Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 12
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Retail Sales Fall
Retail Sales remain well above the trend since 2009 due to a period of home-stocking, a result of the COVID-19 lockdown.
Lockdowns & Equity Flows
Daily TSA data and equity market prices reflect the impact newly announced lockdowns have had on travel and investor psychology.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update - Friday, Nov. 27
The lack of inflationary pressure currently is due to individuals getting good value for funds.
The Move To The ‘Burbs
Rents are collapsing and vacancies rising in cities and the beneficiaries of this are single-family home builders and the ‘burbs.
Mind Over Matter
Many believe market psychology drives the economy. They believe higher equity market prices drive economic activity because people become more optimistic when they see their wealth growing.
Growth Vs Value
The daily SP500 Value vs. Growth ETFs show that trends have changed.
Rates Rising, Spreads Rising & US Dollar At Pre-COVID Levels
While we are still in the NBER (National Bureau of Econ Research) declared recession period, it is clear that the T-Bill/10yr Treas Rate Spread is widening.
Work From Home The New Normal?
There are a ton of stocks at obscene levels as people were thinking “work at home” was going to be the new normal. It isn’t and it just can’t be for a host of reasons.
Employment Rises
US Household Survey reported a rise of 2.243mil employed to 149,806,000 over Sept 2020. Vehicle Sales SAAR(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) is estimated at 16.4mil.
Money Market Funds Indicator
Money Funds indicate that current market prices are closer to the major lows of the past with higher prices to come
Inflation?
There is a history of government spending vs periods of inflation leading many to believe that recent COVID-19 economic support cannot but raise inflation in the next few years.
Sales And Inventories
Real Retail Sales reported a historical high while many continue to discuss recession. This spike is likely to be revised in future reports but the trend from 2009 as the trend from 2009 remains intact.
Rates And The Yield Curve Rise
The US dollar is normalizing to pre-COVID levels after rising sharply during the panic of COVID.
Markets Follow...They Do Not Lead
The better approach is to identify well-managed companies and buy them when priced at historical discounts to management’s historical financial performance and sell them when priced at historical extremes.
Inventory To Sales Ratio At Historic Lows
Reported this morning with August Retail Sales is data on Inventory/Sales ratio from July.
Rail Traffic & Job Openings Rise
Job Openings and Intermodal Rail traffic continue to rise rapidly.
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