Not so sure about Trump power. One of the largest BMW factories in the world is in Spartsburg in he Carolinias has over 10k workers. One of the reasons that US cannot follow through with tariff threats especially in Trump country.

As they say "it's complicated"

Thanks. I just don't get Poloz. He staring at recession and just closes his eyes. Given the monetary lags we will not feel the effects of any cut in rates until mid 2021.

Gary an excellent overview of the biggest non tariff barrier to trade that is used by every country

You are right China is not going to give up the commanding heights derived from subsidies

And US farmers cannot exist without farm aid. Both conditions are indemnic in their respective nations.

Huh? You say Treasuries " might not be liquid, if liquidity is part of your goal". Treasuries are most liquid asset on earth. The investor may not like the yield he gets upon a sudden liquidation, but that is no different than in the case of equities.

Arthur

Business investment and govt spending are slowing and together that accounts for 35% of GDP. Those segments are dragging down GDP and more importantly are reducing long term potential as the capital stock wears down and overall productivity falls---which is the most serious issue.

One way to stop this lying is to tax the corporations on the inflated numbers.!

This puts the Chinese growth issue in perspective. Much of the negativity surrounding China's fortunes involves a wish, on the part of many Americans, to prove that the China is suffering from the trade wars. As you rightly point out, US growth has been the major victim in the trade conflict, not China.

Also China is in the midst of altering the ratio of domestic consumption to investment, so some slowdown is expected. The betting odds favour China engineering a soft landing to a lower growth path, but hardly one to characterize as a major reversal of fortunes.

The US landing may be not be as smooth, especially with such erratic policy making that results in knee-jerk reactions that interfere with longer term investment decisions.

I meant the ECB

The job numbers are worthless in setting policy.They are equivalent to a gain of 800k in a month in the US.. a number never achieved post 2008 if not furthet back in yome. Also half the jobs are partime and they are low paid and offer very benefits.

The Canadian banks are increasing their loan loss provisions because they do foresee tough times ahead. Credit available is tightening.

The Bank of Canada has painted themselves into a corner and will be forced to follow the Fed and ECO in easing by year end.

The Fed rate cut will not be much of any sugar high. If the Fed is forced to approach zero bound rates, the European and Japanese experience proves that it is really game over for monetary stimulus. And the US has no appetite for fiscal stimulus, not a sanguine prospect.