Norman Mogil - Comments
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

Latest Comments
Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
13 days ago

The Fed thinks it can let the air out of the bubble very slowly. It believes it can just change its QE program to let the air out. It remains to be seen that that is true

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
13 days ago

Europe continues to be very tight fisted when it comes to government spending. There appears to be no change in that direction at all.

Inflation Fears Relating To $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Are Exaggerated
22 days ago

Arthur an excellent analysis of why inflation will be more like a spike in prices rather than a sustained increase in the price level. Yet I've never seen such a groundswell of opinion that is all one-sided. There's no historical record to sustained that view or that compares to what's happened during the pandemic. So it is a mystery to me how they come about with such strong growth forecast and inflationary fears. I think the FED has a better grasp of what likely happen than the Wall Street consensus. However that narrative will not die so soon and we can expect it to go on until proven wrong.

Inflation Is Broken
1 month ago

Housing costs are more related to the price of land. Land does not appreciate and is different from housing on the land which does depreciate. This complicates the measurement of housing costs per se.

The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
1 month ago

Very few talk about the collapse of velocity. Yet it is so pronounced as to completely offset anything on the monetary base.

How Effective Are Government Stimulus Programs?
1 month ago

I fully agree. We had the same situation in Canada where money was shoved out the door indiscriminately. I think govts just panicked and took no time to take the measurement of those in need and those not. I think govts believe that the pandemic would be short-lived and everyone who lost a job would get it back soon, so just helping temporarily was all that was needed. Now, we know better and the longer term consequences are just starting to sink in.

The Federal govt in Canada has not indicated it will adopt a similar policy that Biden is proposing--- indiscriminate handouts. We are all a little wiser.

No Way To Sugar-Coat The Economic Cost Of Canada’s Unemployment Numbers
2 months ago

I never thought it was a question of balancing health against the economy There should be no trade off. A sick population gives rise to a sick economy

No Way To Sugar-Coat The Economic Cost Of Canada’s Unemployment Numbers
2 months ago

I agree with you that they should have locked down completely and thoroughly right from the beginning the way it was done in Wuhan. Politicians in North America are not strong enough to make those decisions and stick with them

Inflation Expectations Are Rising. Will Actual Inflation Follow?
2 months ago

A well reasoned position on the outlook for inflation. A destruction of velocity is one of the key factors in the deflationary forces of work

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