Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E US Corporate Profits Soared Last Year, In Nominal Terms And As A Percentage Of GDP
Corporate profits in the United States rose sharply in 2018, reaching an all-time high of $2,076.8 billion in the third quarter.
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E An Extremely Strong US Job Market In The Middle Of The Trump Mandate
The US job market heated up right through all of 2018 and into January of this year. Virtually all indicators suggest that the demand for labor in 2019 will again run ahead of the supply of new workers looking for employment.
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E The Tax Cut Sharply Reduced Government Revenues, Even Though Supporters Claimed No Revenue Shortfall
As predicted by many economists, overall tax revenues and corporate tax revenues have declined sharply. On its own, this is very unusual for an economy at full capacity and with record low unemployment.
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E According To The CBO, The US Govt. Is On A Long-Term Trajectory Of Red Ink
Under the baseline scenario, the CBO projects the budget deficit will increase from 3.8% in 2018 to a high of 4.7% of GDP by 2022. Another version shows a high of nearly 7% of GDP. And that's without recession.
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E Major Governments Have Lost Fiscal Flexibility Because Of High Levels Of Indebtedness
In virtually all cases, government indebtedness is currently considerably higher than it was in the period preceding the great financial meltdown.
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E External Trade Matters Less To China’s Economy Than In The Past
China posted a total trade surplus of USD $351.76 billion in 2018, its lowest since 2013, as exports increased 9.9% (its strongest performance in seven years), while imports were up 15.8%.
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Latest Comments
Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?
17 days ago

Gary

Every time I think that the markets should have fully discounted an issue-e.g. tariffs, rate changes--somehow the market still reacts.

Who really knows.

China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War
2 months ago

Yep

Your comment is right on.

China is trying to diversify its own imports. Imports from Asian countries grew faster than imports from the US.

Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences
3 months ago

I found your article to be very insightful. As an aside, I have also long thought that the division between what is manufacturing and what can be classified as services to be very blurry. All the best.

Canada Had A Jobs Rebound In June, But Short-Term Outlook Less Encouraging
6 months ago

thanks for your comment. where are you located?

U.S. Housing Starts Have Rebounded, But Tariffs Are A Deterrent To New Construction
6 months ago

Your comment is interesting. A sudden halt of Chinese investments in real estate around the world would have a negative impact in the US, even a bigger negative for Canada. But, don't under estimate the importance of tarif induced costs on housing construction.

The Euro Area’s Economy Has Been Re-Energized
9 months ago

The political and economic risks are real.

Brexit and the impact on euro mkt, Trump and his antics, worries about foreign trade barriers, the swing to the right in some countries, and concerns over when the ECB starts to withdraw monetary support. My own sense is that the euro will hold together.

The Euro Area’s Economy Has Been Re-Energized
9 months ago

YIkes. This is a hard question to answer.

From my experience, strong economic growth is rarely a good predictor for the market. To use an economist cop out, strong growth is likely a necessary condition, but not on its own a sufficient condition for strong equity markets.

Canada’s Employment Surge Continued Into March
9 months ago

Sorry for tardy response. A weak Cdn currency, currently close to 75 cents US, the very strong US economy, and the revival of commodity prices, particularly oil.

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Arthur Donner Commented on Canadian Banks Back Away From Mortgage Lending:

great column Norm

Arthur Donner Commented on Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?:

Gary

Every time I think that the markets should have fully discounted an issue-e.g. tariffs, rate changes--somehow the market still reacts.

Who really knows.

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