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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E The CBO’s Pessimistic But Realistic Outlook For The US Economy
These latest CBO projections clearly illustrate that the destructive effects of the pandemic and the shutting down parts of the US economy is not limited to a single year.
E The US Economic Recovery Is Slowing And Potentially Reversing, America Is Facing A Slow And Painful Economic Recovery
A number of recent economic indicators are suggesting that the US economic rebound has been losing steam in July. While the speed of the US economic rebound in May and June was quite rapid, nonetheless recent indicators are now less promising.
E US Personal Income, July 2020
Personal income was well supported during the early phase of the pandemic. The personal income surge may partially explain strong equity markets.
E Canada’s Economic Recovery From The Pandemic Recession Will Be Painful, Just As In The US
In broad strokes, because of the pandemic recession, the Canadian economy lost 3 million jobs between February and April and regained nearly one million jobs in June. In many respects, the cyclical jobs recovery was like the American experience.
E US Economy And Job Market Experienced A Sugar High
The unpleasant reality is that despite the strong June jobs recovery and the somewhat rosier than expected stock market, the Covid-19 recession is far from over.
E IMF's Gloomy Global Economic Projections
The latest IMF global economic projections are very gloomy. Given that we are navigating uncharted waters, the gloom is justified.
E The Federal Reserve Massive Buying Of Government Debt
The US Fed’s massive purchases of government debt, (monetizing the debt) is timely and appropriate
E We Are Trapped In A Phase Of Major Unknowns
We are trapped in a phase of unknowns in charting the future course of the economy and the financial markets. A V-shaped recovery is unlikely.
E The IMF’s Global Economic Projections Are Discouraging, Perhaps Too Optimistic
Pay attention to the possible worst case scenario.
E The US Jobs Picture Is Dismal - There Is No Sugar Coating The Outlook
The Covid-19 virus and the shutdown of the US economy have demolished the US job market.
E Negative Interest Rates Make Sense To Bond Investors, But Do Not Always Boost The Economy
Negative interest rates may make for a difficult or unusual for monetary policy, but from a bond investor perspective, they can make sense, even if intuitively it is a bit hard to grasp.
E India’s Economy Is Experiencing A Major Economic Slowdown
While incomes in India have continued to increase in recent years, nonetheless since 2016 private investment and the exports have deteriorated.
E The US Velocity Of Money Is At A 25 Year Low
The velocity of money is usually calculated as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to a country's M2 money supply. In other words, GDP and the money supply are the two key components of the velocity of money formula.
E Trade Protection Calmed
Trade protection worries have calmed because of phase 1 deal, but we are not out of the woods.
E Canadian Wage Inflation Escalated Sharply In January
Canada’s labour force survey indicates that 2020 began on a strong note since in January the economy created close to 35,000 jobs and the unemployment rate slipped lower to 5.5%.
E China's Liquidity Strains
China’s financial system experienced a major liquidity problem at the start of 2020. Now liquidity strains can also be traced to the coronavirus.
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