S&P 500 Snapshot: A Fractional Loss, But A Bond Rally
On the third market day of 2016 the S&P 500 took a breather with a fractional decline. The index stuttered at the open, hitting its 0.03% intraday high about 30 minutes into the trade. It then sold off to its late morning 0.45% intraday low. A relatively steady recovery effort trimmed the loss to 0.08% at the closing bell.
Here is a snapshot of the past five sessions.
The yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.37%, down nine BPs from the previous close and the lowest closing yield since December 7th. The rally in treasury prices, which move inversely with yields, is explained, logically enough, by CNBC as a result of uncertainty over Trump policies.
Here is daily chart of the index. Trading volume remained a tad below the 50-day moving average, which was already skewed somewhat lower by the slim holiday trade.
A Perspective on Drawdowns
Here's a snapshot of record highs and selloffs since the 2009 trough.
Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.
Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
A Perspective on Volatility
For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We've also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.
Disclosure: None.
It is interesting to see such a fractional loss in the face of a fairly strong bond rally on news of a weaker than expected economy. It will be good to stay tuned as the real transition happens.