Robert P. Balan runs a trading and trading advisory service, Predictive Analytic Models, (PAM) at Seeking Alpha. PAM provides REAL-TIME trading advice and strategies and actual trades using guidance from US Treasury, Federal Reserve and term market money ... more
Robert P. Balan runs a trading and trading advisory service, Predictive Analytic Models, (PAM) at Seeking Alpha. PAM provides REAL-TIME trading advice and strategies and actual trades using guidance from US Treasury, Federal Reserve and term market money flows.
Robert has almost 50 years of experience in the financial markets. Education in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training in economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994).
He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today’s new UBS) as head of technical research and as proprietary trader in various major finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently head of proprietary trading in Toronto, respectively) from late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research (in London and New York) followed in late 1990s to early 2000s. Robert did technical analysis for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the mid-200s based in New York. He returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX and commodity market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich.
Robert joined Diapason Commodities Management in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently as Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers, and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. He joined Diapason Currencies and Commodities as Chief Market Strategist in 2016.
Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which was hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as “the best book ever written on the subject”. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), USA.
| AGQ | ProShares Ultra Silver |
| AMCA | iShares Russell 1000 Pure US Revenue ETF |
| BAR | Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3X ETF |
| BCM | iPath Pure Beta Broad Commodity ETN |
| BITCF | First Bitcoin Capital Corp. |
| BXUB | Barclays Bank PLC |
| BXUC | Barclays Bank PLC |
| CEF | Central Fund of Canada Limited |
| CFA | Compass EMP US 500 Vol Wtd ETF |
| CHGX | Change Finance Diversified Impact U.S. Large Cap Fossil Fuel Free ETF |
| CMDT | iShares Commodity Optimized Trust |
| COMT | iShares Commodities Select Strategy |
| CRF | Cornerstone Total Return Fund |
| CSCR | Credit Suisse X-Links Cmdty Rotation ETN |
| DBC | PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund |
| DBP | PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund |
| DBS | PowerShares DB Silver Fund |
| DDM | ProShares Ultra Dow30 |
| DDP | PowerShares DB Commodity Short ETN |
| DEE | PowerShares DB Commodity Double Shrt ETN |
| DEUS | Deutsche X-trackers Russell 1000 CmpsFtr |
| DGL | PowerShares DB Gold Fund |
| DGLD | VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN |
| DGP | PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN |
| DGZ | DB Gold Short ETN |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average |
| DJCI | UBS AG, Jersey Branch |
| DJP | iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return ETN |
| DMRL | DeltaShares S&P 500 Managed Risk ETF |
| DOG | ProShares Short Dow30 |
| DPU | PowerShares DB Commodity Long ETN |
| DRR | Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN |
| DSLV | VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver ETN |
| DULL | Direxion Daily Silver Miners Index Bear 2x Shares ETF |
| DUSA | DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. |
| DWAC | Elkhorn Commodity Rotation Strategy ETF |
| DXD | ProShares UltraShort Dow30 |
| DYY | PowerShares DB Commodity Double Long ETN |
| DZZ | PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN |
| EEH | ELEMENTS Linked to the SPECTRUM Large CAP U.S. Sector Momentum Index |
| EPS | WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund |
| EQAL | PowerShares Russell 1000 Equal Wght ETF |
| EQL | ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF |
| ESGL | Oppenheimer ESG Revenue ETF |
| ESGS | Columbia Sustainable US Equity Inc ETF |
