COVID Vaccines And The Stock Market
The stock market appears to be heavily betting on vaccines from Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). However, I took a look at the websites for both vaccines.
All I see is the above 90 percent effectiveness for both. I see nothing stating how long the protection will last. This is a huge problem. Dr. Fauci raised a red flag by stating that the vaccine may not put an end to the pandemic. The CDC has affirmed this is not an easy fix, although reinfection is not frequent for a short duration. The long term may prove to be another story. Staying power of the vaccines to ward off reinfection could be crucial to the eradication of the COVID-19 virus.
Perhaps a combination of vaccines, masks, and lockdowns could significantly slow the virus. But human compliance is necessary on all fronts. In other nations, lockdowns come with money from the government to aid business and workers. As long as Mitch McConnell is in charge, the best we could hope for is hit and miss with the aid.
But we cannot even get politicians to wear masks. And we know that some people can get the virus multiple times. Other diseases like Sars gave antibody protection for long periods. This COVID-19 Coronavirus does not, as those getting sick have protection for only 90 days.
The stock market is betting on eradication. Vaccine news generally pushes stocks up. We all want an end to the virus. We are getting tired, but we have to maintain vigilance in order to slow the explosion of disease.
Some doctors are giving up on quarantine. I have a friend in a northern Nevada city who was not given a note from her doctor even though she was positive and ill. Giving up on quarantine/isolation when the antibodies don't last is insanity.
Spanish Flu
The problem with the Spanish Flu pandemic 100 years ago is that wartime travel spread the disease. People were tired of the Spanish Flu.
The Anti-mask Society sprung up. The second wave hit. People had stopped the quarantines and stopped wearing masks. Many died.
A third wave was deadly but came back to the USA from Australia. Woodrow Wilson got it. And he attempted to hide it. 50 million people worldwide died from the Spanish flu virus. Lack of quarantine/isolation was crucial to the spread of the disease. Some leaders who knew the dangers minimized them, creating an even larger pandemic. Sound familiar?
Restaurants and Travel Now
With the current pandemic, airline and cruise ship travel spread the virus, in addition to eating in restaurants and engaging bars and gyms.
So, until this virus lifts, it is reckless to eat in restaurants. This does not mean restaurants cannot serve takeout as long as they are safe in their preparation. Hot food is safest.
Below is a list of websites that relate to this very sobering subject. People will still spend money. At home, stocks are doing well. Return to normal stocks are speculative, perhaps more speculative than investors think.
The billion or maybe trillion-dollar question remains: Will vaccines eradicate the Coronavirus? The answer is not clear cut.
Disclosure: I have no financial interest in any companies or industries mentioned. I am not an investment counselor nor am I an attorney so my views are not to be considered investment ...
What's your view on the current market?
It is still not clear. We haven't dealt with corona and its getting wose. Vaccines are still not the answer and a real solution is not being looked at.
Thanks Gary, I bet you are excited for the inauguration!
Update 2: I have learned that the health department took over regarding the health of my Covid friend, allowing her to recuperate. It was the hospital that was lax and cleared her without a new Covid test. The health department realized she was still sick and put the breaks on clearing her. I don't know how widespread hospital incompetence is in America. But it does exist.
Update 1: Based on personal information, it appears that Northern Nevada Health Departments are clearing people of Covid without more testing to see if they are still positive! This gives a false indication of how many people are currently sick with the disease. If this is going on in too many places in America, people will spread the disease quickly, thinking they were healthy enough to be out in public.
William K.
• 4 minutes ago • Member's comment
Some folks will never learn. That is nothing new. The change is in the amount of damage that the fools can cause. This plague is different, it is a very well designed weapon of serious destruction. Many aspects of this disease appear to be in response to the success of efforts to prevent the spread of prior versions. This virus does not appear to be just the result of random evolution, at least that is how it looks to me.
And yet if a hundred trainloads of effective vaccine arrived this evening it would still be months before the health in general improved and the plague was beaten back.
Worse yet, the collection of fools who fear medication is growing, and promising to remain a vector of infection. The means of dealing with that sector are not so clear just yet.
The threat of withholding treatment from those who refuse to be vaccinated might possibly be effective, it could certainly help conserve resources at least. Sort of like natural selection. Quite cruel, but effective. I am not advocating it now.
Interesting point of view. Doctors have to treat everyone, taking an oath to do so. So withholding treatment would not be permitted. Also, there are legitimate concerns regarding long term effects of the vaccines. But it is a valuable tool that is sitting in warehouses because we have a dolt for president.
Dreadful but interesting speculation. Hoping it all doesn't come true.
It is doubtful they will eradicate the virus, especially since they are designed to prevent the infection from spreading an a person not killing the virus and none are close to 100% effective. As I know, there are no studies to say if any of the vaccines prevent transmission if one with the vaccine gets Covid. I figure that whatever vaccine is used will lead to mutations and be ineffective rapidly.
You have studied the science more than I, Moon. I think your analysis is sobering. Summer may allow for some retreat of the virus. That would be the time to try containment.
What we need to do is work with and advance research in treating those that catch the disease or currently have it. They seem to be a lost voice in all this. This may be a case where treatment beats a "cure" much like the flu. We need to prevent it from being fatal and address the people suffering from heart issues, strokes, etc. from Covid who are often not counted or treated correctly by our system. Covid has killed more people than we currently acknowledge.
I agree about helping the already ill. Not enough done. But nursing homes made money off Covid. Hard to tell how those deaths were counted, Moon. And now people will not trust loved ones to nursing home. Investor greed may have weakened that business model.
Yes the elderly are being hit the worst and there seems to be little care about them in Washington. Sadly they aren't the hot demographic politicians are after.
I believe Pfizer's vaccine is 90% effective and Moderna's about 95% effective. The odds of someone with the vaccine getting Covid should be very small. As long as the percentage of people who can get infected are relatively low, and that they infect an average of <1 person each, the virus will become eradicated.
Yes, that is key. What is the reinfection rate, especially after antibodies wear off. This disease has the concern that antibodies are weak and it could stay with us far longer than many are predicting.
I read that Pfizer claims immunity will last 1 year if a person takes 2 doses. I didn't catch what Moderna had to say about their vaccine Anyone know?
Regardless, both are likely better than the approximate 2 months of immunity the WHO said people currently get naturally when they recover from the disease.
That's because taking more than 2 doses of a vaccine makes it ineffective for taking it for a few years. I would like to see science and proof of its effectiveness and longevity. The push to rush it makes many like me more doubtful of what they claim.
Thanks. I would like to see it in writing.
Gary, your links don't seem to be working.
The links are now available. Sorry for my mistake!
Yes. It is an edit issue. I have notified the editors and have sent them the correct links. Is there a particular article?