Norman Mogil - Comments
Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more
Latest Comments
The Bank Of Canada Is Aggressively Expanding Its Quantitative Easing
5 years ago

In both countries though the economic collapse is so deep and wide that government spending has to be at these levels if not higher. Without that the economic hardship would be politically unacceptable.

Inflation Virus Strikes Fed
5 years ago

One unintended consequence of raising rates in response to higher rent costs is the reduction in housing supply which in turn adds to higher rents,

IThe Fed rate is too blunt an instrument to tackke sectoral shifts in costs that supply driven

Rationalization: Low Rates Justify High Valuations
5 years ago

Low interest rates have not led to weak growth. Instead it is the reverse. Low interest rates are a sign of weakness and present and future earnings. Milton Friedman show this to be true decades ago when he visited Japan and stated that the low interest rates were a reflection of a weak economy. When nterest rates hit zero and the discount rate then is zero. This leads to an absurd discounted cash flow model using is there a discount rate.

Canadian Banks Are Far From Being Out Of The Woods
5 years ago

Canadian banks will survive because the reserve ratios are quite adequate. The question they have to deal with is whether to cut their dividends. So far they've been able to maintain them and that has satisfied shareholders

Canada’s Largest Mortgage Insurer Misplays Its Hand And Now Sounds The Alarm
5 years ago

Are you speaking of the US or Canadian experience.? In Canada, the entire mortgage industry is different from the US in many ways. Suffice to say, the CMHC is a Crown corporation and has the full backing of the Federal govt. The Canadian banks underwrite about 75% of all mortgages and the banks are under very tight restrictions by the govt and the Bank of Canada. There is a very small, nascent, MBA market that is no near the relative size of the US. We never had a housing or mortgage meltdown like the one in the US in 2008---not even a hiccup.

Why Stagflation Is Not In Our Future
5 years ago

With interest rates at 0% and possibly going negative there is no real burden to carry the interest cost indefinitely.

The FED will continue to buy the debt and will not present it to the treasury department for payment but will just accept a reissuing of the debt by the treasury department and continue that indefinitely. So there really isn't a day of reckoning. Governments don't die and that's why comparison between an individual and government is not valid in this case

Why Stagflation Is Not In Our Future
5 years ago

It is not a matter of the constant inflation rate that is a concern. The rate is slowing down...or disinflation. This is what scares the Fed because it moves further away from their target. Disinflation is very insidious and affects everybody's decisions regarding consumption or production

Canada Has The Fiscal Capacity To Finance The COVID Created Deficit
5 years ago

Maybe the answer is that we have a left of centre govt. The US should consider that option in November.

Canada Has The Fiscal Capacity To Finance The COVID Created Deficit
5 years ago

I agree. We have closed the border and try to keep ourselves safe. And the population at large is cooperating with the government regarding openings

The Federal Reserve Massive Buying Of Government Debt
5 years ago

A very good overview of the issue of monetizing debt. As you well explained it it is not a cardinal sin but sensible monetary policy at a time of enormous financial stress.

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