I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...
more I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades I advised an independent brokerage firm on capital markets, and yield curve analysis and portfolio management. Prior to that, I worked as senior consultant, with Peat Marwick and Partners (PMP) and A.R.A Consultants, responsible for projects in infrastructure, industrial strategy and public finance. From 1972 to 1980, I was Director of Research at C.D. Howe Institute, overseeing research in Canada-US trade, currency developments, and Canadian monetary policies.
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Latest Comments
Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
Europe continues to be very tight fisted when it comes to government spending. There appears to be no change in that direction at all.
Inflation Fears Relating To $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Are Exaggerated
Arthur an excellent analysis of why inflation will be more like a spike in prices rather than a sustained increase in the price level. Yet I've never seen such a groundswell of opinion that is all one-sided. There's no historical record to sustained that view or that compares to what's happened during the pandemic. So it is a mystery to me how they come about with such strong growth forecast and inflationary fears. I think the FED has a better grasp of what likely happen than the Wall Street consensus. However that narrative will not die so soon and we can expect it to go on until proven wrong.
Inflation Is Broken
Housing costs are more related to the price of land. Land does not appreciate and is different from housing on the land which does depreciate. This complicates the measurement of housing costs per se.
The Pandemic Is Encouraging The Deleveraging Of The Economy
Very few talk about the collapse of velocity. Yet it is so pronounced as to completely offset anything on the monetary base.
When It Comes To The Canadian Dollar The Bank Of Canada Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
My pleasure
How Effective Are Government Stimulus Programs?
I fully agree. We had the same situation in Canada where money was shoved out the door indiscriminately. I think govts just panicked and took no time to take the measurement of those in need and those not. I think govts believe that the pandemic would be short-lived and everyone who lost a job would get it back soon, so just helping temporarily was all that was needed. Now, we know better and the longer term consequences are just starting to sink in.
The Federal govt in Canada has not indicated it will adopt a similar policy that Biden is proposing--- indiscriminate handouts. We are all a little wiser.
No Way To Sugar-Coat The Economic Cost Of Canada’s Unemployment Numbers
I never thought it was a question of balancing health against the economy There should be no trade off. A sick population gives rise to a sick economy
No Way To Sugar-Coat The Economic Cost Of Canada’s Unemployment Numbers
I agree with you that they should have locked down completely and thoroughly right from the beginning the way it was done in Wuhan. Politicians in North America are not strong enough to make those decisions and stick with them
Inflation Expectations Are Rising. Will Actual Inflation Follow?
A well reasoned position on the outlook for inflation. A destruction of velocity is one of the key factors in the deflationary forces of work
MacroView: 2021 – A Disappointment Of Growth And Disinflation
The Friedman equation MV=PT always assumes that the velocity is constant. He never envisioned a collapse in velocity as we are experiencing now. That's why the equation breaks down as a forecasting tool for inflation