Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)

Robert P. Balan runs a trading and trading advisory service, Predictive Analytic Models, (PAM) at Seeking Alpha. PAM provides REAL-TIME trading advice and strategies and actual trades using guidance from US Treasury, Federal Reserve and term market money ... more


The Burden Of The Bullish-Bearish Meme: Unleash The Total Power Of Compounding And Large Numbers Laws, Instead
Forget about being bullish or bearish in your investments. Trade according to the seasonality of systemic liquidity flows instead, especially during an era when the primary driver of risk asset prices is largess from the Fed/Treasury.
We Very Likely Have Seen An Equity Market Peak As Biotech, Junk Fall Along With Bond Yields
With geopolitical and global health scare issues, as well as signs that the Fed is slowly devolving from very loose liquidity conditions to something that is more normal, risk assets are at significant risk, and bonds will benefit.
We May Be Looking At An Equity Market Blow-Off Stage, Getting More Proof To Position Downside
Equities have risen further; yields rose too but reversed quickly. Biotech and Junk are being hammered. Divergent moves, but it's because equities could be in the final blow-off stage.
Geopolitical Tensions Calm Down; Equities, Yields, And Oil Lower Near-Term; Gold To Resume Its Long Uptrend
Pardon us for being blasé, but we don't see war spelled in any of these risk assets e.g., equities, yields. We don't see it either, in the energy sector or gold.
'Prepare For Breakout': Assault On SPX's 3025 All-Time High May Succeed On Second Attempt
Assault and breach of 3025 all-time SPX highs probably on course in two to three trading days. The initial probe likely to fail, setting off a 2-day correction lower. A rally after breach of SPX ATH may crest circa November 6 at just below SPX 3100.
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
The new uptick in yields likely kicks off more sustained risk assets rallies. Indications for equities from models are very encouraging. We focus at implication of our High-Frequency model, which suggest a rally may last until October 30, at least.


Latest Comments
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
1 year ago

Repo rates go up when bank reserves fall because the reserves are being used as collateral in inter-bank lending. See the chart provided above. The reserves are not being lent out. Having little collateral is just like raising rates, and usually that is what happens with the dearth of collateral.

That depends on the context of what Dimon was saying, Rising rates USUALLY steepen the yield curve, and that helps the loan portfolios of banks, not hurt them. You understand of course that banks borrow short and the lend long, so rising rates improves their Bet Interest Margin income.

#What if treasuries, the collateral of choice in derivatives markets, lose too much value too quickly#

Just what hypothetical case of how much yield rise are you talking about and in what time frame? Of course for your fears to be realized the rise in yields, to be disastrous, have to really very high and very rapid. The 10 yr yield fell from the 8 November top of 3.3 to a low of 1.47 in less than a year, but the stock market went to new highs. One can always invoke hypothetical cases. but how realistic is your scenario? Its hard to argue against hypothetical cases because they have never happened. Give me a concrete situation, instead of a hypothetical question, otherwise we will be debating this issue for some time.

In this article: SPX, BITCOMP, ETH-X, UGAZ
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
1 year ago

Thanks for the comments Gary. In this case, rising yields are associated with rising bank reserves, so that means funding costs (term market rates, e,g, repo) will still be falling. It is easy and cheap enough to get funding from the term (money) market without resorting to margin calls.

In this article: SPX, BITCOMP, ETH-X, UGAZ
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
1 year ago

Fantastic article, Alan. Thanks for sharing.

PAM Sells The DXY And Buy EUR, AUD; Sells Gasoline And Refiners - Opportunistic Trades
1 year ago

Maybe you start with the primers Adam.

In this article: UGA, UUP
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
1 year ago

Hey Alan,

Thanks for steering me to TalkMarkets. You were on holiday?s?

