Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E For The Bank Of Canada, It Is All About Closing The Output Gap, Not The Recent Surge In Consumer Prices
At today’s decision, the Governing Council judged that the recovery still needs extraordinary support from monetary policy.
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E Canadian Job Market Rebounds, But Only For Part-time Workers
The Canadian labour market is a long way from approaching, let alone returning to normal.
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E Do The Inflation Targets Set By The Central Banks Really Matter?
The bond market has staked out a position that rapid growth and accompanying inflation are no longer revealed in the tea leaves.
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E Liquidity Is Trapped In The Banks
In rare fashion, the banks are no longer greatly eager to have your deposits, despite the surge in individual and corporate cash balances looking for a home.
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E Canadian Net Worth Increases Despite COVID-19
We are all familiar with the Canadian data regarding the nearly millions of workers still without jobs. For these individuals it is the “worst of times.” But for the nation as a whole, it has been the “best of times.”
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E Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
The May employment numbers in Canada serve as a perfect example of how damaging the pandemic has been to the economy.
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Comments

Latest Comments
We’re Not In Kansas Anymore
6 days ago

How does a market crash lead to inflation?

Liquidity Is Trapped In The Banks
20 days ago

The essence of this problem of excess liquidity or the liquidity trap is slow economic growth. And that is why monetary stimulus is not able to do anything when real rates of interest are negative as they are today. The only solution to stimulate growth is expansionary fiscal policy which we now have an abundance because of the pandemic.

Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
1 month ago

Very valid point about correlation

Even if We get out of the third wave the output gap will be huge,I do not understand why anyone thinks the BoC will raise its rate next year.

Canadian Banks Are Not In A Lending Mood
2 months ago

I agree that the Fed should keep its mouth shut. Transparency gives the market a chance to game the the Fed's next move. It used to be that way before the 1990s

But then Greenspan started the whole idea of transparency and it's continues to this day.

The Bank Of Canada’s Uncertainty Principle
3 months ago

I think we're all flying at night with instrument panels.

The Fed And Bond Market Similar Inflation Views
3 months ago

Arthur

Do we know what amount of inflation above 2% will the Fed tolerate and for how long? Kinda of vague on their part.

Canadian Federal Government Looks To The Long-Term Bond Market To Finance Deficits
3 months ago

A gamble for whom? The issuer has to payments obligations of 2 % interest paymemts for 30 years...no gamble there. The bond purchaser say a insurer sells an insurance policy that is based on the guarantee 2% annual payment...no gamble for the insurance company.The recent increase in long rates is welcomed by institutional funds who now use their cash flow to improve their returns

The gamble you are talking about is borrowings at short rates and that is what the govts want to get away from by buying more duration

Inflation Or Disinflation?
3 months ago

What replaces the 60/40 split?

Do Not Look To Wage Gains To Contribute To Inflation
3 months ago

The issue is even deeper. Labour's share of national income has been on steep decline for about two decades. Labour costs are held in check by cheap imports and declining domestic production in conjunction. This is ongoing --- just look what happened to Amazon workers in the recent vote to unionize.

The loss of jobs during the height of the pandemic were mostly in lower wage industries ( food +beverage) tourism, So many of these workers have no skills that are needed in the labour short industries.

Negative Mortgage Rates In Europe Are The Ultimate Liquidity Trap
3 months ago

The Fed thinks it can let the air out of the bubble very slowly. It believes it can just change its QE program to let the air out. It remains to be seen that that is true

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (32 years 4 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)