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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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S The Key To Our Inflation Problem Is Reducing Inflationary Expectations
The acceleration of inflation in North America during the economic recovery from the pandemic has created a set of difficult challenges for monetary policy.
S The World's Speedy Recovery From The Pandemic
The world’s speedy recovery from the pandemic recession strongly differs from the slow recovery following the 2008 financial crash.
S Canada’s Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been Shrinking For Quite A While
The labor shortage has been particularly hard on smaller businesses that have borne the brunt of the pandemic. Smaller firms experienced a series of shutdowns and faced serious financial challenges.
S Canadian Employment In November 2021
The Canadian job market recovery seems somewhat stronger than the American. But both countries are struggling with labour shortages and weak real wages.
S US Jobs Gains Underwhelm; Job Shortages, Declining Real Wages Are Problems
Don’t let pundits tell you that a healthy job market is just around the corner. We still have a long way to go.
S The Latest Spike In US Inflation Is Frightening
Over the past twelve months, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.2%, which was the fastest twelve-month increase in over thirty years. 
S The US Jobs Rebound In October Was Encouraging
Pre pandemic the American labour force participation rate (LFP) was over 63%, while currently it is only about 61%. In other words, there has been a major decline in the size of the potential work force in the US, which can be traced to the pandemic.
S The Pandemic Sharply Reduced Canadian Household Formation
The pandemic sharply reduced Canadian household formation in 2020. With immigration projected to rebound, household growth should surge in 2021 and 2022.
S The US Job Market And Economy Are Far From Healthy
Don’t be misled by robust American economic growth numbers. The job market and the economy are far from healthy.
S Canada’s Job Market Recovered A Bit Faster Than America's, But It's Still Not Healthy
Canada’s current jobs and economic recovery has been faster than recoveries from previous economic recessions. Nonetheless, all is still far from well.
S The Fed Assumes A Soft Landing In 2022
We hope the Fed is right.
S Canada's Housing Market Is In Bubble Territory
Affordability problems make the bubble very vulnerable. New mortgage rate qualifications in Canada are also very onerous.
S The Economic Recovery From The Global Pandemic Recession Is Very Uneven
Employment virtually everywhere is still lower that pre pandemic levels. Inflation is also rising in most of the advanced economies, and the inflation spike is clearly tied to unusual bottleneck problems.
S Global Recovery
With the pandemic still raging, the uneven global economic outlook has become even murkier, significantly weakened by low-income countries' limited access to vaccines.
S Canada’s Pandemic Recession Is Far From Over
Canada’s economic recovery was a bit stronger than the American, though in real terms, Canada’s recovery lagged the American.
S 10-Year Yields And Implications
Interest rates have been unusually stable since 2009. Some important global interest rate trends have emerged during the pandemic. Inflation expectations still remain a key determinant of bond yields.
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