In this article: QQQ, GLD, SLV, TLT, UUP, SPX, CRAK, DRIP
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AGQ ProShares Ultra Silver
AMCA iShares Russell 1000 Pure US Revenue ETF
BAR Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3X ETF
BCM iPath Pure Beta Broad Commodity ETN
BITCF First Bitcoin Capital Corp.
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CEF Central Fund of Canada Limited
CFA Compass EMP US 500 Vol Wtd ETF
CHGX Change Finance Diversified Impact U.S. Large Cap Fossil Fuel Free ETF
CMDT iShares Commodity Optimized Trust
COMT iShares Commodities Select Strategy
CRF Cornerstone Total Return Fund
CSCR Credit Suisse X-Links Cmdty Rotation ETN
DBC PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
DBP PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund
DBS PowerShares DB Silver Fund
DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
DDP PowerShares DB Commodity Short ETN
DEE PowerShares DB Commodity Double Shrt ETN
DEUS Deutsche X-trackers Russell 1000 CmpsFtr
DGL PowerShares DB Gold Fund
DGLD VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN
DGP PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN
DGZ DB Gold Short ETN
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJCI UBS AG, Jersey Branch
DJP iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return ETN
DMRL DeltaShares S&P 500 Managed Risk ETF
DOG ProShares Short Dow30
DPU PowerShares DB Commodity Long ETN
DRR Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN
DSLV VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver ETN
DULL Direxion Daily Silver Miners Index Bear 2x Shares ETF
DUSA DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc.
DWAC Elkhorn Commodity Rotation Strategy ETF
DXD ProShares UltraShort Dow30
DYY PowerShares DB Commodity Double Long ETN
DZZ PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN
EEH ELEMENTS Linked to the SPECTRUM Large CAP U.S. Sector Momentum Index
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EQAL PowerShares Russell 1000 Equal Wght ETF
EQL ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF
ESGL Oppenheimer ESG Revenue ETF
ESGS Columbia Sustainable US Equity Inc ETF
EUFX ProShares Short Euro
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FAAR First Trust Alt Abs Ret Strat ETF
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FWDD Madrona Domestic
FXE Euro Currency Trust
GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity ETF
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GHE REX Gold Hedged FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
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GLDI Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN
GLL ProShares UltraShort Gold
GLTR ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust
GOVT iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF
GSC GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN
GSEW Goldman Sachs Equal Weight U.S.
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
GSLC Guaranty Financial Corp
GSP iPathSM S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN
GTU Central GoldTrust
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HUSV First Trust Hrzn MgdVolatil Domestic ETF
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund
IAU iShares COMEX Gold Trust
IEF iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund
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IWB iShares Russell 1000 Index Fund
IWL iShares Trust
JHML JHancock Multifactor Large Cap ETF
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JUNE Dhandho Junoon ETF
LGLV SPDR Russell 1000 Low Volatility ETF
MGC Vanguard Mega Cap 300 Index ETF
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OEW Guggenheim S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF
ONEO SPDR Russell 1000 Momentum ETF
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OTPIX Nasdaq-100 Profund Investor Class
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OVLC Guggenheim US Lg Cp Optimized Vol ETF
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PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust
PLTM First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund
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PPLT ETFS Platinum Trust
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PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust ET
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QQQE Direxion Trust
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USCI United States Commodity Index
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ZF The Zweig Fund Inc.
ZSL ProShares UltraShort Silver
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Latest Posts
PAM Members Saddle The Market To The Top, Then Ride It For A Slide To The Bottom: Part 3 (Of 4), Jan 29, 2020
Bond yields leading markets lower today. TCB has not keeled over yet, but may finally peak tomorrow. If historical averages and liquidity models are correct, it's TIME to SELL equities.
PAM Members Saddle The Market To The Top, Then Ride It For A Slide To The Bottom: Part 2 (Of 4), Jan 28, 2020
PAM will give the markets chance to break identified price barriers, but if it looks like the effort is going to fail, PAM will exit the long TQQQs/TMVs purchased yesterday.
January 2020 Performance Of PAM Portfolios: It Was An Excellent Month, As Bond, Gold Prices Rose Sharply; And Equities Fell
January 2020 ended with a huge bang at PAM -- our two portfolios ended the month with stellar performances.
PAM Members Saddle The Market To The Top, Then Ride It For A Slide To The Bottom: Part 1 (Of 4), Jan 27, 2020
Be ready for small wave 4 type type of countertrend recovery for equities, oil, and yields (a pullback for gold). It may last for day-and-half to 2 days.
PAM Market Report (Jan 22, 2020): We Very Likely See An Equity Market Peak Today; Biotech, Junk Fall Along With Bond Yields
Several good price developments pre-market NY. Foremost is jdefp EWP measurement that of ES=3338.38 as the 161.8 fib off the 2018 end of year decline. If that's valid, then we'll very likely see a top today. That level is just a few points away. Lets see if EWP can deliver the goods in ESc1 today.
PAM Market Report (Jan 9, 2019): PAM Still Sees Falling Yields, Buys More UGLD; PAM Exits All Energy Bets (UGAZ, DGAZ, DWT)
If the liquidity models are correct, then we still get to see one more downleg in yields before a rally in yields until early March. No wonder gasoline and crude oil prices are in trouble -- gasoline consumption and production (demand) collapsed.
PAM Market Report (Jan 2, 2020): Gold Soars As Yields And DXY Fall; Equities Roll-Over, Point Lower For Two Weeks, At Least
Bond market taking lead as yields fall, while equities roll over. This confirms our thesis that the 10yr yield has peaked, completing a very strong technical signal for a top.
PAM Market Report (Dec 30, 2019): SPX Tops Out, 10yr Yield Doing Quadruple Tops; Gold To Rally Hard, DXY To Fall Significantly
Equities price action is consistent with a top having been seen. But the 10yr yield looks different. Maybe just Wave 2 action (an irregular) which is confirming a quadruple top.

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