Robert P. Balan runs Predictive Analytic Models, #1-rated trading unit at Seeking Alpha. PAM trades Swiss HF funds using Federal Reserve, US Treasury, and term (money) market liquidity data flows as basis for trading decisions. He is domiciled in Zurich, Switzerland.
Robert Balan 5 decades of ...
more Robert P. Balan runs Predictive Analytic Models, #1-rated trading unit at Seeking Alpha. PAM trades Swiss HF funds using Federal Reserve, US Treasury, and term (money) market liquidity data flows as basis for trading decisions. He is domiciled in Zurich, Switzerland.
Robert Balan 5 decades of experience in the financial markets. Education in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training in economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994). He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today's new UBS) as head of technical research in various finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently, head of prop trading at SBC in Toronto ) from the late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research followed in late 1990s to the early 2000s. Robert returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich. Robert wrote FX analysis and capital markets commentary for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the early 2000s. He joined Diapason Commodities Management in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which has been hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as best ever book written on the subject. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), U.S.A.
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Latest Comments
2021 Outlook For The Long Bond Yield, Equities And The VIX
Thanks a lot for kind sentiments. Bill
The Equity Market Outlook Until The First Half Of December 2020 Is Not A Pretty Sight, Liquidity-Wise
Yes, I was told that Carl. Busy making money, but will write more.
The Equity Market Outlook Until The First Half Of December 2020 Is Not A Pretty Sight, Liquidity-Wise
Welcome, and thanks for the kind thoughts Susan
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
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Repo rates go up when bank reserves fall because the reserves are being used as collateral in inter-bank lending. See the chart provided above. The reserves are not being lent out. Having little collateral is just like raising rates, and usually that is what happens with the dearth of collateral.
That depends on the context of what Dimon was saying, Rising rates USUALLY steepen the yield curve, and that helps the loan portfolios of banks, not hurt them. You understand of course that banks borrow short and the lend long, so rising rates improves their Bet Interest Margin income.
#What if treasuries, the collateral of choice in derivatives markets, lose too much value too quickly#
Just what hypothetical case of how much yield rise are you talking about and in what time frame? Of course for your fears to be realized the rise in yields, to be disastrous, have to really very high and very rapid. The 10 yr yield fell from the 8 November top of 3.3 to a low of 1.47 in less than a year, but the stock market went to new highs. One can always invoke hypothetical cases. but how realistic is your scenario? Its hard to argue against hypothetical cases because they have never happened. Give me a concrete situation, instead of a hypothetical question, otherwise we will be debating this issue for some time.
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
Thanks for the comments Gary. In this case, rising yields are associated with rising bank reserves, so that means funding costs (term market rates, e,g, repo) will still be falling. It is easy and cheap enough to get funding from the term (money) market without resorting to margin calls.
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
Fantastic article, Alan. Thanks for sharing.
PAM Sells The DXY And Buy EUR, AUD; Sells Gasoline And Refiners - Opportunistic Trades
talkmarkets.com/.../personalblogs/
PAM Sells The DXY And Buy EUR, AUD; Sells Gasoline And Refiners - Opportunistic Trades
Maybe you start with the primers Adam.
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
Hey Alan,
Thanks for steering me to TalkMarkets. You were on holiday?s?