I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...
more I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades I advised an independent brokerage firm on capital markets, and yield curve analysis and portfolio management. Prior to that, I worked as senior consultant, with Peat Marwick and Partners (PMP) and A.R.A Consultants, responsible for projects in infrastructure, industrial strategy and public finance. From 1972 to 1980, I was Director of Research at C.D. Howe Institute, overseeing research in Canada-US trade, currency developments, and Canadian monetary policies.
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Latest Comments
We’re Not In Kansas Anymore
How does a market crash lead to inflation?
Liquidity Is Trapped In The Banks
The essence of this problem of excess liquidity or the liquidity trap is slow economic growth. And that is why monetary stimulus is not able to do anything when real rates of interest are negative as they are today. The only solution to stimulate growth is expansionary fiscal policy which we now have an abundance because of the pandemic.
Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
Very valid point about correlation
Even if We get out of the third wave the output gap will be huge,I do not understand why anyone thinks the BoC will raise its rate next year.
Canadian Banks Are Not In A Lending Mood
I agree that the Fed should keep its mouth shut. Transparency gives the market a chance to game the the Fed's next move. It used to be that way before the 1990s
But then Greenspan started the whole idea of transparency and it's continues to this day.
The Bank Of Canada’s Uncertainty Principle
I think we're all flying at night with instrument panels.
The Fed And Bond Market Similar Inflation Views
Arthur
Do we know what amount of inflation above 2% will the Fed tolerate and for how long? Kinda of vague on their part.
Canadian Federal Government Looks To The Long-Term Bond Market To Finance Deficits
A gamble for whom? The issuer has to payments obligations of 2 % interest paymemts for 30 years...no gamble there. The bond purchaser say a insurer sells an insurance policy that is based on the guarantee 2% annual payment...no gamble for the insurance company.The recent increase in long rates is welcomed by institutional funds who now use their cash flow to improve their returns
The gamble you are talking about is borrowings at short rates and that is what the govts want to get away from by buying more duration
Inflation Or Disinflation?
What replaces the 60/40 split?
Do Not Look To Wage Gains To Contribute To Inflation
The issue is even deeper. Labour's share of national income has been on steep decline for about two decades. Labour costs are held in check by cheap imports and declining domestic production in conjunction. This is ongoing --- just look what happened to Amazon workers in the recent vote to unionize.
The loss of jobs during the height of the pandemic were mostly in lower wage industries ( food +beverage) tourism, So many of these workers have no skills that are needed in the labour short industries.
Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
The Fed thinks it can let the air out of the bubble very slowly. It believes it can just change its QE program to let the air out. It remains to be seen that that is true