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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E US Corporate Profits Soared Last Year, In Nominal Terms And As A Percentage Of GDP
Corporate profits in the United States rose sharply in 2018, reaching an all-time high of $2,076.8 billion in the third quarter.
E An Extremely Strong US Job Market In The Middle Of The Trump Mandate
The US job market heated up right through all of 2018 and into January of this year. Virtually all indicators suggest that the demand for labor in 2019 will again run ahead of the supply of new workers looking for employment.
E The Tax Cut Sharply Reduced Government Revenues, Even Though Supporters Claimed No Revenue Shortfall
As predicted by many economists, overall tax revenues and corporate tax revenues have declined sharply. On its own, this is very unusual for an economy at full capacity and with record low unemployment.
E According To The CBO, The US Govt. Is On A Long-Term Trajectory Of Red Ink
Under the baseline scenario, the CBO projects the budget deficit will increase from 3.8% in 2018 to a high of 4.7% of GDP by 2022. Another version shows a high of nearly 7% of GDP. And that's without recession.
E Major Governments Have Lost Fiscal Flexibility Because Of High Levels Of Indebtedness
In virtually all cases, government indebtedness is currently considerably higher than it was in the period preceding the great financial meltdown.
E External Trade Matters Less To China’s Economy Than In The Past
China posted a total trade surplus of USD $351.76 billion in 2018, its lowest since 2013, as exports increased 9.9% (its strongest performance in seven years), while imports were up 15.8%.
E The ECB Admits That The Euro Area Economy Faces Stiff Headwinds
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, has been forced to acknowledge that the risks to the Euro Area’s economy have dramatically worsened.
E Canadian Housing Lousy In 2018
Behind the housing market slowdown in Canada are three key issues - the challenges posed by higher interest rates, Canada’s mortgage stress test, and specific local housing policy measures in BC which sharply reduced buying pressures.
E Canada’s High Inventories
One of the indicators suggesting that the Canadian economy is facing severe headwinds is the huge build-up of manufacturing inventories late last year.
E Did Shrinking The Fed’s Portfolio Worsen The Stock Market?
In January the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% to 2.5% and indicated that rates may stay unchanged for some time.
E We Can’t Count On China To Offset Slower Growth In The Advanced Economies
In all of 2018, China’s economy grew 6.6%, the slowest reported growth rate since 1990.
E Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?
By and large, indicators in Canada and the US, and isolated indicators in the UK and Europe, suggest that there is still momentum in the economy.
E The Global Economy Is Decelerating, Economic Anxiety Is Increasing
Taking a look at the major world economies for 2018 through 2020.
E The American Economy Still Has Considerable Momentum
The five-week US government shutdown may have hurt the economy, but there are no signs that the estimated $11 billion hit slowed the job market.
E Slumping Energy Prices Doubled Canada’s Merchandise Trade Deficit In November
Canada’s merchandise trade deficit rose sharply to $2.1 billion in November from just under a $1 billion in each of the two previous months.
E Canada’s Stringent Stress Test Rules Slowed Residential Mortgage Growth
Canada’s new mortgage credit and accessibility rules not only slowed the growth of mortgage credit but also deflated resale home prices.
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