| EUFX | ProShares Short Euro |
| EUO | ProShares UltraShort Euro |
| FAAR | First Trust Alt Abs Ret Strat ETF |
| FEX | First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund |
| FMK | First Trust Mega Cap AlphaDEX Fund |
| FTGC | FRESH TRAFFIC GRP |
| FWDD | Madrona Domestic |
| FXE | Euro Currency Trust |
| GBTC | Bitcoin Investment Trust |
| GCC | WisdomTree Continuous Commodity ETF |
| GEUR | AdvisorShares Trust |
| GHE | REX Gold Hedged FTSE Emerging Markets ETF |
| GHS | Rex Gold Hedged S&P 500 ETF |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Trust ETF |
| GLDI | Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN |
| GLL | ProShares UltraShort Gold |
| GLTR | ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust |
| GOVT | iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF |
| GSC | GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN |
| GSEW | Goldman Sachs Equal Weight U.S. |
| GSG | iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust |
| GSLC | Guaranty Financial Corp |
| GSP | iPathSM S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN |
| GTU | Central GoldTrust |
| GYEN | AdvisorShares Gartman Gold/Yen ETF |
| HUSV | First Trust Hrzn MgdVolatil Domestic ETF |
| HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund |
| IAU | iShares COMEX Gold Trust |
| IEF | iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund |
| IVV | iShares S&P 500 Index Fund |
| IWB | iShares Russell 1000 Index Fund |
| IWL | iShares Trust |
| JHML | JHancock Multifactor Large Cap ETF |
| JKD | iShares Morningstar Large Core Index Fund |
| JUNE | Dhandho Junoon ETF |
| LGLV | SPDR Russell 1000 Low Volatility ETF |
| MGC | Vanguard Mega Cap 300 Index ETF |
| NASDX | The California Funds Nasdaq 100 Index Fund |
| OEF | iShares S&P 100 Index ETF |
| OEW | Guggenheim S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF |
| ONEO | SPDR Russell 1000 Momentum ETF |
| ONEV | SPDR Russell 1000 Low Volatil ETF |
| ONEY | SPDR Russell 1000 Yield ETF |
| OPD | Guggenheim Large Cp Optimizd Divers ETF |
| OTPIX | Nasdaq-100 Profund Investor Class |
| OUNZ | Van Eck Merk Gold ETF |
| OVLC | Guggenheim US Lg Cp Optimized Vol ETF |
| PALL | ETFS PHYSICAL PALLAD |
| PDBC | PowerShares DB Optm Yd Dvrs Cdty Srt ETF |
| PHYS | Sprott Physical Gold Trust |
| PLTM | First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund |
| PMOM | Principal Sustainable Momentum ETF |
| PPLC | PortfolioPlus S&P 500 ETF |
| PPLT | ETFS Platinum Trust |
| PRF | Powershares FTSE RAFI US 1000 Portfolio |
| PSLV | Sprott Physical Silver Trust ET |
| PSQ | ProShares Short QQQ |
| PTM | E-TRACS UBS Long Platinum ETN |
| QID | ProShares UltraShort QQQ |
| QLD | ProShares Ultra QQQ |
| QQEW | First Trust NASDAQ |
| QQQ | PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 |
| QQQE | Direxion Trust |
| QQXT | First Trust NASDAQ - 100 Ex |
| QUS | SPDR MSCI USA Quality Mix ETF |
| RCOM | Elkhorn Fundamental Commodity Strat ETF |
| RJI | ELEMENTS Rogers Commodity ETN |
| RSP | Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF |
| RVRS | Reverse Cap Weighted US Large Cap ETF |
| RYARX | Rydex Series Fds Inverse S&P 500 Strategy Fund |
| SBUS | ETFS Diversified-Factor US Large Cap |
| SCHX | SCHWAB US LARGE CAP ETF |
| SDOW | ProShares Indices |
| SDS | ProShares UltraShort S&P500 |
| SGOL | ETFS Physical Swiss Gold |
| SH | ProShares Short S&P500 |
| SHNY | Direxion Daily Silver Miners Index Bull 2x Shares ETF |
| SIVR | ETFS Silver Trust |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust |
| SLVO | Credit Suisse X-Links Silver CovCall ETN |
| SPDN | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF |
| SPHB | PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta Portfolio ETF |
| SPHQ | PowerShares Exchange-Traded Funds Trust |
| SPLG | SPDR Portfolio Large Cap ETF |
| SPLV | PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio ETF |
| SPLX | UBS ETRACS M Reset 2xLvg S&P 500 TR ETN |
| SPMO | PowerShares S&P 500 Momentum |
| SPPP | Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust |
| SPUU | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF |
| SPXE | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Energy |
