Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 11
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Retail Sales And Inflation
Real Retail Sales soared on recent stimulus activity. Recent reports have been well above the pre-COVID trend and not representative of normal retail activity.
Is The “Market” Overvalued?
The many calls for markets being over-priced come from the dominance currently of issues in the VOOG ETF.
TSA Traffic Continue To Rebound
The TSA data is a useful proxy for consumer confidence and population mobility.
Traffic Picking Up
The 10-day TSA Passenger traffic rise is very rapid in this daily series. Now 53.4% of the 2012 trend line when 10 days ago it was 41.3%.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update - Friday, March 26
The US market is not “cheap” by any means.
How High?
How high a market can climb in any cycle has many inputs all ending in peak enthusiasm at the time, i.e. “Market Psychology”.
Rates, Inflation, Market Valuation
Rising rates reflect investors shifting capital out of fixed income into other assets believed to offer better risk/return parameters.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update - Monday, Feb. 1
The S&P is by no means in a bubble…it also is by no means “cheap”.
A Top?
The many calls for a market top have missed and continue to miss the strength of the recovery. Well-regarded economic indicators signal much higher equity prices are likely for non-FAANG-type issues.
CAB Rises
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) reported an all-time high since 1919. It is the longest series of all indicators available with a sound correlation to economic activity.
S&P: Intrinsic Value Update
The market is not what I would call “overvalued” at all based on current data, it is not, though,  by any means “cheap”.
2020 In The Rearview Mirror, Looking Forward To 2021
We have to be unemotional when investing. We can't “hate” or “love” a company for some arbitrary reason as both emotions lead to bad results. We have to try and remain numb and see each for what it is.
TSA Traffic
After % pull back from 2019, TSA Travelers post new high vs 2019 of 40.6%-higher than Thanksgiving’s peak.
Historical Unemployment Vs Recessionary Periods
We have had many robust periods of economic activity with the current level of unemployment as long as unemployment was in a downtrend. Investors who do not have this perspective are missing the current investment opportunities available.
Investing Is Neither Simply “Science” Or “Math”
Investing is not science and math. It is far more judging management’s actions in the context of a fuzzy very broad view of human activity which we call economic activity.
IPO Frenzy
IPOs are in the news with gains of 100% from offering prices generating universal awe.
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