Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 8
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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The Oil Situation - It Isn’t Good
Inventories keep falling, the SPR is at multi-decade lows, and supply for multiple reasons is not being replaced or increased.
Employment, Temp Help & Vehicle Sales
For economics it is the trend over months and years vs past months and years that provides the greatest insight.
It Actually Is A Little “Different” This Time
The traditional interpretation is that declines in Real GDP always reflect a decline in equity prices i.e. a major market correction. This time is not like the past.
EIA And Forecasts
News reports the EIA is backing away from an earlier forecast of a crude surplus in 2022.
Crude Inventory Down 13% With 1/2 Coming From SPR
We have a constantly shifting energy and drilling policy in the US now and that simply does not work for the long-term planning needed for the industry to make significant investments.
Dire Market Predictions Mount… Rate Spread Contradicts
Market psychology is impossible to predict with precision. One can make a good guess on direction but price and timing have always proven elusive.
The Oil Situation: Back To Peak Oil Talk
Higher oil prices and lower production indicate a disciplined CAPEX expenditure independent of near-term market conditions.
Job Opening Are A Psychologic, Not Economic Indicator
Job Openings series is a market psychology indicator. While Retail Sales, Employment, Vehicle Sales and etc are hard counts, market prices and Job Openings are market perceptions of future outcomes.
Valuation Warning…
The fundamental business DE is in has not changed materially nor has their end markets. For its valuation to be this extreme should have investors in it concerned.
You Can Watch Sentiment Change
We can expect higher equity prices ahead.
The SPR Reserves Continue To Fall To 2003 Levels
Exports of refined products have fallen sharply in recent weeks as a result. US Crude Production, inventory reductions continue to reflect conservative capital allocations.
Stick To The US
When investing one must always, always review initial assumptions and expectations. New data emerges daily that either supports one’s original thought process or looks very different in light of hindsight.
Oil And Gas Inventories Near Seasonally Historic Lows, Despite SPR Withdrawals
Don’t expect gas prices to moderate significantly anytime soon.
Inflation: Policy Matters More Than M2
The long-held M2 connection with inflation requires a reappraisal.
Rate Spread Update
Lower 10-year rates have been a key driver of belief in economic activity is weakening.
Each “Crisis” Has Been A Buying Opportunity
Every market has multiple events deemed a ‘pending crisis’ which results in panics some longer and some shorter.
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