Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E Canadian Foreign Trade Is Reviving And Canada Posted A Trade Surplus Early This Year
Canada’s economy was significantly bolstered by international trade at the start of 2021. 
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E BoC QE Stimulus
The Bank of Canada’s QE stimulus is comparatively larger than the US Fed’s program. The big uncertainty for both central banks is when will they start to taper back on bond purchases.
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E The Canadian Economy In Q4 2020
The Canadian economy is bouncing back, but uncertainty remains concerning the true strength of the recovery. Will Canada’s supply-side pandemic recession shift into a demand-side slowdown?
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E The OECD’s Latest Global Projections Are More Optimistic -- Perhaps Too Optimistic
Global GDP growth is projected to be 5½ per cent in 2021 and 4% in 2022, with global output rising above the pre-pandemic level by mid-2021.
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E Specter Of Long Term US Unemployment
The recovery of US jobs picked up steam in February, and vaccinations are soaring, but the specter of long-term unemployment prevails.
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E Will Americans Use Their Stimulus Checks To Pay Down Debt?
It will not be easy to restore the US economy to where it left off over a year ago.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
14 days ago

Great article Norman.

You are of course right that it is a liquidity trap, except based on negative central bank rates.

Shows how difficult it is for the ECB to stimulate the economy with its monetary policy. As Keynes argued many years ago (i.e. the 1930s), you need to use an aggressive fiscal policy in a liquidity trap. The Biden Administration seems to understand this better than the Europeans.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
1 month ago

interesting point about the collapse in the velocity of M

When It Comes To The Canadian Dollar The Bank Of Canada Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
1 month ago

nice article Norm

The C$ certainly is too strong for the Canadian economy at this time.

But as you point out, its strength is really the mirror image of the US dollar weakness.

The Fed also does not target its currency.

The Rocky Path Towards A US Economic Recovery
4 months ago

Hi William

Bravo. I couldn't agree more.

As a Canadian who has studied and worked in the US, I have always admired your country, particularly its dynamic economy and the interesting and a bit bewildering political system. However, with all of its warts, I always took US democracy for granted.

Now, like many others, my admiration has sharply diminished. Particularly, I am also appalled by the selfishness of the 1%.

Business And Households Amass Cash To Withstand The Pandemic
4 months ago

Excellent piece Norman. A lot of household spending power, if confidence is resumed.

My guess is that even when the real economy has a bit of momentum, consumer confidence will continue to be dicey since there are so many difficult challenges in the environment to digest -- job security, investment and pensions, etc.

It Is An Open Secret That Central Banks Are Moving Towards Digital Currencies
5 months ago

nice article Norm. I agree that the shift to digital transactions shouldn't hurt the Cdn banks.

The Pandemic Recession And Central Banks
6 months ago

thanks for your comment.

There is virtually no inflation risk on the horizon. Indeed, the risk is entirely one of low inflation, or in a worst case, deflation;

An Unconventional US Recession, An Unconventional Recovery And The New Economic Normal?
7 months ago

Thanks for your comments.

The US has always had a problem dealing with its poor.

The problem became more exaggerated by recent events, including the covid recession.

IMF's Gloomy Global Economic Projections
9 months ago

I agree the outlook is very risky.

thanks for your comment

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