Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more

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The Israeli Economy Defies Normative Economics: The Aftermath Of War
1 month ago
In over 50 years as an economist I cannot recall any country attracting investment in the midst of a war, especially one of the relative magnitude
Trump Stops Trade Talks With Canada Over Its Digital Services Tax
2 months ago
Right on regarding Canada's negotiating strategy. Trump never encountered a brilliant public servant like PM Carney.
U.S. Inflation Over The Next 5 Years
2 years ago

Arthur

As soon as the BoC announced rate hike of 50bps the a Canada 5 yr nominal bond yield dropped by 25bps and today another 8bps drop

The yield is inverting fast, so why is the bank raising rates?.

UK Treasury To Bail-Out Bank Of England's £11 Billion QE Losses
2 years ago

Why does it matter if the BoE takes a loss from bond trading? There are no shareholders holding equity in the bank,

As The Canadian Inflation Rate Starts To Decline, Will The Bank Of Canada Pause?
2 years ago

Yes. The Bank is trying real hard to recapture their credibility which suffered by they slow response in 2021.

They will argue that the low unemployment rates indicate that aggregate demand is too strong and that is the reason for keeping the pedal to the metal.  But food and energy are supply issues 

Canada’s Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been Shrinking For Quite A While
3 years ago

Arthur

The last chart does not identify which group is which.

Just How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Housing Market
3 years ago

Yours is an American perspective which does not apply to Canada,In 2008 the Canadian housing market did not see foreclosures or price collapse. The Canadian housing market was totally unaffected and not infected by the collapse in the US, Canadian banks did not buy US mortgages 

Just How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Housing Market
3 years ago

Yours is an American perspective which does not apply to Canada,In 2008 the Canadian housing market did not see foreclosures or price collapse. The Canadian housing market was totally unaffected and not infected by the collapse in the US, Canadian banks did not buy US mortgages 

Is The Bank Of Canada About To Make A Policy Mistake?
3 years ago

Stagnant income has been the lot of millions this century. Now the US is polarized because all boats have not risen. Stagnation gives rise to income inequality with great political consequences

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