Nice holiday article.

Sadly the whole world is driving out employment due to efficiency much like the book "The Affluent Society" predicted. Unless new technology and new types of jobs are created not the US but the world will find ever increasing numbers of dissatisfied unemployed.

Protectionism is the way to catastrophic failure. It always has been and always will be. Hiding the fact you can't compete through trade barriers is bad, but much worse is the loss of efficiency, price stability, access to global markets, and enough supply that comes with it. Not many countries want to be like North Korea willingly.

Indeed, however Tesla is under increasing pressure to get prices down and moving manufacturing to China and automation would help. Sadly Tesla has competition coming even in China and the electric car industry is poised for major upsets including hydrogen cars. Tesla would be wise to think of market share to save its position and to get economies of scale for the future even at a loss as they drive down prices and hopefully become efficient. So far, even at these prices Tesla is in trouble with profitability. Something needs to be done sooner rather than later.

Sadly those looking for growth gravitate to the most heavily pushed stocks with prior growth. Starbucks is maturing and is a large cap, I wouldn't call it a strong growth stock anymore. Apple will keep growing like Starbucks but it is priced into the stock and it needs a new growth driver as its phone growth is already priced into the stock.

Oftentimes great growth requires some risk. This risk is a lot on top of the market risk but they also tend to trade somewhat separate from the market so a good one is an imperfect market hedge.

Good article. Sadly the US and Japan have caused massive asset inflation yet again and are desperate to sustain it long enough so it doesn't pop. This is making them employ more and more uncapitalistic functions that will have worse and worse repercussions.

I have been stating a hike was not happening for a long time too except by the end of the year. That said, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly hike at least once more next year. I have no doubt the socialist Fed hates the idea of a Republican President. Hopefully she will be replaced. Even so, the Fed needs to raise rates back to normalcy, so a Fed hike late may not be that bad given they can lower it when a downturn happens like normal.

This Federal Reserve is playing with dangerous fire keeping rates this low for this long into any cycle.

I have been stating a hike was not happening for a long time too except by the end of the year. That said, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly hike at least once more next year. I have no doubt the socialist Fed hates the idea of a Republican President. Hopefully she will be replaced. Even so, the Fed needs to raise rates back to normalcy, so a Fed hike late may not be that bad given they can lower it when a downturn happens like normal.

This Federal Reserve is playing with dangerous fire keeping rates this low for this long into any cycle.

Great charts and good assumptions, however, it usually takes 6 months before the effects of a new President is felt putting the recent rise firmly in the current market as it is. It is a bit much to make any major speculations besides the direction of the Federal Reserve.

I agree that raising rates at the end of a cycle is dangerous. This alone should make people worry which is why people are rushing into the stock market and out of bonds. Sadly, few stocks actually usually benefit from higher rates initially and only do later if the economy expands substantially more than interest rates and inflation rise.

Once again, we will see what happens. If Trump engages in even greater Democratic style deficit spending we may see inflation spike with economic growth failing to keep up, especially if a trade war erupts. If trump can stimulate small business which is the backbone of a strong economy we can see a real revival of our economic growth despite the long cycle.

This said, it's best to bide your time and wait patiently while getting out of super interest rate sensitive investments that decline on rising rates and investing in what potentially can grow if the economy is revitalized by a set of business friendly changes in government.

Now I know why Indians want to hoard gold. What a mess the government is making. They are undermining their own trust in their currency.

The market hopes for growth. It is too soon to expect it besides the growth from Obamas policies. In reality global trade wars have so frightened people there is like a last hurrah mass buying these last months for those trying to get what they can before something disrupts it. Buying before a storm is good for a economy only so much as no storm arises. Those buying seem to differ that all will be peaceful.

A China trade wart would in itself be a mass shock to the market and prices. However, it will cause faster growth of even more price competitive players unless the US decides to block it all which will crash the economy. If you want negative growth that would be a great way to do it. If you want America to stop being a super power that would be a great start. If you want a horrid economy imagine an America with no trading partners besides Canada.