Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E The Pandemic Sharply Reduced Canadian Household Formation
The pandemic sharply reduced Canadian household formation in 2020. With immigration projected to rebound, household growth should surge in 2021 and 2022.
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E The US Job Market And Economy Are Far From Healthy
Don’t be misled by robust American economic growth numbers. The job market and the economy are far from healthy.
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E Canada’s Job Market Recovered A Bit Faster Than America's, But It's Still Not Healthy
Canada’s current jobs and economic recovery has been faster than recoveries from previous economic recessions. Nonetheless, all is still far from well.
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E The Fed Assumes A Soft Landing In 2022
We hope the Fed is right.
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E Canada's Housing Market Is In Bubble Territory
Affordability problems make the bubble very vulnerable. New mortgage rate qualifications in Canada are also very onerous.
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E The Economic Recovery From The Global Pandemic Recession Is Very Uneven
Employment virtually everywhere is still lower that pre pandemic levels. Inflation is also rising in most of the advanced economies, and the inflation spike is clearly tied to unusual bottleneck problems.
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Comments

Latest Comments
The Perils Of Forecasting Inflation
5 days ago

Right on Norman. The problem with these so called temporary shocks (oil prices, some agriculture products, etc.) is that we dont have a good handle on how long it itakes to return to supply normalcy. 

Your perpective on weakening econmic demand is also important. 

Canadian Net Worth Increases Despite COVID-19
4 months ago

Hard to believe, but you are right

Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
4 months ago

Nice column Norm.

Indeed, the adjustment to the new employment reality will be very rocky.

Another interesting factoid, Changes in Canada's monthly employment numbers have been almost perfectly correlated with the different phases of the Corona virus and the ebb and flow of the related restrictions. We are currently at the tail end of the third Covid wave, and this is why Canada lost so many jobs in April and May,

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
6 months ago

Great article Norman.

You are of course right that it is a liquidity trap, except based on negative central bank rates.

Shows how difficult it is for the ECB to stimulate the economy with its monetary policy. As Keynes argued many years ago (i.e. the 1930s), you need to use an aggressive fiscal policy in a liquidity trap. The Biden Administration seems to understand this better than the Europeans.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
7 months ago

interesting point about the collapse in the velocity of M

When It Comes To The Canadian Dollar The Bank Of Canada Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
8 months ago

nice article Norm

The C$ certainly is too strong for the Canadian economy at this time.

But as you point out, its strength is really the mirror image of the US dollar weakness.

The Fed also does not target its currency.

The Rocky Path Towards A US Economic Recovery
11 months ago

Hi William

Bravo. I couldn't agree more.

As a Canadian who has studied and worked in the US, I have always admired your country, particularly its dynamic economy and the interesting and a bit bewildering political system. However, with all of its warts, I always took US democracy for granted.

Now, like many others, my admiration has sharply diminished. Particularly, I am also appalled by the selfishness of the 1%.

Business And Households Amass Cash To Withstand The Pandemic
11 months ago

Excellent piece Norman. A lot of household spending power, if confidence is resumed.

My guess is that even when the real economy has a bit of momentum, consumer confidence will continue to be dicey since there are so many difficult challenges in the environment to digest -- job security, investment and pensions, etc.

It Is An Open Secret That Central Banks Are Moving Towards Digital Currencies
1 year ago

nice article Norm. I agree that the shift to digital transactions shouldn't hurt the Cdn banks.

The Pandemic Recession And Central Banks
1 year ago

thanks for your comment.

There is virtually no inflation risk on the horizon. Indeed, the risk is entirely one of low inflation, or in a worst case, deflation;

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