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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E US Home Price Increases Have Slowed And A Mini Housing Slump Is Occurring
America’s house prices have been rising since 2012, but over the past year, the price gains have been shrinking due to higher mortgage rates and a general overheating of prices in most metropolitan markets.
E Despite Strong Gains In April, US Job Growth Is Bound To Slow Later This Year And In 2020
The April jobs report was positive for the equity markets in the sense that it reinforced the idea that the economy doesn’t need the Fed to ride to its rescue with interest rate cuts.
E The US Goldilocks Scenario Was Supported By Strong GDP Growth In The First Quarter
Worries about a slowing US economic expansion this year seem a bit premature considering that real GDP rose at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter.
E The World Economy Should Regain Some Momentum Later This Year
The global economy began to slow last year, and the best-case scenario is for a continuation of generally moderate growth into 2020.
E Is The Goldilocks Economic And Financial Boom Almost Over?
The current bull market in equities is on the verge of breaking records for its longevity.
E Sanctions Against Iran May Not Generate Regime Change
While it seems highly unlikely that Iran will change its policies or even change its regime because of Trump’s investment and trade sanctions, nonetheless the oil-dependent Iranian economy has been badly affected by the US sanctions.
E Japan's Significant Structural Problems
Japan plans to increase its consumption tax in October. A previous tax increase pushed the economy into recession.
E The British Economy Is In A Scary Phase
Even with the delay of the Brexit decision, the British economy is in a scary phase. The OECD projects a soft landing, which is a very chancy projection.
E Germany’s Slower Growth Weakens The Entire Euro Area
In terms of the economic outlook, there has been a spate of downgrades in GDP growth for this year, though the 2020 outlook still looks more promising.
E China Is Trying To Keep Its Economy Growing Above 6% By Increasing Infrastructure Investments
China's infrastructure investment appears to be accelerating this year as the government clearly intends to support the economy through a slower world economic growth phase made worse by the trade dispute with the US.
E Fears Of Weakness In Q1 Consumer Spending In Canada
Declining retails sales in Canada over the last several months have reinforced worries about weaker consumer spending and the Canadian economy slowing down.
E Canada’s Share Of US Imports Has Diminished Sharply
In 2007 more than 16% of U.S. goods imports came from Canada, and that share dropped to less than 13% last year.
E US Retail Sales Soared In March, Slightly Strengthening Outlook
The March gain in sales represents a sharp rebound from lackluster sales dating back to December.
E Are New Orders For US Capital Goods Losing Momentum?
Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft are a closely watched proxy for business investment spending and they slipped 0.1% in February.
E A New Indicator (The LIUR) Suggests That The American Job Market Still Has Some Slack
A labor input utilization rate (LIUR) measure could be a better indicator of the tightness of the job market.
E The Euro Area’s Economic Outlook Has Turned Gloomier
Over the past twelve months, year-over-year Euro Area growth has decelerated.
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