Norman Mogil - Comments
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

Latest Comments
The Federal Reserve Massive Buying Of Government Debt
2 days ago

A very good overview of the issue of monetizing debt. As you well explained it it is not a cardinal sin but sensible monetary policy at a time of enormous financial stress.

COVID-19 Impact On The Canadian Labor Market
24 days ago

The stock market is not the economy. It can behave irrationally on the belief that everything will get back to the pre covid days. Many of us think that the world has changed permanently and that growth will be slow and painful as we adjust to new environment. The real impact of the virus will hit in the fall when economy will continue to be weak and reality will set in.

Where Has All This Printed Money Gone To?
27 days ago

I agree that the definition of money is changed considerably in this digital age. But I think there still is a liquidity trap in that liquidity is held closely by the banks

It could get worse as the bank's contend with loan losses and the fear of a worsening credit environment.

Your point about the intersection of demand and supply is right on. There is a weakening supply supply and also a diminished demand as the economy slows down. A rather dismal Outlook.

Where Has All This Printed Money Gone To?
27 days ago

Everything just goes at a slower speed--- hence the term velocity.

Bond Yields And Monetary Velocity
1 month ago

The decline in long term rates is a function of deflation and the elimination of the term premium. Both are a reflection of falling velocity. Velocity is driving yields down.

Bondholders Are Rewarded As Deflation Starts To Take Hold
1 month ago

Worse yet it's all being plugged with debt. Nobody seems to want to raise equity to ward off insolvency because it will mean a watering down of share values. The system is becoming totally corrupted by the obsession with share values.

In this article: TLT
Central Bankers’ Real Challenge Is To Manage The Yield Curve
3 months ago

Thanks, Gary. The workings are much more specific as to target rates.The BoJ are clear that the 10yr be zero-- the fear is that it would go negative in the absence of their intervention. I see it as a one-way street, i.e. preventing yields from going negative. In WWII it was a case of preventing yields from going higher. Inflation is not the enemy, but deflation is. We should only be lucky to have a positively sloped curve and some inflation as an indication that growth is taking hold.

I agree with you that we need helicopter money. The Fed should credit the banks with as much money that is needed to prompt spending. Right now, it is just filling a hole as monthly debts come due --not promoting growth.

The Bank Of Canada Prepares Its Own Version Of QE To Counter An Expected Deep Recession
3 months ago

Thanks

I am not sure it's going to work because the problem is so vast and we do not really understand the full ramifications.

Coronavirus And The Empty Chocolate Factory
3 months ago

I agree that we should seriously consider helicopter money. This has always been the last resort deflationary world and it appears that we are heading in that direction.

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