Executive Officer at SME
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Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.

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E My Take On Recessionary Indicators
Despite the regularity of economic downturns and the existence of business cycles in a free market economy it is quite obvious that recession calling remains an art more than a science with the scientists being wrong consistently.
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Latest Comments
Don't Give Away Your Crude Gamma
1 day ago

Prices can rise significantly if war occurs or even if rumors grow. Sadly if there is war with Iran there is a good chance they will destroy more of Saudi Arabia's production in retaliation.

In this article: OIL
Market Talk – Tuesday, September 10
7 days ago

As they say some is better than none. This applies to China trade as it does with most things. It's especially true given the US isn't offering much besides an end to tariffs which will increasingly hurt the US more than China from here on.

Today's Move In WTI Crude Could Mean Trouble For The Canadian Dollar
7 days ago

Oil prices are stabilizing and may rise on Saudi statements and as people realize that big oil is no longer looking to drill new areas as much as acquire floundering small oil companies pumping at losses only to pay for their massive debt load.

Could Stocks Crash This Fall?
22 days ago

Charting doesn't help right now. The main issue is Trump's trade deals or lack thereof and his growing inability to understand trade deals must be done with allies and they must be based on compromise on both sides. There is no winner/loser in this game. Either both sides win or both sides lose.

In this article: SPX
AskSlim Market Week, Aug. 24
25 days ago

The problem is chaos is entering the system because no one knows what Trump will do tomorrow. So far it has been nothing good. Uncertainty is deadlier to the market that tariffs or trade wars.

In this video: ABA, AFL, BA, HD, HPQ, JWN, LOW, M, TGT, CREE, BABA
The Dog Days Of August Are Upon Us
25 days ago

Some are claiming tariffs aren't causing inflation, however they are. It is isolated to what is being tariffed is why it hasn't appeared everywhere like normal inflation.

www.cnbc.com/.../...rs-and-it-could-get-worse.html

They are also hurting the supply chain and global sales. The US is not insulated anymore by the negative effects of the widening trade war not to mention Trump's new tiffs with Europe after seeing no one is interested in following him as he insults them.

In this article: FXE, FXA, FXB
G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger
25 days ago

www.frbsf.org/.../inflationary-effects-of-trade-disputes-with-china/ Indeed tariffs are temporary, unless they are continually ratcheted up. The long term effect of ratcheting up tariffs would be a good economic thesis. The Trump administration’s latest tariff increases on Chinese imports will likely deliver a modest and temporary boost to U.S. inflation, in part reflecting the relatively small portion of American spending that goes to goods rather than services. www.wsj.com/.../what-will-trumps-latest-tariffs-mean-for-inflation-not-too-much-economists-say-11557999001 Inflation is inflation. One can argue tariffs slow the economy temporarily too, but the issue is they do much more if they become the status quo. They are disrupting pricing, logistics, and the supply chain now.

Way Beyond The ‘12%’
25 days ago

That is because manufacturing affects transportation, distribution, and all the services that go around selling manufactured goods. Sadly the trade war has hurt manufacturing as their imported raw material costs get disrupted and prices rise. Sadly even US steel makers are getting hurt. Thus the trade war is having an obvious negative impact on manufacturing, steel, transportation, oil (because of the economic slowdown as well as losing overseas markets like farming), and farming. Only slightly is China directly responsible for the negative effects of this.

The real issue is that tariffs are a hugely destructive force on the country using them. It is arguable that it is in the long run more destructive on the country using them than the country which is the target of such tariffs. This is especially true if they can manufacture and sell their wares elsewhere which China has been doing.

G7 To Deliver A Nothing Burger
25 days ago

With inflationary effects from more tariffs the Fed should actually raise rates. The tariff wars are a good reason no not cut rates, not the other way around. The problem is of course trade wars also slow the economy which is why they helped cause the great depression. You get inflation and slow the economy making them one of the worst taxation measures to use.

Trump feels like he has a iron fist to beat his allies with, in reality it is more like a cast which inhibits motion and weakens you more than others the longer you keep it on.

U.S. Dollar Index Review For Friday Aug. 23
25 days ago

Sadly, I don't think this will hurt the dollar that much because the Yuan will slide. And no it's not because of Chinese manipulation. In fact, China has been spending billions supporting their currency. That said. It is clear both should get a deal done. The issue is, like the Cuban Missile Crisis, there needs to be a way for both sides to claim victory.

With Trump trying to prove himself as a only I win negotiator, that may be impossible, especially since he is holding only cards that will hurt America more i he plays them. Trade wars hurt both players and seldom help either side embroiled in them. The good news is ending trade wars help both players and is why the US has prospered for so many years in the global economy. Much like the stock market, everyone can win with free trade and allies just like everyone looses with protectionism and enemies.

In this article: UUP, UDN
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Moon Kil Woong Commented on Don't Give Away Your Crude Gamma:

Prices can rise significantly if war occurs or even if rumors grow. Sadly if there is war with Iran there is a good chance they will destroy more of Saudi Arabia's production in retaliation.

Moon Kil Woong Commented on Market Talk – Tuesday, September 10:

As they say some is better than none. This applies to China trade as it does with most things. It's especially true given the US isn't offering much besides an end to tariffs which will increasingly hurt...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on Today's Move In WTI Crude Could Mean Trouble For The Canadian Dollar:

Oil prices are stabilizing and may rise on Saudi statements and as people realize that big oil is no longer looking to drill new areas as much as acquire floundering small oil companies pumping at losses...

more
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