Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E IMF's Gloomy Global Economic Projections
The latest IMF global economic projections are very gloomy. Given that we are navigating uncharted waters, the gloom is justified.
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E The Federal Reserve Massive Buying Of Government Debt
The US Fed’s massive purchases of government debt, (monetizing the debt) is timely and appropriate
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E We Are Trapped In A Phase Of Major Unknowns
We are trapped in a phase of unknowns in charting the future course of the economy and the financial markets. A V-shaped recovery is unlikely.
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E The IMF’s Global Economic Projections Are Discouraging, Perhaps Too Optimistic
Pay attention to the possible worst case scenario.
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E The US Jobs Picture Is Dismal - There Is No Sugar Coating The Outlook
The Covid-19 virus and the shutdown of the US economy have demolished the US job market.
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E Negative Interest Rates Make Sense To Bond Investors, But Do Not Always Boost The Economy
Negative interest rates may make for a difficult or unusual for monetary policy, but from a bond investor perspective, they can make sense, even if intuitively it is a bit hard to grasp.
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Comments

Latest Comments
IMF's Gloomy Global Economic Projections
8 hours ago

I agree the outlook is very risky.

thanks for your comment

We Are Trapped In A Phase Of Major Unknowns
2 days ago

I beg to differ. The risk we face is deflation, not inflation.

Where Has All This Printed Money Gone To?
27 days ago

NIce column

Your point on MV=PY is instructive. Could it be the defn of money has changed. Really all you can say is that the velocity of money, conventionally defined, has fallen.

But what about money substitutes, which move far beyond the conventional defn.?

A related point. It is often not realized that when the demand for money falls, Ceteris Paribus, the money supply shrinks. (the money stock is determined at the intersection of the supply and the demand curves)

That is, the money supply is a function of both the demand and the supply of money.

Your conclusion on the macro effects are right on.

Coronavirus And Trump's Clever Inadequacy
4 months ago

Great series of insights Gary.

All the best,

Arthur

The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To
5 months ago

thanks Gary

Good charts or tables should easily tell a story.

That's why I like using charts.

Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
5 months ago

HI Gary,

Thanks for your comment.

No doubt Trump can make Germany's problems worse.

But 2020 is an election year. My political guess is that he would want to avoid another trade dispute at this time. (After all, the China phase 1 was hardly a win for the US)

For The Bank Of Canada Hope Is The Only Strategy
5 months ago

great article Norm

Like the Keynes quote

The US Economy Slowed To Its Trend Rate Of Growth This Year
7 months ago

I like to provoke

Thanks Gary

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