COVID-19 Impact On The Canadian Labor Market
Today’s release of job numbers reveals the impact of the pandemic on Canadian workers to date. On a positive note, the labor force --- total of the employed and unemployed---- grew by 491,000 or 2.6%, indicating that job growth improved. This attracted individuals to re-enter the work force and seek out employment. While Canada had an increase in employment of 290,000 in May, it also had a simultaneous increase in unemployment of 201,000. Overall, the improvement in the labor force is a welcome sight, however it comes with a rise in the unemployed as jobs remain scarce and employers are reluctant to add to their payrolls while the economy remains restrained by the pandemic restrictions affecting the workplace. Hence, Canadian unemployment rates reached a record high in May of 13%.
Canadian Unemployment Rate
Overall, of greatest importance is the measure ‘labor underutilization rate’. That measure, according to Statistics Canada:
Combines those who were employed; those who were not in the labour force but who wanted a job and did not look for one; and those were employed but worked less than usual hours…..In May, more than one-third ( 34.8%) of the potential labourforce was fully or partially underutilized, down slightly from 36.6% in April, but considerably higher than the 11.9% observed in February.
Within the various age groups, the underutilization rate for youth aged 15-24 is excessively high at 51%; ages 25-54, at 31% ; and 55 and older at 35%.Put differently, every age category is way underutilized, sign of how far the Canadian economy has fallen from its potential and how much faster it has to grow to regain potential growth rates.
Your balanced view of unemployment is contrasted by the unbalanced behaviour of markets.
I've been baffled at how the US is in utter chaos and yet the stock market is hitting new highs. What can possibly explain it?
The stock market is not the economy. It can behave irrationally on the belief that everything will get back to the pre covid days. Many of us think that the world has changed permanently and that growth will be slow and painful as we adjust to new environment. The real impact of the virus will hit in the fall when economy will continue to be weak and reality will set in.
But there is a global pandemic still waging, millions are unemployed, and now riots are raging across the US, and some places like Minneapolis City are voting to disband the police, calling for an end to law and order. It's pandemonium! Should this unprecedented time lead to much uncertainty and volatility? I would think people would flock to safe havens like gold.
Indeed Norm. The permanent loss from whatever shape (or letter) this recovery ends up being will certainly be felt for years. The market is usually slow to catch up.
Agreed.
Norm, with that theory in mind, how would you recommend an individual investor on their portfolio over the 6 months- 1 year?