Great graphs and overview. I think people get so caught up in the news that they fail to look objectively at things like commodity prices. In reality the global downturn finished off its clobbering of commodities and if it continues will move on to other parts of the market including the service sector which could make it worse not better, especially for the US which may be adversely affected by rebounding commodity prices as well given it's lax central bank policies.

Sadly they are also not good enough not just at forecasting but also taking actions that mitigate not exacerbate the negative effects of the business cycle. The current Fed's take to try to prevent it only is creating cycles so long and so severe that any downturn is a cause for concern for the entire market and fiscal stability. This should never be allowed to occur in the first place. No wonder the US has obliterated 2 central banks in the past and needs to reform this one which is increasingly socialist in nature even though they intentionally enrich those supporting it. Apparently, rich bankers are the biggest champions of socialist engineering which result in crooked enrichment more than providing anything meaningful to the middle or lower classes just like socialist/communists in the defunct USSR.

It is interesting to see such a fractional loss in the face of a fairly strong bond rally on news of a weaker than expected economy. It will be good to stay tuned as the real transition happens.

A weakening in the service sector of any amount is cause for concern. I think it is a good indicator to watch in the next few months to see if the global slowdown is moving into the rest of the economy even if people are trumpeting the exact opposite.

Sadly regulation, government bloat renamed stimulus, and monetary socialism directed at the banks and wealthy have not been the friend of anyone besides the privileged and politically entrenched it is meant to support. Sadly, the US seems to be constantly going this way and I'm not hopeful Trump will reverse this. Sadly, the camel that may break even the US' back is protectionism which shuts down the global economy bringing malaise to the globe just like it did in the great Depression.

You'd think we'd learn from others, like Japan, but apparently we don't. And you'd think we'd learn from history, but apparently our leaders prefer to stay blind and make up convenient lies than deal with reality.

The issue is punishing other countries look good even though it is logically apparent to any rational person who studied economics that in the end it hurts our own consumers and makes our own competitiveness worse not better over the long term. Unfortunately, any such moves will be based on looks and the recession it brings will be blamed on some other factor than their own actions.

I do not believe the market is running up on the expectation of tax cuts. If anything it is running up on expectation of more government spending. However, even then, Trump is not in office yet. The market is more appropriately running up on mildly stronger growth and tame inflation.

As always, the new President is acting like Santa Claus promising more government spending and tax relief. As always we will see what happens. If they get what he promises we will have more debt and less of an ability to pay it. If he delivers tax cuts and cuts spending not much will happen and if we get more spending and mildly increased taxes we will get not much either. That said, where we can get benefit is cutting the regulatory mess for small businesses which is mostly paperwork and mild to complex taxation. The speaker is right that no one in a small business wants to hire anyone if they can avoid it. It requires tons of added paperwork.

Stagflation may occur, however it is liable to creep up slowly. I don't expect anything to happen in 6-9 months out, however, 12 months it may start to occur depending on global trade. Going from very low inflation to more normalized won't cause that great of a burn unless it keeps going up or growth doesn't occur. At the outset, the downside to slightly higher inflation is partially offset from a healthier banking sector. After that there may be trouble.

Much has been said about China's inevitable fall. It is true it will face the same issues as Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. However, bubbles and balloons pop slowly and unexpectedly. One should not be eager to see it pop because it will have repercussions all over the globe. Also Trump will be getting advice from Republicans. Unless he wants to see a market crash he will be careful about a major global trade war. It will have nothing to do with China as much as the global economy which will hurt the US and China the most.

It is true China has a debt problem and a real estate bubble, however, the US does too. One should not throw stones at a glass house when you're in a glass house yourself.

Probably the only reason they said it at all was it was so obvious to depositors who are getting out of the bank they had no choice but to report it. I don't think this was a shock to anyone let alone Italy.