Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E The Trade Conflict Is Stifling Global Manufacturing
Around the world manufacturing is either slowing or contracting, adding to existing worries about Europe's debt crisis and the economic slowdown in Asia.
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E The Global Economy Is Slowing; The Chill From The US Trade War Makes It Worse
Based on first-quarter data only, growth in Japan was at a 0.9% annual rate, the UK’s growth rate was 1.8%, and Germany’s was 0.7%. Canada’s economy grew by 1.3% y/y as of the first quarter.
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E Canada's Wage Growth In July
In a nutshell, there has been a flattening out of total employment over the past three months.
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E Accesssing Fiscal Policy Measures
In the next economic crisis some OECD countries will have trouble using fiscal policy because of their high debt-to- GDP ratios.
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E US Consumer Spending Strong In Q2
US consumer spending was impressively strong in the second quarter, but business investment was quite weak.
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E Central Banks Should Forget About The 2% Inflation Target
If, with nearly fully employed economies in all cases, inflation remains below 2%, then so be it.
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Latest Comments
US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation
3 months ago

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
4 months ago

Gary,

it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is sounding a bit long in the tooth.

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
4 months ago

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

The Bank Of Canada Introduces Ambiguity Into Rate Policy
6 months ago

A thoughtful and clear explanation of why the BoC is on hold

Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?
6 months ago

Gary

Every time I think that the markets should have fully discounted an issue-e.g. tariffs, rate changes--somehow the market still reacts.

Who really knows.

China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War
8 months ago

Yep

Your comment is right on.

China is trying to diversify its own imports. Imports from Asian countries grew faster than imports from the US.

Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences
10 months ago

I found your article to be very insightful. As an aside, I have also long thought that the division between what is manufacturing and what can be classified as services to be very blurry. All the best.

Canada Had A Jobs Rebound In June, But Short-Term Outlook Less Encouraging
1 year ago

thanks for your comment. where are you located?

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Arthur Donner Commented on US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation:

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

Arthur Donner Commented on US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit:

Gary,

it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is soun...

more
Arthur Donner Commented on US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit:

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

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