Norman Mogil - Comments
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

Latest Comments
European Central Bankers Paint A Rather Gloomy Picture
12 days ago

The EU recession will spill over to the UK and to the US. Having one's own currency means that it will adjust to relative swings in its own balance of payments. Not having its own currency means that domestic income will adjust to swings in trade deficits ( this is what happened in Greece). Either way, the adjustment mechanism will take its toll on UK citizens. Already with the threat of no-deal Brexit, the UK is adjusting downward as the pound drops and domestic incomes suffer. Getting out of the EU thinking the UK can chart its own destiny independent of the EU is an illusion.

European Central Bankers Paint A Rather Gloomy Picture
12 days ago

Totally disagree. Great Britain will become Little England--- an orphan.

Trickle Down Didn't Work For Trump, Bush And Hoover. Here's Why
13 days ago

I am slowly come to the view that helicopter money is the only way out of this Keynesian liquidity trap. Negative real rates have not worked and QE has not worked. Milton Friedman was laughed at when I was in graduate school but he foresaw this problem

and the need for helicopter money,

Capitalism: Problem, Solution, Or Both
13 days ago

I recall Henry Ford's statement that he wanted to raise the wages of his assembly line workers so they can afford to buy the cars they make. I think that concept is lost in the US judging by the fall in real wages. In reference to the trickle down concept, I recall Galbraith saying that give a horse oats and you know what trickles down. He hated the conservative economics theory of growth.

Canadian Banks Back Away From Mortgage Lending
14 days ago

Exactly. There is pressure to ease up on the stress test. But the govt is resisting. All governments do not want to admit they over did it.

Capitalism: Problem, Solution, Or Both
14 days ago

You are correct that the US suffers from a weak effective demand, not dissimilar to what Keynes argued in the 1930s ( is that why you kept quoting Will Rogers?). Sadly, the recent corporate tax cut does nothing to boost effective demand. Ironically, stagnant nominal and falling real wages lead to Trump's win, but he and his party have done nothing to reverse that situation. Now, it may be too late given the $1.6 trill. debt that has to be financed by foreign trade partners--- another irony for the nation to accept.

Are Central Banks About To Shift Gears Towards Easing?
15 days ago

Gary, I fully agree. Central banks want to have real rates at about 2% so that is why they hanker for normalize rates of 4% or better. They cannot stand that we have had negative real rates for a decade and may have to revert to that should the Fed be forced to cut rates.

The Canadian Consumer Has Hit A Wall
27 days ago

I share you hope she gets back. U.S. Extraterritorial laws have plagued Canada for a long time-- the long arm of the US justice system is operating here. I regret Canada gave in so easily to US law enforcers.

Dumping Canadian assets may not be so easy. China bought heavily into Canadian oil sands when oil prices were in the $80 + range. It was controversial at the time, but now, no one cares.

Return Of The Bond Vigilante
1 month ago

Could the bond vigilantes be operating in reverse? Where the low rates,low term premium signify that monetary policy is too tight ( a la Milton Friedman's argument) and growth is too low?

Shrinking Global Liquidity Raises A Red Flag In The Equity Markets
1 month ago

I am not sure how else one can interpret that sucking out $50b a month as anything other than tightening. Bernanke warned against shrinking the balance sheet until interest rates were ' normal' --presumably much higher than today's because the normal rates would signal that growth was strong and tightening would not slow growth. However, the Fed started that process too early and the equity markets are not suffering from this withdrawal and from trade policies gone amok and China sliding. So, maybe the bad BBB debt is caused by the trade fight or by general slowing. Regardless, withdrawing cash from the system is not helping.

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