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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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Interest Rates And Central Banks
As interest rates rise and central bank balance sheets shrink, the possibility of a global financial crisis has increased.
The IMF’s Latest Bleak Projections For The Global Economy Are Too Optimistic
The US economy expanded 5.7% in its rebound year 2021 and is projected (on the pessimistic side) to grow only 1.6% this year and only 0.9% in 2023.
U.S. Inflation Over The Next 5 Years
U.S. inflation is gradually easing and bond investors are expecting a return to normal interest rates five years from now.
Canada Will Not Be Able To Avoid The Coming Global Downturn
Recent Canadian GDP data indicates that the economy expanded at a healthy 3.3% annual rate in the second quarter of 2022 following a 3.1% expansion in the previous quarter.
US Inflation May Have Peaked, But What About The Lasting Effects?
US inflation peaked, but the lasting effects from high inflation are painful and are rocking equity markets.
The Financial Markets Are Signaling Either A Slowdown Or A US Recession
The financial markets are signaling almost exactly what the IMF and the National Bank projections seem to imply, i.e. slower US growth, and /or even a US recession is just ahead. 
There Is No Doubt That We Are On The Verge Of A Global Recession
You don’t have to be an economic soothsayer to recognize that we are on the precipice of a global economic downturn.
The Key To Our Inflation Problem Is Reducing Inflationary Expectations
The acceleration of inflation in North America during the economic recovery from the pandemic has created a set of difficult challenges for monetary policy.
The World's Speedy Recovery From The Pandemic
The world’s speedy recovery from the pandemic recession strongly differs from the slow recovery following the 2008 financial crash.
Canada’s Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been Shrinking For Quite A While
The labor shortage has been particularly hard on smaller businesses that have borne the brunt of the pandemic. Smaller firms experienced a series of shutdowns and faced serious financial challenges.
Canadian Employment In November 2021
The Canadian job market recovery seems somewhat stronger than the American. But both countries are struggling with labour shortages and weak real wages.
US Jobs Gains Underwhelm; Job Shortages, Declining Real Wages Are Problems
Don’t let pundits tell you that a healthy job market is just around the corner. We still have a long way to go.
The Latest Spike In US Inflation Is Frightening
Over the past twelve months, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.2%, which was the fastest twelve-month increase in over thirty years. 
The US Jobs Rebound In October Was Encouraging
Pre pandemic the American labour force participation rate (LFP) was over 63%, while currently it is only about 61%. In other words, there has been a major decline in the size of the potential work force in the US, which can be traced to the pandemic.
The Pandemic Sharply Reduced Canadian Household Formation
The pandemic sharply reduced Canadian household formation in 2020. With immigration projected to rebound, household growth should surge in 2021 and 2022.
The US Job Market And Economy Are Far From Healthy
Don’t be misled by robust American economic growth numbers. The job market and the economy are far from healthy.
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