Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E Canadian Economy Cooled In 2019, Even Though Labor Market Stayed Strong
The Canadian economy slowed last year to an estimated 1.6% pace, though the job market performed very strongly. Canada’s economy expanded at an unusually fast 3.5% annual rate in the second quarter, though the growth slowed to only 1.3% in Q3.
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E Negative Rates And Central Banks
With forecasts of a slower global economy, central banks around the world are once again contemplating that they might need a much easier monetary policy.
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E The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To
The central banks in the advanced countries are all facing a similar quandary. Policy interest rates have been declining over the past 20 years, and in some cases, are barely above zero.
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E Canada’s Economy Created 35,000 Jobs In December But Monthly Jobs Estimates Are Erratic
The December employment recovery led to a reduction in the unemployment rate to 5.6% from 5.9% in the previous month.
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E Canadian Housing Starts Contracted In 2019, Though Construction In The Large Cities Is Booming
Canadian housing starts surprised pundits by dropping below the 200,000 annual unit level in December.
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E Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
Germany has had a terrible manufacturing performance in all of 2019.
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Latest Comments
The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To
16 days ago

thanks Gary

Good charts or tables should easily tell a story.

That's why I like using charts.

Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
21 days ago

HI Gary,

Thanks for your comment.

No doubt Trump can make Germany's problems worse.

But 2020 is an election year. My political guess is that he would want to avoid another trade dispute at this time. (After all, the China phase 1 was hardly a win for the US)

For The Bank Of Canada Hope Is The Only Strategy
26 days ago

great article Norm

Like the Keynes quote

The US Economy Slowed To Its Trend Rate Of Growth This Year
3 months ago

I like to provoke

Thanks Gary

US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation
9 months ago

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
10 months ago

Gary,

it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is sounding a bit long in the tooth.

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
10 months ago

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

The Bank Of Canada Introduces Ambiguity Into Rate Policy
1 year ago

A thoughtful and clear explanation of why the BoC is on hold

Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?
1 year ago

Gary

Every time I think that the markets should have fully discounted an issue-e.g. tariffs, rate changes--somehow the market still reacts.

Who really knows.

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