certainty regarding rate hikes to a measure of considerable doubt, according to the most recent speech by Governor Poloz.
E Canadian Lagging Exports And The Future Of The Canadian Dollar
Canada has long been a nation that depends heavily on its export markets, deriving roughly 25% of total income from external trade. Thus, one of the best measures of the health of the Canadian economy is its performance in international trade.
E European Central Bankers Paint A Rather Gloomy Picture
While the Fed Chairman Powell touts the US economy is in a “good place”, Europe sees the world in much less robust terms.
E Canadian Banks Back Away From Mortgage Lending
The banks are shying away from writing new mortgage business in part due to the introduction of tougher lending rules and their own internal risk management policies.
E Are Central Banks About To Shift Gears Towards Easing?
The close of bond trading at the end of last week holds some clues as what we may expect from the Fed and from the Bank of Canada in the next six months or more.
E Why The Fed Is Hesitating On Continuing With Quantitative Tightening
While Fed watchers focussed on yesterday’s announcement of a pause in the rate cycle increases, the more important statement by Chairman Powell concerns the process of “quantitative tightening”.
E The Canadian Consumer Has Hit A Wall
Yesterday’s release of Canadian retail sales continues a recent string of weak economic reports starting as far back as the middle of 2018.
E Why Canadian Mortgage Rates Are About To Fall
The combination of falling bond yields and weakening mortgage demand have teamed up to put considerable pressure on all aspects of the Canadian mortgage market.
E Shrinking Global Liquidity Raises A Red Flag In The Equity Markets
What are some of the signs that the decline in liquidity is having an adverse impact on the U.S and world economies?
E BoC Stubbornly Clings To The View That Rates Have To Rise
Although the Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 1 ¾ %, citing a variety of factors holding back growth and inflation, it continues to champion the need for higher interest rates over time.
E The Canadian Credit Markets Put A Large Damper On The Housing Market
The life and death of any housing market depends on the support of the credit markets.
E What Should Influence Canadian Investors In 2019
As the new year rolls in, Canadian investors are going to be inundated with numerical forecasts for GDP, interest rates, stock exchange indices and host of individual industries.
E This Was The Year Bond Yields Were Suppose To Take Off
Forecasting is generally a mugs' game, no more so than in forecasting interest rates.
E ECB Draghi's 'Whatever It Takes' Is Not Enough
It has been five years since ECB President Draghi defiantly stated that the “ECB is ready to do whatever it takes” to combat the then looming debt crisis in the eurozone. The crisis has long past, but the eurozone remains mired in slow growth.
E Corporate Bond Spreads Widen Signalling Greater Risks Ahead
While all eyes are on the volatility in the stock market, the bigger story might well turn out to be the potential blow out in the corporate bond and leveraged loan markets.
E The Bank Of Canada Pauses In The Face Of Very Changed Circumstances
It is not easy being a central banker when events well-beyond your control interfere with your path to higher interest rates.
1 to 16 of 231 Posts
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