Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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Is The US In Dangerous Territory Or In For A Soft Landing?
Given the many signs of consumer and investment spending weakness just ahead, the Fed is clearly in a very difficult position if it raises interest rates further and/or keeps the current level of interest rates too high for too long.
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US Inflation Is Easing - But How Fast?
Over the past year stubbornly high inflation has been a major bugaboo for the consuming public, policymakers and of course for investors.
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Canada’s Tight Job Market Is Starting To Weaken
Even with a major step up in immigration, Canada faces serious, longer-term labor shortages.
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Interest Rates And Central Banks
As interest rates rise and central bank balance sheets shrink, the possibility of a global financial crisis has increased.
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The IMF’s Latest Bleak Projections For The Global Economy Are Too Optimistic
The US economy expanded 5.7% in its rebound year 2021 and is projected (on the pessimistic side) to grow only 1.6% this year and only 0.9% in 2023.
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U.S. Inflation Over The Next 5 Years
U.S. inflation is gradually easing and bond investors are expecting a return to normal interest rates five years from now.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Canada’s Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been Shrinking For Quite A While
1 year ago

You are right. The new Canadians (green bar) have the higher unemployment rates in all cases. 

Canada’s Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been Shrinking For Quite A While
1 year ago

You are right. The new Canadians (green bar) have the higher unemployment rates in all cases. 

The Perils Of Forecasting Inflation
1 year ago

Right on Norman. The problem with these so called temporary shocks (oil prices, some agriculture products, etc.) is that we dont have a good handle on how long it itakes to return to supply normalcy. 

Your perpective on weakening econmic demand is also important. 

Canadian Net Worth Increases Despite COVID-19
1 year ago

Hard to believe, but you are right

Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
1 year ago

Nice column Norm.

Indeed, the adjustment to the new employment reality will be very rocky.

Another interesting factoid, Changes in Canada's monthly employment numbers have been almost perfectly correlated with the different phases of the Corona virus and the ebb and flow of the related restrictions. We are currently at the tail end of the third Covid wave, and this is why Canada lost so many jobs in April and May,

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
1 year ago

Great article Norman.

You are of course right that it is a liquidity trap, except based on negative central bank rates.

Shows how difficult it is for the ECB to stimulate the economy with its monetary policy. As Keynes argued many years ago (i.e. the 1930s), you need to use an aggressive fiscal policy in a liquidity trap. The Biden Administration seems to understand this better than the Europeans.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
1 year ago

interesting point about the collapse in the velocity of M

When It Comes To The Canadian Dollar The Bank Of Canada Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
1 year ago

nice article Norm

The C$ certainly is too strong for the Canadian economy at this time.

But as you point out, its strength is really the mirror image of the US dollar weakness.

The Fed also does not target its currency.

The Rocky Path Towards A US Economic Recovery
2 years ago

Hi William

Bravo. I couldn't agree more.

As a Canadian who has studied and worked in the US, I have always admired your country, particularly its dynamic economy and the interesting and a bit bewildering political system. However, with all of its warts, I always took US democracy for granted.

Now, like many others, my admiration has sharply diminished. Particularly, I am also appalled by the selfishness of the 1%.

Business And Households Amass Cash To Withstand The Pandemic
2 years ago

Excellent piece Norman. A lot of household spending power, if confidence is resumed.

My guess is that even when the real economy has a bit of momentum, consumer confidence will continue to be dicey since there are so many difficult challenges in the environment to digest -- job security, investment and pensions, etc.

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