Executive Officer at SME
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Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.

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E My Take On Recessionary Indicators
Despite the regularity of economic downturns and the existence of business cycles in a free market economy it is quite obvious that recession calling remains an art more than a science with the scientists being wrong consistently.
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Boom-Bust Barometer Biffs Badly
2 days ago

The semi cycle is over but the rest of the economy is ok unless trade wars get worse. Despite Trumps interest in exacerbating them Republicans seem to be starting to push back.

Downward Reversal In Oil Is Knocking On The Door
2 days ago

Actually drawn out longer this is merely a stopping of a run up that is quite natural. Once can't expect the trend line drawn here to continue on forever. That, doesn't mean oil is set for a collapse. I also think that the oil build in the US is more a US issue as will a gas build up as Trump makes the trade war with China worse. Economically a fast decoupling of the US and China is and will be bad for both countries.

In this article: OILB
Slim Pickings In The Utilities Sector
11 days ago

Good points on valuation. Many are in this sector for the dividends and that alone. This will be a tough sector, especially if oil prices rise.

A Year Of Trade Losses In U.S.-China Tariff War
15 days ago

The decrease is really at the cost to China due not so much to the US buying less but the simple fact manufacturing is fleeing to SE ASia. This would have happened with or without the tariffs. Both countries are not better off with a trade war and I think most everyone at the table knows it. Tariff China mode = the Federal Reserve raising rates to fight artificial inflation and/or further slowdown in the US economy. Stagflation can end any cycle no matter how strong the economy is.

What Could Go Wrong? The Fed Warns On Corporate Debt
15 days ago

The main concern should be on the banks financing zombie debt. It is widely known a lot of small oil gambles are losses and are not able to ever pay up or be profitable. Yet big banks keep financing them because this is the only way they can keep paying their debt. Everyone know the outcome of such behavior yet it is still done. As for other corporate debt that can be financed off of revenue streams, they seem ok.

We will see 2022 when the debt payments spike how corporate debt does as a whole. I don't see an eminent trigger besides a full on trade war and financial unwinding. Trump's leverage at the table for trade wars has diminished as everyone should have known as his terms drag on. A deal is better than no deal and further tariffs will endanger the economy and ruin his re-election hopes. I hope better minds prevail for the US and the global economy. As we can see tariffs have done little from stopping the trade deficit from China besides taxing the US consumer to the ground.

Risk Aversion Deepening On Trade War & Middle East Tension
15 days ago

A lot of money has been bet against oil recently on China trade woes, however, they are missing the point that oil demand across the globe is increasing and that the Middle East is becoming more unstable not less. Oil companies that benefit from rising and falling oil prices should trade at a premium not a discount.

US Futures Slide, Chinese Stocks Tumble After Beijing Threatens To Pull The Kool-Aid
1 month ago

Oil is becoming increasingly important despite the large reserves which is mitigated by the even larger growth in demand. This summer will be a hot one for oil companies. If you are worried that this will spur oversupply and it will all come down after summer driving season Exxon is a safe play. It makes money even if oil prices drop. It made money in the downturn and even bought back stock.

12 Monster Stock Market Predictions For The Week Of April 22
1 month ago

I expect a mild week with some downside. We will see what comes next to shake up the market.

In this article: AMD, ACAD, AAPL, NFLX, QCOM, SPY, XBI, BABA, JD, SQ, ROKU
The Lead-Lag Report: Nearing Changes Everywhere
1 month ago

Thanks for the sectoral graphics. It is amazing people aren't talking about healthcare's horrible performance more which is worse than manufacturing and commodities which gets a lot of coverage.

Market Briefing For Monday, April 22
1 month ago

The Apple Qualcomm deal is a marriage of convenience more than anything long term or stable. They both didn't want the risk of a drawn out court battle and having to morph their business around each other at great cost. That said, they both will be looking for alternatives and they both are not fair players. Expect war to emerge again once one finds out the other doesn't need them.

In this article: T, VIX
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Moon Kil Woong Commented on Boom-Bust Barometer Biffs Badly:

The semi cycle is over but the rest of the economy is ok unless trade wars get worse. Despite Trumps interest in exacerbating them Republicans seem to be starting to push back.

Moon Kil Woong Commented on Downward Reversal in Oil Is Knocking on the Door:

Actually drawn out longer this is merely a stopping of a run up that is quite natural. Once can't expect the trend line drawn here to continue on forever. That, doesn't mean oil is set for a collapse. I a...

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