Norman Mogil Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more


Latest Posts
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E The Year The Bond Market And The Bank Of Canada Parted Ways
The Canadian bond market has fully inverted such that all bonds from 3- months to 30 years are less than the bank rate. Given that inflation is running around 2 %, Canadian bonds are negative in real terms.
E Entering The Era Of Negative Real Rates Of Interest
Regardless of what the equity markets are saying about the near-term outlook, the bond market is giving off an unmistakable signal that growth is going to be so slow, that inflationary expectations have essentially collapsed.
E When A Decline In The US-China Trade Deficit Is Not Necessarily A Good Thing
The U.S. trade deficit in manufactured goods with all countries was relatively unchanged in 2019 at close to $1.048 trillion.
E Canadian Long-Term Interest Rates Tell The Real Story For 2020
Beginning in January 2019, the nominal returns on Canadian bonds over 20 years was 2.7% and today the rate sits at 1.45%.
E For The Bank Of Canada Hope Is The Only Strategy
This morning the Bank of Canada announced its policy rate decision. As expected, it kept the overnight bank at 1.75%, yet it gave every indication that the facts have indeed changed.
E Canadian Household Leverage Has Been On The Decline For A Decade
A constant theme running through the financial press is that Canadians are deep in debt, that we are heading for a major debt crisis and that the government should do something about curtailing the growth of household indebtedness.
E The Canadian Job Market Growth Is All In The Low Productivity Sectors
To a national statistician, all jobs are the same when it comes to recording employment growth over time. Yet employment markets are very dynamic and this has a have a profound effect on productivity and national output.
E The Bond Market And Inflationary Expectations: The Year In Review
Long- term bonds turned in one of the best years in recent memory, an observation that is often drowned out by the cheers in the equity markets.
E The New Monetary Policy Worry Is Financial Stability
Having succeeded in maintaining low-interest rates without generating inflation, central banks are far from done worrying.
E Canadian Banks Seem To Be At A Point Of Inflexion
Canadian banks have always displayed great strength even during the world financial crisis of 2008, yet this past year the banking community is facing a new set of challenges as it adapts to rapid changes in the marketplace.
E The Mirage Of Canadian Economic Performance
Much of Canada's growth potential is derived from population growth and not from productivity gains. It is the latter measure that is the best gauge of economic performance. Let us take a closer look...
E The Bloom Is Off The Rose With Canadian Banks
Canadian banks are not looking forward to fiscal 2020 as they set aside higher loan loss provisions, cut jobs and other expenses and maintain lending in a very slow growth environment.
E Dark Clouds On The Corporate Bond Horizon
The surge in corporate debt in 2019 has now become a major concern regarding financial stability, according to a recent report by the IMF.
E The Bank Of Canada On One Side And The Economy On The Other Side
The Canadian bank stocks have enjoyed a big rally this quarter, largely on the shoulders of the Bank of Canada (BoC)’s steadfastness in keeping its policy rate unchanged.
E The Canadian Stock Market Takes Leave Of The Economy
It seems that the Canadian investors pile into the stock market at considerable risk.
E Where Is The Stock Market Getting Its Marching Orders?
An overview of recent economic data in the US reveals an economy sliding, whether into recession or not, but nonetheless, not providing any substance as to why the equity markets continue to march forward.
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