Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E The US Economy Slowed To Its Trend Rate Of Growth This Year
According to the preliminary and the advance estimate, the US economy slowed to a 1.9% annual rate of growth in the third quarter, similar to the 2% pace recorded in the previous quarter.
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E US Reduced Housing Affordability
Under normal circumstances, the usual transmission mechanism for interest rate reductions in the US operates through boosting the housing sector.
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E China's Exports And Imports Weaken
China’s exports have weakened despite a declining yuan, and its shrinking imports are hurting the global economy.
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E US Budget Deficit Reaches A Trillion
The US budget deficit almost reached a trillion this year, and markets are still unconcerned.
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E Business Investment And Western Alienation
Business construction spending in Canada has been improving, though Alberta continues to be left out. This helps explain the serious western alienation in Canada.
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E Canadian Hiring Intentions Weakening
Even though Canadian business sentiment is improving and unemployment is at a 50 year low, hiring intentions are weakening.
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Comments

Latest Comments
US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation
6 months ago

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
7 months ago

Gary,

it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is sounding a bit long in the tooth.

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
7 months ago

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

The Bank Of Canada Introduces Ambiguity Into Rate Policy
9 months ago

A thoughtful and clear explanation of why the BoC is on hold

Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?
9 months ago

Gary

Every time I think that the markets should have fully discounted an issue-e.g. tariffs, rate changes--somehow the market still reacts.

Who really knows.

China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War
11 months ago

Yep

Your comment is right on.

China is trying to diversify its own imports. Imports from Asian countries grew faster than imports from the US.

Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences
1 year ago

I found your article to be very insightful. As an aside, I have also long thought that the division between what is manufacturing and what can be classified as services to be very blurry. All the best.

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