Having traveled for work last week I can certainly tell you air traffic is coming back, fast. People are sick of being couped up and are traveling……

“Davidson” submits:

Earlier, an est of 1% rise per day seemed to be the pace of TSA Passenger data rise. Now that more data is available on this emerging trend the ebbs and flows are tracing out something closer to 0.75% (a little less) per day moving normalization further out towards the end of May-early June. This remains a torrid recovery pace for air travel demand that is reflected in the EIA data with a 2wk lag.

Delta indicates they are having issues of staffing flights and are now filling the previously vacant middle seats. While a little more jet fuel is consumed by a full vs a partially full plane, a larger demand occurs when new flights are added regardless of capacity. This is likely occurring with some airlines currently and we should expect to see this reflected in EIA jet fuel consumption reports.

The TSA data is a useful proxy for consumer confidence and population mobility. The latest breakdown of enplanement data is from Nov 2020 and reflects Domestic travel 89% vs Intl 11%. Pre-COVID statistics place Intl enplanements in the 13%-14% range. Despite the headlines indicating more lockdowns in Europe, it appears recovery towards normal Intl travel activity has been occurring at roughly the same pace as in the US.

The US is currently experiencing an employment surge as key states reverse mandated lockdowns. It is likely that last month’s surge will be exceeded in the coming months. It will be interesting to see if this is first reflected in the TSA data.

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