Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E Is Canada’s Booming Housing Market Primed For A Financial Crash
As of the second quarter of 2021, the Canadian housing market is still booming in terms of new construction, high prices, and escalating sales.
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E US GDP Projection Q2, 2021
We should expect a massive increase in US GDP in the second quarter of 2021.
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E The US Economy Is Nearly Back To Pre-Covid Levels, But Still Far From Normal
There is little doubt that the US economy is bouncing back rapidly from its Covid downturn.
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E Some G20 Economies Are Experiencing High Inflation And Unemployment
An overview of the G20 economies shows a wide range of growth and recovery but some are battling inflation and high unemployment, diluting their ability to bounce back.
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E The Fed Tries To Cool Inflation Worries - But Will It Work?
For some time now the Fed’s official stance has been that it would tolerate inflation rising moderately above its 2% desired target pace. 
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E An Encouraging Perspective On The Surging Canadian Dollar
A strengthening Canadian dollar should not prevent Canada’s economy from continuing on a fairly strong recovery trajectory. 
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Comments

Latest Comments
Canadian Net Worth Increases Despite COVID-19
1 month ago

Hard to believe, but you are right

Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
1 month ago

Nice column Norm.

Indeed, the adjustment to the new employment reality will be very rocky.

Another interesting factoid, Changes in Canada's monthly employment numbers have been almost perfectly correlated with the different phases of the Corona virus and the ebb and flow of the related restrictions. We are currently at the tail end of the third Covid wave, and this is why Canada lost so many jobs in April and May,

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
4 months ago

Great article Norman.

You are of course right that it is a liquidity trap, except based on negative central bank rates.

Shows how difficult it is for the ECB to stimulate the economy with its monetary policy. As Keynes argued many years ago (i.e. the 1930s), you need to use an aggressive fiscal policy in a liquidity trap. The Biden Administration seems to understand this better than the Europeans.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
5 months ago

interesting point about the collapse in the velocity of M

When It Comes To The Canadian Dollar The Bank Of Canada Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
5 months ago

nice article Norm

The C$ certainly is too strong for the Canadian economy at this time.

But as you point out, its strength is really the mirror image of the US dollar weakness.

The Fed also does not target its currency.

The Rocky Path Towards A US Economic Recovery
8 months ago

Hi William

Bravo. I couldn't agree more.

As a Canadian who has studied and worked in the US, I have always admired your country, particularly its dynamic economy and the interesting and a bit bewildering political system. However, with all of its warts, I always took US democracy for granted.

Now, like many others, my admiration has sharply diminished. Particularly, I am also appalled by the selfishness of the 1%.

Business And Households Amass Cash To Withstand The Pandemic
8 months ago

Excellent piece Norman. A lot of household spending power, if confidence is resumed.

My guess is that even when the real economy has a bit of momentum, consumer confidence will continue to be dicey since there are so many difficult challenges in the environment to digest -- job security, investment and pensions, etc.

It Is An Open Secret That Central Banks Are Moving Towards Digital Currencies
9 months ago

nice article Norm. I agree that the shift to digital transactions shouldn't hurt the Cdn banks.

The Pandemic Recession And Central Banks
9 months ago

thanks for your comment.

There is virtually no inflation risk on the horizon. Indeed, the risk is entirely one of low inflation, or in a worst case, deflation;

An Unconventional US Recession, An Unconventional Recovery And The New Economic Normal?
11 months ago

Thanks for your comments.

The US has always had a problem dealing with its poor.

The problem became more exaggerated by recent events, including the covid recession.

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