Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Global Recovery
With the pandemic still raging, the uneven global economic outlook has become even murkier, significantly weakened by low-income countries' limited access to vaccines.
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E Canada’s Pandemic Recession Is Far From Over
Canada’s economic recovery was a bit stronger than the American, though in real terms, Canada’s recovery lagged the American.
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E 10-Year Yields And Implications
Interest rates have been unusually stable since 2009. Some important global interest rate trends have emerged during the pandemic. Inflation expectations still remain a key determinant of bond yields.
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E Canadian Savings Post Pandemic
Despite the steep economic downturn last year, family incomes in Canada have been strongly supported during the Covid crisis. 
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E Is Canada’s Booming Housing Market Primed For A Financial Crash
As of the second quarter of 2021, the Canadian housing market is still booming in terms of new construction, high prices, and escalating sales.
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E US GDP Projection Q2, 2021
We should expect a massive increase in US GDP in the second quarter of 2021.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Canadian Net Worth Increases Despite COVID-19
3 months ago

Hard to believe, but you are right

Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
3 months ago

Nice column Norm.

Indeed, the adjustment to the new employment reality will be very rocky.

Another interesting factoid, Changes in Canada's monthly employment numbers have been almost perfectly correlated with the different phases of the Corona virus and the ebb and flow of the related restrictions. We are currently at the tail end of the third Covid wave, and this is why Canada lost so many jobs in April and May,

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
6 months ago

Great article Norman.

You are of course right that it is a liquidity trap, except based on negative central bank rates.

Shows how difficult it is for the ECB to stimulate the economy with its monetary policy. As Keynes argued many years ago (i.e. the 1930s), you need to use an aggressive fiscal policy in a liquidity trap. The Biden Administration seems to understand this better than the Europeans.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
7 months ago

interesting point about the collapse in the velocity of M

When It Comes To The Canadian Dollar The Bank Of Canada Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
7 months ago

nice article Norm

The C$ certainly is too strong for the Canadian economy at this time.

But as you point out, its strength is really the mirror image of the US dollar weakness.

The Fed also does not target its currency.

The Rocky Path Towards A US Economic Recovery
10 months ago

Hi William

Bravo. I couldn't agree more.

As a Canadian who has studied and worked in the US, I have always admired your country, particularly its dynamic economy and the interesting and a bit bewildering political system. However, with all of its warts, I always took US democracy for granted.

Now, like many others, my admiration has sharply diminished. Particularly, I am also appalled by the selfishness of the 1%.

Business And Households Amass Cash To Withstand The Pandemic
10 months ago

Excellent piece Norman. A lot of household spending power, if confidence is resumed.

My guess is that even when the real economy has a bit of momentum, consumer confidence will continue to be dicey since there are so many difficult challenges in the environment to digest -- job security, investment and pensions, etc.

It Is An Open Secret That Central Banks Are Moving Towards Digital Currencies
11 months ago

nice article Norm. I agree that the shift to digital transactions shouldn't hurt the Cdn banks.

The Pandemic Recession And Central Banks
11 months ago

thanks for your comment.

There is virtually no inflation risk on the horizon. Indeed, the risk is entirely one of low inflation, or in a worst case, deflation;

An Unconventional US Recession, An Unconventional Recovery And The New Economic Normal?
1 year ago

Thanks for your comments.

The US has always had a problem dealing with its poor.

The problem became more exaggerated by recent events, including the covid recession.

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