| SPXL | Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X ETF |
| SPXN | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Financials |
| SPXS | Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X ETF |
| SPXT | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Technology |
| SPXU | ProShares Trust |
| SPXV | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Health Care |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 |
| SQQQ | ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ |
| SSO | ProShares Ultra S&P500 |
| SYE | SPDR MFS Systematic Core Equity ETF |
| TLH | iShares Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fund |
| TOMDF | Toldos Medical |
| TQQQ | ProShares UltraPro QQQ |
| UBG | E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Gold ETN |
| UCI | E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI ETN |
| UDN | PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund |
| UDOW | ProShares Indices |
| UDPIX | Ultra Dow 30 Profund Investor Class |
| UGL | ProShares Ultra Gold |
| UGLD | VelocityShares 3x Long Gold ETN |
| ULE | ProShares Ultra Euro |
| UPRO | ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF |
| URR | Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN |
| USA | Liberty All-Star Equity Fund |
| USCI | United States Commodity Index |
| USDU | WisdomTree Bloomberg USD Bullish ETF Fund |
| USLV | VelocityShares 3x Long Silver ETN |
| USMC | Principal U.S. Mega-Cap Multi-Factor Index ETF |
| USO | United States Oil Fund, LP |
| USSD | WisdomTree Strong Dollar US Equity ETF |
| USV | E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Silver ETN |
| UUP | PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund |
| VFINX | Vanguard Index Trust 500 Index Fund |
| VONE | V-One Corporation |
| VOO | VANGUARD FIVE HUNDRED INDEX |
| VV | Vanguard Large-Cap ETF |
| XLG | Rydex Russell Top 50 ETF |
| XRLV | PowerShares S&P 500ex-Rate SnsvLwVtl ETF |
| ZF | The Zweig Fund Inc. |
| ZSL | ProShares UltraShort Silver |
Latest Comments
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
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Repo rates go up when bank reserves fall because the reserves are being used as collateral in inter-bank lending. See the chart provided above. The reserves are not being lent out. Having little collateral is just like raising rates, and usually that is what happens with the dearth of collateral.
That depends on the context of what Dimon was saying, Rising rates USUALLY steepen the yield curve, and that helps the loan portfolios of banks, not hurt them. You understand of course that banks borrow short and the lend long, so rising rates improves their Bet Interest Margin income.
#What if treasuries, the collateral of choice in derivatives markets, lose too much value too quickly#
Just what hypothetical case of how much yield rise are you talking about and in what time frame? Of course for your fears to be realized the rise in yields, to be disastrous, have to really very high and very rapid. The 10 yr yield fell from the 8 November top of 3.3 to a low of 1.47 in less than a year, but the stock market went to new highs. One can always invoke hypothetical cases. but how realistic is your scenario? Its hard to argue against hypothetical cases because they have never happened. Give me a concrete situation, instead of a hypothetical question, otherwise we will be debating this issue for some time.
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
Thanks for the comments Gary. In this case, rising yields are associated with rising bank reserves, so that means funding costs (term market rates, e,g, repo) will still be falling. It is easy and cheap enough to get funding from the term (money) market without resorting to margin calls.
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
Fantastic article, Alan. Thanks for sharing.
PAM Sells The DXY And Buy EUR, AUD; Sells Gasoline And Refiners - Opportunistic Trades
talkmarkets.com/.../personalblogs/
PAM Sells The DXY And Buy EUR, AUD; Sells Gasoline And Refiners - Opportunistic Trades
Maybe you start with the primers Adam.
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
Hey Alan,
Thanks for steering me to TalkMarkets. You were on holiday?s?