Robert P. Balan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)

Robert P. Balan runs a trading and trading advisory service, Predictive Analytic Models, (PAM) at Seeking Alpha. PAM provides REAL-TIME trading advice and strategies and actual trades using guidance from US Treasury, Federal Reserve and term market money ... more


Latest Posts
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PAM Members Saddle The Market To The Top, Then Ride It For A Slide To The Bottom: Part 3 (Of 4), Jan 29, 2020
Bond yields leading markets lower today. TCB has not keeled over yet, but may finally peak tomorrow. If historical averages and liquidity models are correct, it's TIME to SELL equities.
PAM Members Saddle The Market To The Top, Then Ride It For A Slide To The Bottom: Part 2 (Of 4), Jan 28, 2020
PAM will give the markets chance to break identified price barriers, but if it looks like the effort is going to fail, PAM will exit the long TQQQs/TMVs purchased yesterday.
January 2020 Performance Of PAM Portfolios: It Was An Excellent Month, As Bond, Gold Prices Rose Sharply; And Equities Fell
January 2020 ended with a huge bang at PAM -- our two portfolios ended the month with stellar performances.
PAM Members Saddle The Market To The Top, Then Ride It For A Slide To The Bottom: Part 1 (Of 4), Jan 27, 2020
Be ready for small wave 4 type type of countertrend recovery for equities, oil, and yields (a pullback for gold). It may last for day-and-half to 2 days.
PAM Market Report (Jan 22, 2020): We Very Likely See An Equity Market Peak Today; Biotech, Junk Fall Along With Bond Yields
Several good price developments pre-market NY. Foremost is jdefp EWP measurement that of ES=3338.38 as the 161.8 fib off the 2018 end of year decline. If that's valid, then we'll very likely see a top today. That level is just a few points away. Lets see if EWP can deliver the goods in ESc1 today.
PAM Market Report (Jan 9, 2019): PAM Still Sees Falling Yields, Buys More UGLD; PAM Exits All Energy Bets (UGAZ, DGAZ, DWT)
If the liquidity models are correct, then we still get to see one more downleg in yields before a rally in yields until early March. No wonder gasoline and crude oil prices are in trouble -- gasoline consumption and production (demand) collapsed.
PAM Market Report (Jan 2, 2020): Gold Soars As Yields And DXY Fall; Equities Roll-Over, Point Lower For Two Weeks, At Least
Bond market taking lead as yields fall, while equities roll over. This confirms our thesis that the 10yr yield has peaked, completing a very strong technical signal for a top.
PAM Market Report (Dec 30, 2019): SPX Tops Out, 10yr Yield Doing Quadruple Tops; Gold To Rally Hard, DXY To Fall Significantly
Equities price action is consistent with a top having been seen. But the 10yr yield looks different. Maybe just Wave 2 action (an irregular) which is confirming a quadruple top.
Summary Of PAM Portfolios As Of Year-End 2019: It Was A Good Year For Swing And Algo Trading
2019 was a good year for swing and algo trading for Predictive Analytic Models. The liquidity models provided excellent guidance, allowing PAM to exceed internal goals of 40% annualized performance.
PAM Market Report (Dec 27, 2019): Yields May Have Peaked; PAM Adds To Long Bond And Long Gold Positions
The TCB had peaked; current (2019) 10yr yield is already past the top of the 10yr yield's 5-year average. We believe we have already seen an inflection point in yields.
PAM Report (Oct 16, 2019): Small Correction Completes Ahead Of Impending Assault On 3020-3025 All-Time SPX Peaks
The small ESc1 correction to the sharp upthrust in risk asset prices yesterday seems about over. ESc1 is likely gearing for the initial assault upon the 3020 - 3025 peaks. The initial probe will likely fail; that's already indicated by the SPX change rate. And those peaks are all time highs.
PAM Market Report (Oct 9, 2019): "Test Of The Bottom" Likely Over; Yields Lead Charge To The Upside; DXY Sets Up A Sell Trade
Wave 2 corrections ("test of bottoms") are likely over. If the recovery seen in pre-NY market goes further, then we have passed the most dangerous part of the correction. Trend remains up,and will resume very soon. Watch for the yield, which will lead risk assets higher.
It Looks Like The "Recession" Is Over Before It Even Started: Monetary, Fiscal Stimuli To Push Global, US Economic Recovery
Global growth is forecast at 3.2 percent in 2019, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2020 (0.1 percentage point lower than in the April WEO projections for both years)- IMF. The much-ballyhooed "recession" is over, or at least postponed.
PAM Market Report (Sept 5, 2019): After Minor Low In Sept 10-11, Equities Rally To A Sept 16-17 Top, Then Falls Until Sept. 23-24
After equity's intermediate trough in Sept 10-11, we should see a strong rally to a top on Sept 16-17. That may be followed by a sharper decline, until Sept 23-24.
PAM Market Report (Aug 23, 2019): Equities Overdue For Declines Short-Term; PAM Sells Today, Go Long Gold, Bonds Again
We're really due, even overdue, for equity declines in the short-term. That a sell-off is overdue is also confirmed by the 2019 SOMA (Fed) Model. PAM sells equities TODAY.
PAM Market Report (Aug 7, 2019): Stable Regime Should Last Until Aug 20; SPX, Yields, DXY, Oil Will Rise, Gold, PMs Correct Lower
High Frequency SPX model confirms that, indeed, the bottom of the recent sell-off was August 5. That's also confirmed in the chart of the 5yr averages in TCB, SOMA, SPX.
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