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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E Canadian Economy Cooled In 2019, Even Though Labor Market Stayed Strong
The Canadian economy slowed last year to an estimated 1.6% pace, though the job market performed very strongly. Canada’s economy expanded at an unusually fast 3.5% annual rate in the second quarter, though the growth slowed to only 1.3% in Q3.
E Negative Rates And Central Banks
With forecasts of a slower global economy, central banks around the world are once again contemplating that they might need a much easier monetary policy.
E The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To
The central banks in the advanced countries are all facing a similar quandary. Policy interest rates have been declining over the past 20 years, and in some cases, are barely above zero.
E Canada’s Economy Created 35,000 Jobs In December But Monthly Jobs Estimates Are Erratic
The December employment recovery led to a reduction in the unemployment rate to 5.6% from 5.9% in the previous month.
E Canadian Housing Starts Contracted In 2019, Though Construction In The Large Cities Is Booming
Canadian housing starts surprised pundits by dropping below the 200,000 annual unit level in December.
E Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
Germany has had a terrible manufacturing performance in all of 2019.
E With A Risky Brexit Coming, Johnson Inherited A Full Employment Economy
As was the case in the US, even in the face of somewhat slow economic growth., Britain’s job market strengthened last year, and the unemployment rate dropped to a four-decade low of under 4%.
E The Canadian Economy Cooled In 2019, Even Though The Labour Market Stayed Quite Strong
The Canadian economy slowed last year to an estimated 1.6% pace, though the job market performed very strongly.
E Why Have US Import Prices From China Been Relatively Stable?
The steep U.S. tariffs on most Chinese goods have had a puzzling lack of influence on import prices, raising questions about who exactly is paying the lion’s share of higher duties.
E The US Still Imposes Heavy Tariffs On Chinese Imports
Even though President Trump has called the trade deal “transformative,” this view is a complete exaggeration of reality. In fact, the agreement still leaves in place most of the tariffs Trump has imposed on Chinese goods since 2018.
E The December US Jobs Report Was Weaker Than Expected, But The Jobs Market Still Remains Very Tight
There are still no convincing signs of a new recession on the horizon.
E The Fed Seems Ok With Inflation Running Slightly Higher Than 2.5%
Worries about escalating inflation in the near term have virtually vanished from the financial markets as well as from the Federal Reserve’s recent policy discussions.
E Global Economic Growth Will Be Very Slow In 2020 And 2021 Even Assuming A Goldilocks Outlook
The World Bank estimates that global growth came in at only 2.4% in 2019 and projects that the world economy will only expand only slightly faster this year and in 2021.
E Canadian Employment Plunged In November, Sending Chills To Ottawa Policymakers
The Canadian unemployment rate rose four-tenths of a percentage point in November to 5.9%, its highest level since August 2018.
E The US Surge In Payroll Employment In November
The US surge in payroll employment suggests that the economy still has considerable momentum. There is still no recession in sight.
E Canada’s Current Account Deficit And Its Link To The Stable, But Weak, Canadian Dollar
Canada’s currency value relative to the US dollar and Canada’s current account deficit have kind of vanished from the investment community’s attention.
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