Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more


E The IMF’s Global Economic Projections Are Discouraging, Perhaps Too Optimistic
Pay attention to the possible worst case scenario.
E The US Jobs Picture Is Dismal - There Is No Sugar Coating The Outlook
The Covid-19 virus and the shutdown of the US economy have demolished the US job market.
E Negative Interest Rates Make Sense To Bond Investors, But Do Not Always Boost The Economy
Negative interest rates may make for a difficult or unusual for monetary policy, but from a bond investor perspective, they can make sense, even if intuitively it is a bit hard to grasp.
E India’s Economy Is Experiencing A Major Economic Slowdown
While incomes in India have continued to increase in recent years, nonetheless since 2016 private investment and the exports have deteriorated.
E The US Velocity Of Money Is At A 25 Year Low
The velocity of money is usually calculated as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to a country's M2 money supply. In other words, GDP and the money supply are the two key components of the velocity of money formula.
E Trade Protection Calmed
Trade protection worries have calmed because of phase 1 deal, but we are not out of the woods.


Latest Comments
Coronavirus And Trump's Clever Inadequacy
3 months ago

Great series of insights Gary.

All the best,


The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To
4 months ago

thanks Gary

Good charts or tables should easily tell a story.

That's why I like using charts.

Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
4 months ago

HI Gary,

Thanks for your comment.

No doubt Trump can make Germany's problems worse.

But 2020 is an election year. My political guess is that he would want to avoid another trade dispute at this time. (After all, the China phase 1 was hardly a win for the US)

For The Bank Of Canada Hope Is The Only Strategy
4 months ago

great article Norm

Like the Keynes quote

The US Economy Slowed To Its Trend Rate Of Growth This Year
6 months ago

I like to provoke

Thanks Gary

US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation
1 year ago

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
1 year ago


it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is sounding a bit long in the tooth.

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
1 year ago

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

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